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Champions League scenarios: What Real Madrid, Manchester City, Milan, Juventus and more need to do to advance

The first legs of the Champions League knockout phase has come to a close and none of the eight matches ended in a draw. With a spot in the round of 16 on the line, most clashes are hanging in the balance as Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain were the only teams to win their matches by more than one goal. 

In what has already been an exciting introduction to the new Champions League format this stage before the round of 16 has been approached with appropriate tension. With so many close matches, teams will put everything that they can into the second legs of the tournament giving us a cracking finish to affairs. Let’s take a look at what each team needs in the remaining matches:

Feyenoord 1, Milan 0

Team: Milan
What went wrong: Attack-heavy formation
How to fix it: Sergio Conceicao took a risk rolling out a new formation in Champions League play, but in a way, his hands were tied with Yunus Musah suspended for the first leg. Joao Felix, Santiago Gimenez, Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic is a bit too much attack and not enough balance for Milan. Pulisic wasn’t able to get on the ball, taking only 36 touches and creating one chance with Felix’s inclusion. Milan will be able to change that with Musah back in the second leg because balance is needed.

Team: Feyenoord
What went right: Bringing in a new manager
How to do it again: It was quite a decision for Feyenoord to replace Brian Priske with Pascal Bosschaart as the interim manager of the team ahead of the knockout stage but it was a decision that worked out in a big way. Feyenoord will want to have scored more than just a goal in the clash but they now will head to Milan with a one-goal lead on aggregate and a legit shot at the round of 16 which is all that they can ask for.

Scenario: A Milan win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send Milan to the round of 16. Any other result would see Feyenoord move on.

Monaco 0, Benfica 1

Team: Monaco
What went wrong: Everything
How to fix it: Going down to 10 men because midfielder Al Murati wanted a Benfica player to get a yellow card hurts in what was a winnable game in France. He pressed for a yellow for the opponents and ended up getting his second as a result in a brutal situation. A team will never want to drop the home leg of a knockout tournament but that’s just what Monaco did to give Benfica a major chance to finish this in Portugal. It’s not like Monaco were performing well prior to the red card either so they’re now up against it.

Team: Benfica
What went right: Right time, right place for Vangelis Pavlidis
How to do it again: Taking care of business in Monaco is all down to Benfica’s Greek striker pulling off an audacious chip to go ahead in the match. Benfica got some help after the fact to keep their lead but now being able to take a slim advantage home to Portugal, Bruno Lage will feel good about his chances.

Scenario: A Monaco win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send Monaco to the round of 16. Any other result would see Benfica move on.

Celtic 1, Bayern Munich 2

Team: Celtic
What went wrong: Just offside
How to fix it: Celtic’s attack caused Bayern Munich trouble with two goals being ruled out due to the offside flag. Daizen Maeda did get a goal back in the 79th minute of play which will make things interesting in Germany but a few centimeters of a difference and Celtic would be leading this. Given the tension that this will provide in Germany, all Celtic have to do is keep doing what they’re doing but hold their runs next time.

Team: Bayern Munich
What went right: Having Harry Kane
How to do it again: Bayern’s defense left much to be desired in Glasgow but all it takes is two chances to make a tie. Bayern were able to score via Harry Kane and Michael Olise which is enough to send this to Germany with a one-goal lead. While it would’ve been great to put the tie out of hand in Scotland, Celtic Park is no easy place to play 

Scenario: A Celtic win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send Celtic to the round of 16. Any other result would see Bayern Munich move on.

Club Brugge 2, Atalanta 1

Team: Atalanta
What went wrong: Not taking chances
How to fix it: Without Ademola Lookman, the Atalanta attack lacks its usual balance and it showed with only the one goal while facing a suspect Brugge defense. Mateo Retegui was coming off a four-goal performance but wasn’t able to ride that form into an all-important goal in this match. Atalanta will feel hard done for the harsh penalty call late on, but with the second leg taking place at home, there won’t be too much worry as this is a winnable tie. 

Team: Club Brugge
What went right: Late fortune
How to do it again: There was a controversial penalty awarded at the end of the match as Gustaf Nilsson went down in the box in stoppage time from a challenge by Isak Hien. The contact seemed to be minimal but a penalty was awarded, turning a draw into an important Brugge victory. The Belgian side did a lot right during the game but a draw was a fair result between them so that decision deciding things is a little disappointing. They’ll have to keep their nerve in Bergamo but this is anyone’s game.

Scenario: An Atalanta win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send Atalanta to the round of 16. Any other result would see Club Brugge move on.

Manchester City 2, Real Madrid 3

Team: Manchester City
What went wrong: Ederson
How to fix it: City have already tried dropping Ederson for Stefan Ortega previously, so the best fix for dealing with Ederson’s issues won’t be found until the summer when tough transfer decisions will need to be made. But heading to Madrid for the second leg, City will need at least a brace from Erling Haaland to have a chance. City have now dropped four Champions League games after leading and few teams are better at coming from behind than Real Madrid. It has been clear for a while that things aren’t quite right with this City team and it could lead to them failing to reach the round of 16.

Team: Real Madrid 
What went right: Being Real Madrid
How to do it again: There is no team that, no matter how they play in a game, inspires more confidence in an eventual victory than Real Madrid. From a goal off of Mbappe’s shin, a finish from former City player Brahim Diaz to heroics from Jude Bellingham, Los Blancos got the job done despite missing key parts of the team. Fede Valverde had to feature at right back due to injuries but his presence did help Madrid pull off a coordinated team press that may not have been possible with other players in that role. No matter what, Carlo Ancelotti has this team set up to succeed. 

Scenario: A Manchester City win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send City to the round of 16. Any other result would see Real Madrid move on.

Man City tried to out-Real Madrid Los Blancos but Champions League holders do what they always do

James Benge

Brest 0, PSG 3

Team: Brest
What went wrong: Came up against Ousmane Dembele on the wrong day.
How to fix it: While Brest are in their Champions League debut, coming up against PSG almost sealed their fate before this match began. With the victory, PSG are now unbeaten in their last 31 games facing Brest and while the home side may have been unlucky to not score a goal, their chances of advancing past the knockout stage would always be slim. Allowing a brace to Dembele will only increase the chance of falling in Paris but it doesn’t do much to change the tie. They need a miracle. 

Team: PSG
What went right: Taking care of business early
How to do it again: While PSG have struggled at times even when favored in matches, Dembele’s form is making that a thing of the past. With 15 goals in 2025 and counting, the forward has provided a new focal point to the attack even without new signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia getting integrated. It’ll still be an uphill battle for PSG to continue in the competition past the round of 16 with either Liverpool or Barcelona awaiting them, but this team is doing what they need to in order to progress further.

Scenario: As long as PSG don’t lose by more than two goals, they’ll advance to the round of 16. Brest will need to win by three goals in regulation to force extra time and a potential penalty shootout. To avoid that, Brest will need to win by four or more goals.

Juventus 2, PSV 1

Team: PSV
What went wrong: Injuries
How to fix it:  In reality, PSV were going to be up against it without Malik Tillman and Ricardo Pepi, and while they created chances against Juventus, most of their 15 shots came from low-percentage areas. Ivan Perisic gave them a chance by scoring the fifth goal against Juventus of his career. With the second leg taking place in the Netherlands, PSV will have a chance especially if they can score an early goal at home but it’s a slim one with how well Juventus can defend.

Team: Juventus
What went right: Timely finishes
How to do it again: With a laser from Weston McKennie and a goal off the bench from Samuel Mbangula, Thiago Motta is slowly getting more out of what was an anemic Juventus attack. They’ve now scored two or more goals in three consecutive matches following the arrival of Randal Kolo Muani after failing to do so in five of the six matches before that. Juventus have a solid defense and if they can give Michele Di Gregorio a two-goal lead to protect in net, the odds are that he’ll ensure that they keep it. Now heading to the Netherlands with a one-goal lead, if Juventus can keep things tight, the round of 16 awaits.

Scenario: A PSV win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send the Dutch side to the round of 16. Any other result would see Juventus move on. Just a draw will do it for Juve.

Sporting CP 0, Borussia Dortmund 3

Team: Sporting CP
What went wrong: Missing Ruben Amorim
How to fix it: For Sporting to do anything, Viktor Gyokeres needs to go nuclear and that may not be possible as this is a team that has spiraled in European competition since losing their former manager, Amorim, to Manchester United. There’s a route back with a resounding victory in Germany but that’s quite hard to envision when Sporting couldn’t even find a goal in the first leg of play. Now on their third manager of the season, it’s time to focus on domestic play.

Team: Borussia Dortmund
What went right: The second half
How to do it again: Dortmund withstood Sporting in the first half of play to take advantage in the second half scoring three goals and taking complete control of the tie. Any time a side can hang a crooked number in the away leg of a knockout fixture, it will boost confidence. Three different players found the back of the next and barring a disaster, Dortmund will head to the round of 16.

Scenario: As long as Dortmund don’t lose by more than two goals, they’ll advance to the round of 16. Sporting will need to win by three goals in regulation to force extra time and a potential penalty shootout. To avoid that, Sporting will need to win by four or more goals.

Schedule of second legs

All times Eastern, all matches are available on Paramount+

Tuesday, Feb. 18

  • Milan vs. Feyenoord, 12:45 p.m.
  • Benfica vs. Monaco, 3 p.m.
  • Atalanta vs. Club Brugge, 3 p.m.
  • Bayern Munich vs. Celtic, 3 p.m.

Wednesday, Feb. 19

  • Dortmund vs. Sporting CP, 12:45 p.m.
  • Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, 3 p.m.
  • PSG vs. Brest, 3 p.m.
  • PSV vs. Juventus, 3 p.m.



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