Championship Sunday is finally here. We have two games to determine which teams represent the AFC and NFC in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, and it is going to be one heck of a show.
We’re analyzing things from every conceivable angle here at CBSSports.com, and one of the ways we’re doing so is with tale-of-the-tape-style breakdowns, determining which team has the advantage at each and every position group. In the space below, we’ll start with the AFC.
Quarterback
Josh Allen had a better 2024 regular season than did Patrick Mahomes. He averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions, took fewer sacks, created more explosive plays and added more expected points per dropback, via TruMedia. And yet … there is no possible way that one can say any other QB in this league is better than Mahomes. Not given what we know about Mahomes, what he’s capable of, what he does on a weekly basis in the playoffs and even what he’s done against this specific Bills team.
Advantage: Chiefs
2025 AFC Championship: Travis Kelce, third-down defense among key factors in determining Bills-Chiefs winner
Tyler Sullivan
Running back
James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have become one of the best backfield groups in the NFL. If Isiah Pacheco were still playing at the peak of his powers like he was over the last two seasons, we might be able to have a bit more of a debate here. But what the Chiefs are getting out of their Pacheco-and-Kareem Hunt backfield at the moment pales in comparison to what Buffalo’s trio brings to the table.
Advantage: Bills
Pass catchers
Did you see Travis Kelce last week? Do you remember that he somehow does this every damn year? Throw in Xavier Worthy’s development and the presence of additional threats like DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, and it’s easy to see why you’d lean in Kansas City’s direction — which is honestly kind of shocking given how this group looked at various times this season. Khalil Shakir is an excellent weapon for Allen, but the rest of his pass catchers are strictly role players, with none of Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper (despite his reputation), Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins or even Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox doing much to distinguish themselves so far this season.
Advantage: Chiefs
Offensive line
Kansas City’s weakness at the tackle spots would have tipped this pretty definitively in Buffalo’s favor before the Chiefs slid Joe Thuney outside to solidify the left tackle spot. As it is, though, the relative weakness at right tackle is enough to keep the advantage in the Bills’ column here. The group in front of Allen, Cook & Co. cleared the way for a quarterback who was rarely under quick pressure and a run game that was able to create yards before contact at a high level.
Advantage: Bills
Defensive line
When you start with the great Chris Jones, it takes a lot for the other team to overcome your head start on the defensive line. When you add in players like George Karlaftis, Michael Danna, Charles Omenihu, Mike Pennel and more, it takes even more to do so. The Bills can damn near get there with Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips and the rest of their group up front. But the sheer game-wrecking ability Jones brings to the table dwarfs what anyone else in either unit has, and so we lean in Kansas City’s direction.
Advantage: Chiefs
Linebackers
Before last week, we might have been leaning toward the Chiefs here. But Matt Milano appears to be back at full strength, and he and Terrel Bernard might somehow be even better than Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. It’s close, but we’re leaning into the prowess of the former All-Pro — even if he has now played in just 11 games over the last two years.
Advantage: Bills
Secondary
Buffalo’s secondary is greater than the sum of its parts, thanks in large part to the way Sean McDermott is able to get them to play with such cohesion. But Kansas City has the talent advantage, especially with Jaylen Watson back in the lineup, and especially with the Bills’ injury issues at safety. Trent McDuffie is the best player in either defensive backfield, and Buffalo’s well-balanced group just doesn’t have quite enough to make up the gap.
Advantage: Chiefs
Specialists
Given Tyler Bass’ struggles and Harrison Butker’s reliability this season, the gap between Buffalo’s punting and return units would have to be pretty sizable to give the Bills an advantage here, and it’s really not.
Advantage: Chiefs
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