Well, folks, Super Bowl LIX is finally here. It took us 284 games to get here, with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs looking to become the first team ever to three-peat, and the Philadelphia Eagles once again standing in their way.
The Chiefs didn’t necessarily look like themselves for much of this season, skating by repeatedly with one-score wins, seemingly pulling them out by the skin of their teeth. And yet, here they are again, AFC champions and ready to make NFL history.
The Eagles started slowly before going on a massive run after their Week 5 bye, essentially flipping the script on their disappointing 2023 campaign. Now, they’re out for revenge against the team that defeated them in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Which of these two teams will claim the Lombardi Trophy? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup in detail, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Chiefs vs. Eagles where to watch
Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, Louisiana)
TV: Fox | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Chiefs -1, O/U 49 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Chiefs have the ball
This is a matchup of a defense that wants to force its opponents to play a specific way and an offense that is not only comfortable playing that way, but actively wants to play that way.
The Vic Fangio-coordinated Eagles defense dares opponents to matriculate the ball down the field with runs and short passes, placing an umbrella over the deep part of the field and encouraging underneath throws, then quickly rallying to the ball to prevent yards after the catch. Philly was the best team in the league against YAC this season, according to Tru Media, but the Chiefs have been the NFL’s best YAC-per-reception offense since Hollywood Brown returned to the lineup and freed up rookie speedster Xavier Worthy to do more short-area work.
Prior to Brown’s return in Week 16, Worthy lined up in the slot on 31.8% of his snaps, via TruMedia, out wide for 66.6% and in the backfield 1.6% of the time. Since then, he’s been in the slot on 44.4% of snaps and outside for 53.7%, while taking 1.9% of his snaps in the backfield.
He’s been targeted on 30.7% of his routes when working out of the slot across those four games, and he’s got 16 catches for 156 yards and two scores on those plays. That’s compared with only a 15.8% target rate and 13 catches for 129 yards and two touchdowns from the slot through the first 15 weeks of the season.
Between Worthy (and Brown) creating yards after the catch and Travis Kelce finding the soft spots in zone, defenses essentially have to pick their poison. If you play zone, Patrick Mahomes and Kelce will dink and dunk you to death. It’s what they do best. If you play man, then you have to deal with the fastest man in the NFL (and one who might be nearly as fast) on short crossing routes, and hope he doesn’t zoom his way down the entire field and into the end zone.
Fangio has a reputation as a zone-heavy coordinator, but the Eagles actually played a fair bit of man coverage this year — especially after returning from their bye, which is when the defense really took off.
Do they have the confidence in their ability to play sticky coverage with Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean against the receivers, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Reed Blankenship and the linebackers against Kelce? Do they think they can get pressure on Mahomes quickly enough to either disrupt the play or (gasp!) force him into a bad decision where he puts the ball up for grabs before he should, and one of the defensive backs can take advantage? Will they blitz him to try to force that kind of thing and open themselves up to the big play, or will they truly stay conservative and force him to take the underneath stuff all night?
The pressure piece is key here, and the Eagles should have multiple avenues to beat Kansas City up front. The weak link on the offensive line is right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who is susceptible to speed rushers around the edge. Philly will line up Nolan Smith alllll the way outside and have him try to sprint right past Taylor, hoping he can either turn the corner or force the penalty-prone Taylor into holding calls.
Super Bowl predictions, odds: 59 expert picks on score, spread, total, prop bets for Chiefs vs. Eagles 2025
Jordan Dajani
The Chiefs also shuffled the left side of their line and now have Mike Caliendo playing left guard, where he’ll at the very least have to deal with Milton Williams. And if the Eagles want to go against a tendency, they can also shift Jalen Carter to that side of the line and have their best defensive lineman go up against a guy who has made just five career starts. According to Pro Football Focus, Carter aligned to the defensive right side just 29 times all season. That’s 29 out of 1,026 total snaps. Having Carter rush opposite Trey Smith the entire game doesn’t necessarily seem like the best idea when there’s a potential mismatch on the opposite side of the line, so this is the type of situation where, if you’re going to make a significant change, there’s reason to do it.
The Eagles, also, will absolutely dare the Chiefs to run the ball. Kansas City did not run with much success this season, especially after Isiah Pacheco broke his leg early in the season. Kareem Hunt kept things relatively on schedule, but he never broke big runs and he also got stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage too often for a lead back. Pacheco hasn’t really looked like himself since returning, so Hunt has remained the preferred back despite his own inefficiency.
If they can’t run for more than two or three yards at a time, we know the Chiefs will turn to their run-pass option, screen and jet sweep package to simulate what they’re supposed to get out of the run. At the very least, putting the ball in Mahomes’ hands as often as possible is better than simply running two ineffective backs into the brick wall that Philly’s defensive line can be at its best.
When the Eagles have the ball
Two years ago, Jalen Hurts played the game of his life in the Super Bowl. He lost what ended up being a crucial fumble early in the second quarter, but was otherwise nearly flawless: He completed 27 of 38 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown, and he ran 15 times for 70 yards and three additional scores. He essentially was the entire Eagles offense, with the team’s three running backs combining for just 55 yards on 17 carries.
This year’s version of Hurts is not quite the same player. He’s not as decisive, tending to hold the ball in the pocket for longer periods of time and subjecting himself to more sacks. When under pressure, he averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt during the regular season, and he had a turnover-worthy throw rate more than twice as high as it was in 2022.
Of course, Hurts is also coming off what was likely his best passing performance of the season. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards and a score, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He went 6 of 7 for 74 yards and a touchdown on third and fourth downs, and converted two more of those plays with pass interference penalties on downfield throws to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Which version of Hurts, the passer, shows up on Sunday night will go a long way toward determining how difficult it is to defend this Eagles offense. If he’s in rhythm and delivering the ball on time and with confidence, there may just be too much to deal with — even for this Chiefs defense. But if Steve Spagnuolo and Co. can make him think, make him delay, make him hold the ball for even half a second longer than is ideal for the design of the play, it can throw the entire operation off.
Much of what the Chiefs are able to accomplish will defend on Spags. Can he dial up even more of his absolutely wild blitzes to confuse and overwhelm what is one of the best offensive lines in the NFL? Where will the additional rushers come from? Is Hurts prepared to deal with free rushers? And can Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and the rest of the defensive front generate a push against the Eagles’ massive tackles and strong interior, when the Chiefs don’t send extra rushmen?
When Hurts looks downfield, the matchups will also be slightly different this time around. He still has A.J. Brown, Smith and Goedert as his top options, but Kansas City’s secondary looks different. Trent McDuffie is still there, but he’s playing on the outside rather than the slot. Jaylen Watson has fully taken over the other outside cornerback role, while Chamarri Conner is in the slot. Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook are splitting the safety role opposite Justin Reid, who is moving around the formation as often as ever before, and the Chiefs are using plenty of three-safety looks to get them all on the field.
McDuffie and Watson, much like McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed a couple years ago, are one of the best cornerback duos in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how they’re deployed against Brown and Smith. McDuffie is the better coverage player of the two, but Watson (6-2, 197 pounds) has the requisite size to deal with Brown’s physicality. Will the Chiefs simply play sides and allow the Eagles to dictate the matchups, or have one of the two follow AJB and the other travel with Smith? And will they roll coverage help to one side or the other, or dedicate that extra safety to the box to stop the run, daring the Eagles to put the game in Hurts’ hands?
That’s not the way Philly has wanted to play for most of this season, which makes sense, as the Eagles’ run game has been arguably the best in the NFL:
Philadelphia finished second in the NFL in rushing yards and fifth in yards per carry. The Eagles jumped to second in yards per carry when removing quarterback sneaks, which adds over 0.5 yards per carry to their average. The offensive line cleared the way for Saquon Barkley in a way we have rarely ever seen: Barkley’s 2.64 yards before contact per carry average checked in fourth … among the 460 running backs who have toted the rock at least 100 times in a season since 2015…
Barkley forced 62 missed tackles during the regular season, according to Pro Football Focus, which ranked seventh in the NFL. He led the NFL in runs of 10 yards or more (46), and he also ripped off 25 rushes of at least 15 yards, tying him with Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead…
[Hurts] has 62 designed rush attempts for 322 yards so far this season, good for an average of 5.2 per carry. He’s topped 20 yards on designed, non-sneak runs in eight of his 19 games played, including two of the three playoff games. He’s also scrambled for at least 20 yards in 11 of those 19 games, including once in the playoffs.
The Chiefs had a stronger-than-usual season defending the run in 2024. They allowed only 4.1 yards per carry, and they ranked better than average in yards both before and after contact, via Tru Media.
They did have a weakness, though: They were one of the league’s least-effective teams defending against scrambles this season, allowing quarterbacks to escape downfield a league-high 50 times. Even on a percentage basis, they saw quarterbacks take off downfield on 20.9% of pressured dropbacks, which ranked sixth-worst. They were one of only nine teams that saw pressures result in scrambles at a higher rate than sacks, with the fourth-largest negative margin.
Barkley is going to get his, eventually. The Eagles give him the ball too many times for him to not rack up a good amount of yards. The key is to keep him from ripping off those big, explosive runs. If the Chiefs can do that, it falls to the passing game. And then it puts pressure on Hurts to both be decisive enough as a passer and electric enough as a runner to lead his team to a win.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Eagles 21
The Eagles have quite a few matchup advantages in this game. They should be able to run the ball with some degree of success. They have the ability to create generate multiple matchups for their defensive line that should prove tough for the Chiefs to deal with. And yet… I simply cannot bring myself to pick against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Chris Jones and the rest of this Chiefs team in a big game. Until somebody actually beats them, I just won’t do it. My bet is that the first three-peat in history actually comes to fruition.
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