Do you know how bad it’s gotten with Deshaun Watson on the field? I don’t think you do. It’s not just “worst starting quarterback in the NFL” bad. He’s reached a historically bad level.
The Watson, who burst onto the NFL scene as a rookie with 19 touchdown passes in seven games, threw for over 4,000 yards in his second season and led the league with 4,823 yards in 2020, has completely vanished. That Watson is long gone.
And after Cleveland’s latest loss, a 34-13 demolition at the hands of the red-hot Commanders, head coach Kevin Stefanski said “we’re not changing quarterbacks. We need to play better. I need to coach better. And that’s what it really is.”
Now, of course, that messaging could be coming from above Stefanski within Cleveland’s organization — like, say, from owner Jimmy Haslam, who offered the $230 million fully guaranteed contract to Watson in 2022.
Regardless of who is making the final call, Watson is the starting quarterback right now. And he’s started about as poorly as we’ve seen.
While I don’t believe EPA to solely be a quarterback stat in isolation, at the center of the offense, EPA does tell a reasonably good story as to how effectively a quarterback is operating. And the history of Browns quarterbacks has about five times more brutal quarterbacks than quality ones, so the worst EPA start since 2000 in Cleveland is striking.
But for historical NFL framing, check this accompanying tweet about the beginning of Watson’s 2024 season with the Browns (and note Will Levis here, too. Yikes.):
Watson all but certainly is the culprit here. Because, remember, Stefanski has won NFL Coach of the Year twice — in 2020 and 2023. Amari Cooper had 83 catches for 1,153 yards last season. And in that magical 2023, Joe Flacco started five games, won four of them, all of those victories included a 300-yard passing game with multiple touchdown throws.
The offensive line isn’t as much of a brick wall as it used to be. The run game isn’t as devastating without Nick Chubb. But this team shouldn’t be this inept.
Watson’s confidence no longer exists. And I have a sneaking suspicion his arm isn’t 100%, and he knows it. The trust in his arm talent isn’t there. And that combination is leading to routinely delayed decision-making, poor coverage reads, scampers from clean pockets and throws that simply don’t have the necessary juice to find the intended target on time.
No longer is Watson — at his peak — one of the most assertive, anticipatory passers in football to timid. Point blank. Watch here on this strip sack, how Elijah Moore is coming open on a crosser. Watson doesn’t let it rip. Instead, he anxiously bounces in the pocket before Bobby Wagner got to him.
When a quarterback is “seeing ghosts,” it almost always means they’re fleeing the pocket too early, which is a clear sign of shattered confidence and processing dysfunction.
Check Watson’s decision and unnecessary scamper out of the pocket on this play against the Commanders. He had two easy completions leak out after chipping as blockers, but didn’t take them.
But even Watson is making an assertive decision — which is happening rarely — to not go through fundamental pre-snap aspects of playing the position. Like here, on this slant to Jerry Jeudy, notice how Watson seemingly predetermines where he’s going to go with the football before the snap, and never checks for the deep middle safety hovering over top of this route.
He’s lucky this wasn’t intercepted.
If that mistake happens with a rookie, you deal with it. Almost expect it to happen. It shouldn’t be happening with a quarterback with more than 1,200 collegiate attempts and nearly 2,500 NFL passes under his belt.
But it is, because Watson has transformed from an uber-confident quarterback with plus skills across the board that makes the challenging look routine often to a passer unable to do anything right within the structure of the play or outside of it.
The accuracy has essentially evaporated too. At least he made a decision to throw this football with the velocity on it. But it can’t be at the receiver’s shoelaces.
The Browns are stuck. They’re getting negative expected points on every Watson drop back, but he’s the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL in total guaranteed dollars. He’s getting every penny from the Browns unless legal proceedings lead to another suspension, which could — and probably would — void some of those guarantees.
On the field, he’s not doing elementary things at a respectable level. There’s no rhythm with his receivers. He’s running when he shouldn’t and staying in the pocket when it’s collapsing. It’s genuinely some of the worst quarterback play I’ve witnessed in the NFL.
It’ll sting financially, but the best decision for the Browns is to bench Watson and start Jameis Winston. It’s a virtual certainty he won’t be any worse. And he’s very likely to be much better, because while Winston isn’t perfect, he possesses passing confidence in spades.
Watson no longer has any.
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