There are just two games left to play before we find out the matchup for Super Bowl LIX. Championship Sunday will treat us to two absolutely fascinating matchups as we determine which teams will ultimately represent the AFC and NFC in New Orleans next month.
In the AFC, we have the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs playing host to one of their chief rivals during this era of dominance, the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City has been getting better with each passing week, which is a scary thought for a team that was already the No. 1 seed in the conference. But improving health and the effect it’s had on the offense will do that for you.
Buffalo was a steamroller for much of the season and last week took out the other top contender to Kansas City’s throne by defeating the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills have had their shot at Kansas City before and nearly got over the top — only to come up (sorry, Bills fans) 13 seconds short.
Can Kansas City defend its crown, or will the Bills finally slay their dragon? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Chiefs vs. Bills where to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 26 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 48.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Bills have the ball
The Bills have an advantage, and not necessarily where you would expect. The biggest way the Bills can press on their opponent’s weakness is by … taking the ball out of their best player’s hands?
Similar to what we saw last week against the Ravens, getting into heavier looks and running the ball may be Buffalo’s best path here. The Chiefs aren’t nearly as good against the run as are the Ravens, and we have seen throughout the season that the Bills can run it on just about anybody with the combination of James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. It helps that Josh Allen himself is a significant factor in the run game, both as a scrambler and via designed runs like power, counter or sweep, or as a quarterback sneak artist.
Do the Bills really want to minimize Allen’s imprint on the game? Not as a conscious decision because he can’t do it, obviously. We know he can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in a way nobody else in the league can. We’ve seen it before. But playing a ball-control, grind-the-clock style of offense might just be the way to go here. Over the second half of the season, the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry, and 1.61 per carry before contact, via Tru Media. That’s the kind of thing you can take advantage of in a one-game sample.
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In the passing game, there may also be some advantages to press. Khalil Shakir working against Chamarri Conner in the slot is one of them. Shakir is Buffalo’s most reliable pass-catcher, while Conner is the least reliable of Kansas City’s defensive backs in coverage.
It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs actually stick with him in the slot or if they want to move Trent McDuffie inside to cover Shakir and open themselves up to somebody else potentially taking advantage of Nazeeh Johnson on the outside. It’s an open question as to whether any of Buffalo’s perimeter wide receivers can actually do that at this point. Amari Cooper has been a non-factor in recent weeks, Keon Coleman is not yet a consistent threat and Mack Hollins is more of a role player and occasional deep threat than someone with whom you want to pepper targets.
Up front, priority No. 1 is making sure Chris Jones does not wreck the game by himself. A run-focused game plan helps a little bit on that front, though he does tend to turn up his run defense in the playoffs compared with the regular season. Even if you stop him from completely collapsing the pocket, though, you still have to deal with the likes of George Karlaftis and Mike Danna and Charles Omenihu and even Leo Chenal, when he plays along the defensive front. That’s all easier said than done, though Buffalo having right tackle Spencer Brown this time around makes it easier to handle Karlaftis, in particular.
Of course, we are also likely to see some absolutely crazy blitzes coming from Steve Spagnuolo, when he gets the opportunity to dial them up. How Allen comports himself in those situations, and whether he can beat the blitz with either a quick throw or by escaping the pocket and taking off downfield. will play a massive role in deciding the outcome here.
When the Chiefs have the ball
We similarly know the deal on this side of the ball. We’ve seen this matchup so many times at this point, that it’s difficult to come up with anything new to say. Of course, that doesn’t mean the matchup isn’t still interesting. It always is.
Watching how the Bills decide to distribute their coverage matrix in this game is going to be fascinating. Buffalo is one of the most zone-heavy teams in the NFL. The Chiefs eat up zone coverage as well as any team in the league. Will the Bills stick with their usual M.O. and allow Mahomes to work his way down the field with the type of quick, underneath passes that he uses better than anyone in the league? Or will they go to more man coverage and try to force Kansas City’s pass-catchers to get open on their own?
The latter strategy seems better, but it opens up the Bills to the possibility of allowing big plays both through the air (in the scramble drill) and on the ground (when Mahomes himself takes off downfield). Is opening up those avenues for explosive plays worth it, when you’re venturing outside your comfort zone to do it? That’s something that Sean McDermott will have to decide.
Then there are the actual coverage matchups. With both Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard healthy, the Bills have one of the best duos for dealing with Travis Kelce. But can Kelce get himself matched up on Damar Hamlin instead? And if Taylor Rapp doesn’t play, can Kelce take advantage of Cole Bishop and Cam Lewis? The potential of those matchups working against Buffalo would seemingly be another reason to stick with a heavy dose of zone, even if it means freely giving up the small chunks of yardage in front of the coverage.
On the outside, the Bills have a trio of corners who should be able to hang with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, the latter two of whom were ultimately not very involved last week against Houston. They play on the perimeter most often and will therefore see a lot of Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, while Worthy (and occasionally Brown, who does bump into the slot) will see more of Taron Johnson while working on the inside. Keeping up with Worthy and Brown’s speed is the biggest test for Buffalo here, while Hopkins’ contested-catch abilities will come into play if the Bills do decide to play a heavier dose of man.
Up front, the Bills have to find a way to take advantage of the weak link in Kansas City’s offensive line: right tackle Jawaan Taylor. He’s prone to penalties and can be beaten around the edge, so getting him matched up with Greg Rousseau and/or Von Miller throughout the game will be important. Figure out the best way to beat him and then hammer it over and over until Kansas City is forced to adjust.
One of those adjustments is likely to be heavier personnel groupings. The Bills tend to stay in nickel when teams go to 12 or even 13 personnel, so the Chiefs could decide that their best path here is to go heavy and try to run it against Buffalo’s light defensive looks. That was probably easier in years past when the run game was more powerful and dynamic than it is right now with an aging Kareem Hunt and a limited Isiah Pacheco, but the Chiefs can still get it done. The interior of Buffalo’s defensive line, which, again, is on the smaller side, will have its hands full working against Kansas City’s interior OL, but with Joe Thuney kicked outside to tackle, that challenge is ever-so-slightly less imposing than it has been in many recent matchups.
Prediction
The Bills have some matchup advantages here. There’s a reason that this game is considered basically a coin flip despite the fact that it’s taking place at Arrowhead. Top to bottom, Buffalo probably even has the better roster. This season, the Bills’ quarterback has even played better. And yet … I just cannot bring myself to pick against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. At least not until somebody actually beats them. It’ll be close. It might even be heartbreaking. Again. But it’ll be the Chiefs coming out on top. Again. Pick: Chiefs 24, Bills 23
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