Analytics usually say that coaches are too quick to kick and should go for it on fourth down more often. But on Thursday night, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn made the rare decision to go for it in a situation where the analytics said to kick. It did not go well for him.
The Commanders trailed 12-10 with 8:01 left in the game and faced fourth-and-2 at the Eagles’ 26-yard line. A field goal would have given them a 13-12 lead. According to the analytics model published by Ben Baldwin, a field goal attempt would have improved the Commanders’ win percentage by 2.1 percent compared to going for it on fourth down.
Quinn went against the analytics and kept his offense on the field on fourth-and-2. The Commanders were stopped, and the Eagles got the ball back and dominated the rest of the game, winning 26-18.
There’s a misperception that analytics always say coaches should go for it. In general, analytics are more bullish on going for it than coaches are, but there are plenty of times when the analytics say kicking the field goal is the better option. And when a field goal will give you a lead in the fourth quarter, the analytics will usually say kicking is better. That’s what they said in this case.
Quinn trusted his gut over the analytics, and lowered his team’s chances of winning in the process.
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