The MLB offseason is kicking off, and people are starting to turn their attention to the 2026 season, which means it’s the perfect time to drop some rankings.
This is now my third year publishing my top 150 starting pitchers. If you’ve read my work before, you know I generally hate publishing starting pitcher rankings because they never feel done to me. As somebody who spends a lot of time watching/thinking about pitching, I always feel like there are tweaks I want to make or pitchers that I constantly change my opinion of.
However, at this point in the season, it’s hard to overthink. There are three months until pitchers and catchers report, and players aren’t playing games or posting videos of new pitches, so there is nothing to get geeked about. Instead, these rankings are more “gut feel” rankings based on how I feel about all of these pitchers at the end of the season. I tried not to get too in the weeds about stats, but simply ranked the pitchers based on how I believe they performed in 2025 and how excited I am about growth from them in 2026.
Our early 2026 Top 300 rankings highlight the latest Hot Stove developments and projections.
As always, the pitchers are split into tiers, which I’ve named based on movie quotes, so you can understand why they are ranked where they are. The tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings. I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc.
PLEASE READ: I went to a lot of effort to share my thoughts on the rankings below, so you’ll find short blurbs with my thoughts “off the dome” for these guys. I would highly encourage you to read the blurb and not just focus on the ranking because it allows you to get a sense of WHY I have the pitcher ranked where I do, and if that logic makes any sense to you.
OK? Ok, so let’s get started.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
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“I’m king of the world!” |
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You have no complaints about any of these top three guys. They are the consensus top three starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, and I can’t seem to find an argument against that.
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“Not me. I’m in my prime.” |
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Yamamoto was the “workhorse” of the Dodgers’ rotation and made 30 starts. He looks like the most likely candidate to lead the team in innings in 2026 and was clearly electric when he was on the mound.
Last season, I said that Bryan Woo would be a top-20 pitcher if he could stay healthy, but I didn’t rank him there because I didn’t believe in his health. Whoops. Woo has great fastballs and improving secondaries, and is perhaps the highest upside pitcher in this tier if we could guarantee health.
Cole Ragans was in my top 10 heading into 2025 after posting a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings last season. He came back healthy at the end of the season, which makes me confident that he will head into 2026 fully healthy.
Logan Gilbert battled some injuries this past season and continues to struggle to maintain a consistent approach. Maybe I’m too high on him because he has yet to deliver at this level, but he has all the tools and an elite home park. It will happen one season.
Max Fried is just about as safe as they come. He’s had minor injuries over the last two seasons, but we know that, when he’s on the mound, he is basically really good in every category without being a true elite standout in any. But there is very little risk with Fried.
Cristopher Sanchez was a breakout star in 2025, posting a 2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 26.3 percent strikeout rate in 202 innings. He pitches for a strong team and has an elite changeup to put away righties. This all feels very real.
I discussed Hunter Brown in my presentation at First Pitch Arizona, and there are a few things that make me pause a bit. His fastball command was poor last year, with a fastball zone rate under 50%, and his entire arsenal grades out poorly in Pitcher List’s PLV model, which takes location into account. I still think Brown is good, hence the ranking, but I have some pause.
Jacob deGrom pitched 172.2 innings in 2025, and we know he’s elite when he gives us volume. Yes, he’s not as dominant as he was in previous seasons, and there’s no guarantee that he pitches over 130 innings next season, but I can take the gamble here.
Yes, I have Kyle Bradish in this tier. I look at him a bit like I looked at deGrom heading into 2025 after deGrom came back and made three starts in 2024. We have seen that Bradish is healthy, and we’ve seen what he can do when he is.
Chris Sale and Blake Snell are similar for me. We know they are elite when they’re on the mound, but we also know that they’re rarely on the mound for the full season.
Shohei Ohtani is another player in this tier thanks to his confusing workload. We assume the Dodgers will use a six-man rotation or limit his innings in some capacity in 2026. Ohtani has elite strikeout upside and a great chance at wins, but what if he throws just 130 innings? It’s certainly possible.
I know many people have George Kirby higher, but some red flags jumped out at me when I did my FPAZ presentation. His best secondary to righties is a slider that posted just a 14% swinging strike rate, which is fine but not truly elite, and his fastball zone rate has decreased in each of the last two seasons. I don’t love that combination if I want an SP1 for my team.
Stay up to date with the MLB free agent market this offseason, including player signings, contract details, and team fits as the 2025-26 Hot Stove heats up.
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D.J. Short
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D.J. Short
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This is an entire tier of pitchers who have clear ace upside but plenty of question marks either about health, team context, or lack of track record. I will certainly target at least one pitcher in this tier, maybe two, but I don’t think I can wait around and take one as my ace.
I’m fully in on Eury Perez heading into 2026, as I noted in my FPAZ presentation. Last year, he featured a sweeper with a 22% swinging strike rate to righties and a harder slider with a 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. He throws a 98 mph fastball with an elite zone rate and has a deep five-pitch mix. I think this is the breakout season.
I know that, if I’m high on Kyle Bradish, I should have Shane Bieber around him, but I have a little more concern about Bieber’s overall health and also his lack of strikeout upside. Bieber had just a 13% swinging strike rate overall in 2025 and features below-average velocity on his fastball. The introduction of the cutter has been great for him but it has limited his strikeout upside a bit.
I think Freddy Peralta will stay in Milwaukee for this season and continue to be the pitcher we’ve come to know. He was tremendous this past season, but he had 18th percentile four-seam fastball command and benefited from the deadened ball, which led to far fewer home runs than normal. I think the batting average luck will regress back to the norm a bit.
Joe Ryan’s season nose-dived a bit once the Twins started selling off pieces and not contending. I can’t really blame him for that. The talent is there, and I expect him to be on a new team that may have some direction on how to establish a consisent approach with his secondaries.
I think the hype for Jacob Misiorowski has outpaced the results a little bit. Yes, he’s tons of fun, but valid command concerns were coming into the season, and he posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 66 MLB innings. The strikeouts are awesome, but the Brewers may be cautious with his innings, and the WHIP may always hurt you a bit.
I have more concerns about Tyler Glasnow’s health than I do most of the other pitchers in the top 25, and so this may be the year I finally decide not to rank him that highly, since he has only one season in his entire career with over 120 innings.
We saw the home run issues come into play for Shota Imanaga again in 2024, and he also battled a hamstring injury; however, I think the talent is there, and the Cubs should be a good team with a solid defense behind him.
Yes, I’m this high on Nick Lodolo. He just had the best season of his career. His curve is a tremendous swing-and-miss pitch, and he features multiple fastball variations for all hitters. His hit suppression has always been strong, and the command has improved over the last few seasons. Health and his home park are the only big bugaboos.
Where will Dylan Cease pitch in 2026? That’s the big question. I covered his free agency and fantasy profile in an earlier article this offseason.
Michael King was my 8th-ranked starting pitcher coming into last season, but a shoulder injury sapped much of that production. Even if I can’t give him 180 innings again, I also can’t pretend that I don’t love the skillset, so this feels like a good place to rank him before we see where he signs.
There are all pitchers I feel like present a modicum of safety and consistency but not really the upside of the tier above.
Nick Pivetta had his best HR/FB% season ever, and you have to think the deadened ball we saw in 2025 had something to do with that. What if that ball isn’t back in 2026?
Framber Valdez is who he is at this point. He’s a two-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his curveball and will have stretches of elite production and stretches where he gets hit too hard. However, he has never been bad, and I can’t see him becoming bad.
Really, the only knock against Drew Rasmussen last year was volume, and that’s to be expected while coming off Tommy John surgery. He’ll no longer be pitching home games in a minor league park, and I think he could push six or seven innings in most of his starts now. He’s not the highest upside arm, but that’s why he’s in this tier.
Logan Webb used to be a fringe top 10 pitcher because of his innings reliability and solid ratios. However, we’ve seen his WHIP become a bit less consistent thanks to some pitch mix tinkering. I’m not sure Webb has settled into what type of pitcher he wants to be and maybe the new coaching staff can help with that.
All of these guys have the upside to finish inside the top 20 overall starters, but also have clear warts or a lack of track record, which adds some volatility.
Like all Rays pitchers, Ryan Pepiot will no longer be pitching in a minor league park, which could mean fewer home runs, which were a major problem for him in 2025. He continues to rock really above-average H/9 rates and a solid swinging strike rate, and I think this is the season it comes together.
People are so ready to write off Bubba Chandler because the Pirates keep him in the minors forever, and then got frustrated and started over-throwing or trying to prove himself, which led to command issues he hadn’t had before and didn’t show in the majors. Then he got to the majors and looked like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. I’m a believer.
It seems that I’m a little low on Cam Schlittler, but I have some concerns, which I outlined in my FPAZ presentation. For starters, he’s so fastball heavy. He has a four-pitch mix, and three of them are fastball variations. Yet, his four-seam fastball had below-average command. That’s not great. Also, his best swing-and-miss secondary pitch to righties was a cutter that posted just an 11.6% swinging strike rate. I just see a lot more volatility in this profile than others seem to.
Chase Burns’ strikeout upside is real, which we know because he posted 10+ strikeouts across four starts at one point in the season. He also has a narrow pitch mix and gives up more contact on his fastball than you’d think at his velocity. Oh, and his home park sucks. However, the slider is a wipeout pitch, and I think there could be a step forward in 2026 given how quickly he progresses through the minors.
Jesus Luzardo is tremendously volatile; we know this, but his new sweeper was a tremendous addition for him, and we know that the Phillies will put him in a solid position for wins regularly.
I’m a sucker for Edward Cabrera. He made the change to using his sinker as his primary fastball in 2025, and it led to massive improvements in command. Pair with that a plus slider and curve, and I think we have the makings of a potential top-25 arm.
Robbie Ray added a changeup and had some stretches of solid production that push for top 25 value, but he also has below-average fastball velocity and command, which I don’t love. He still only throws one fastball type, and the swing-and-miss wasn’t really present for him this past season. He may be more of an SP2-3 in fantasy now.
Nolan McLean was another rookie I covered in my FPAZ presentation. There are a few things I really liked, like his deep pitch mix, his velocity and sinker command, and the growth he showed in 2025. I didn’t love that his sweeper, which was his main secondary to righties, posted just a 5.8% swinging strike rate. That’s not gonna cut it over a long season, so he’ll need to either tweak that pitch or his approach.
I always believed Sandy Alcantara was more of a safe SP2 than an ace. I was wrong for a while, but perhaps it’s settling in a bit now. Alcantara seemed to get a little bit back to himself at the end of the season, but he’s going to remain a low-upside arm with slightly more volume risk than we had seen previously. I’d prefer if he were traded, but Miami was feisty down the stretch too, so maybe they could be in for a solid season.
Sonny Gray has said that he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, so there’s a good chance that he will be on a new team in 2026. At this point, we know what we’re getting from Gray, and it’s usually pretty solid.
Cade Horton had a tremendous year and showed a deeper arsenal than we originally thought with a much-improved changeup. However, he also had a 20% strikeout rate and gave up a lot of contact. It’s not hard contact, and the defense behind him is good, so that works, but I’d love to see more strikeouts.
Ranger Suarez is another pitcher who could be finding a new home in 2026. Suarez’s command was really good for most of the season, and we know who he is at this point. It just remains to be seen where he lands.
Trevor Rogers came out of nowhere in 2026 but rode a new sinker and a plus changeup to a tremendous season. Can we believe it? I think it’s MOSTLY true, but I’m not in on another top 25 season with such mediocre fastballs.
It will be an even year, so Aaron Nola will be great. Kidding. Kind of. Nola battled injuries throughout the season, but he didn’t showcase a velocity dip or much of a change in his elite curveball. I expect a bounce-back season for Nola, who is more of a fantasy SP3 at this point in his career.
Kevin Gausman is all about his splitter. We know that. He had it for much of the year last season, but he also lost it at times too. He has yet to add another fastball variation (maybe he can’t), and so he will continue to be a slightly volatile arm that will be hard to use when the splitter is off.
I was never a big fan of Andrew Abbott, but some pitch mix changes led to a little more swing-and-miss in his game in 2025, and we know that his solid changeup will always perform well against righties. He’s kind of like Trevor Rogers in that way. I just wish he had a better home park.
Gavin Williams was “my dude” in 2025, and it didn’t work for most of the year. However, he was tremendous in the second half, so maybe it’s starting to come together. I think he’s more of a “thrower” than a pitcher, so he can’t always execute as well as he wants, and that will likely limit his overall fantasy upside.
Shane Baz is another pitcher who will benefit from no longer playing in a minor league park, and is another pitcher I discussed in my FPAZ presentation. His inability to truly replace his former slider has led to some swing-and-miss concerns against righties, but he has never really allowed hard contact, and the new cutter is a solid enough pitch against righties that the floor feels a bit safe here.
Bryce Miller is coming off elbow surgery to remove bone spurs and has yet to establish consistent success at the big league level. I think he’s good, and I like his home park, but I don’t quite trust him yet.
I can’t quite figure out Trey Yesavage yet, and I need to be honest about that right now. He’s like Kevin Gausman, except he has a slider that can help him when his splitter abandons him. He also doesn’t have near the track record of success that Gausman does. His four-seamer has average velocity and has proven to be hittable with fairly average swing-and-miss metrics. I don’t love that and think he will be drafted too high based on his postseason.
I wrote about Tatsuya Imai earlier this offseason in our Player News blurbs, which you can check out here, but I said: “The 27-year-old Imai is coming off a strong season that saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 178/45 K/BB ratio in 163 2/3 innings. It was his second straight season with 163 or more innings, and he continued to show that he could return his mid-to-high 90s velocity on his fastball over a full year. He also posted a career-high strikeout rate that was better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s mark in his final NPB season. In addition to his high strikeout totals, Imai has proven to be a solid groundball pitcher with a six-pitch mix that includes a slider, changeup, splitter, curveball, and sinker.”
Kodai Senga may very well be on a new team in 2026. The right-hander has not been the same guy we saw in his rookie season, but he does still have that solid cutter and elite Ghost Fork. I think injuries have played a huge role in his struggles over the last two years, and I’m willing to buy back in if the price dips like this.
Nick Pollack has really talked me into Troy Melton over the last few months due to Melton’s 97 mph four-seamer with seven feet of extension and flat attack angle. He also has a good slider and a deep pitch mix, but what he might not have is a spot in the rotation. That keeps him in this tier for me.
Eric Samulski breaks down the Orioles-Angels trade and discusses what the fallout could be for both teams and players
Pretty simply, this is a tier full of injured pitchers who are too hard to rank until we know just how hurt they are. I expect all of these guys to be ready to go by spring training, at which time I’ll move them into their rightful tiers.
Luis Castillo and Seth Lugo are who they are at this point in their career. The results are likely to always be there, but we’re no longer getting elite production.
Noah Cameron is the epitome of what Nick Pollack is calling a SWATCH (Southpaw With a Tremendous Changeup). Actually, Matthew Boyd is too. Both of them are lower velocity pitchers with good command of a deep arsenal and a changeup that eats up right-handed hitters. I’m not sure how trustworthy they will be year-over-year, but that approach led to tons of success for them this year, and I could see it happening next year as well. Especially since they both have good defenses behind them.
Ryne Nelson seems all but assured of being in Arizona’s rotation next year, so we can avoid that headache again. However, he remains an elite fastball pitcher with a limited arsenal of secondaries. Unless he locks in on one of them, he will be hard to trust.
This whole tier is full of players that have been the proverbial rake in our face once or twice before, but I think there is enough there to remain somewhat intrigued.
Could MacKenzie Gore be on a new team? It seems possible, and it may help him unlock the consistency that has been evading him. His new slider looked great early on, but we continue to see Gore struggle to maintain a level for a full season. But, hey, if you draft him here and then cut him over the summer when he starts to pitch poorly, you’ve probably returned good value on the draft slot.
People like Emmet Sheehan a lot, and I’m also a fan in general, but I have no idea what his role will be on the Dodgers, and I don’t feel confident that he begins the year in the starting rotation.
Tanner Bibee’s had a really bad season thanks to poor secondaries that failed to cover for his average fastball. However, I like the idea of him going to multiple fastball variations to cover up for that weak four-seamer, and we have seen his secondaries perform well in the past. That plus his locked-in spot in the Guardians rotation means that I’m likely to take a gamble in 2026 since most people have jumped way off the bandwagon.
Yes, I’m this low on Spencer Strider. He returned from his second Tommy John surgery with a much worse fastball and poor command. It did not get better as the season went on, and he doesn’t have a deep enough arsenal to survive a step back with his fastball like that.
Connelly Early was great for the Red Sox in September, and I’m high on him as a polished lefty with an uptick in velocity and a deep pitch mix that he can command. However, I expect the Red Sox to be active in trying to bring in a strong starting pitcher this offseason, and they also have Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Patrick Sandoval, Payton Tolle, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Kyle Harrison, so a rotation spot is far from guaranteed for Early, who has three minor league options left.
I just believe in Zebby Matthews, man. I don’t know what to tell you. He has a deep pitch mix of solid offerings, and I know he lacks that true plus pitch, but I think he can find a sequencing and approach that will unlock success.
I probably should have Reese Olson in the injured tier since he ended the year on the IL with a shoulder strain. However, I expect him to be ready for the start of the season, but I don’t like him as much as the starters that were in the injured tier above. He has two good secondary pitches and a bad fastball, so he’ll always be a bit volatile.
From this point on, I’m going to stop with notes on every pitcher.
This is a tier of boring veterans who are on the downside of their careers but could still have plenty of value. You know who all of these guys are at this point, and you know what to expect from them. It’s not overly exciting, but it will be valuable more often than not.
This is just a tier of younger starting pitchers who I really like but have yet to show consistent value at the Major League level, which makes them all question marks. Some of them may not even be in the rotation come spring, but these are all guys I’m curious about and will be watching closely this spring training.
These are all younger pitchers who I don’t believe have the ceiling of the tier above. In most cases, these pitchers are safer, and I would prefer them if I were in a 15-team league or deeper formats. However, in a 12-team league at the end of my draft, I’d probably rather chase the upside of any of the pitchers that emerge in the tier above.
This is another injury tier, but I don’t believe any of these pitchers will be ready for the start of the season. I’ll adjust their rankings when I get a better sense of their recovery timeline.
These are all pitchers who have intrigued me at times for various reasons, but feel like bigger landmines than that tier of young, upside pitchers above. Some of these guys pitch in bad ballpacks (Morales) are coming off poor seasons (Ober, Arrighetti, Javier, Festa, Manaea), can’t seem to establish consistency (Gil, Soriano, Cecconi, Kikuchi) or may not have rotation spots (Tolle, Sproat, Povich).
However, I do need to call out Mike Burrows. I’m not sure what the Pirates plan to do with him in 2026, but he has popped for me a bit in my off-season research. He had a really solid 13% swinging strike rate with a changeup that was elite against lefties (26.7% swinging strike rate) and a slider/curve combo that both posted slightly above-average swing and miss marks to righties. His four-seamer is above average, but he features a sinker that can allow it to play up a bit, so if he can take even a small step forward with the slider or curve to righties, I think he could be really interesting.
In a 15-team league or a Draft-and-Hold format, you may have all of these pitchers higher, but most of them are on the downside of their careers or have capped ceilings in terms of fantasy value.
A look at the top MLB prospects who have a chance to make a fantasy impact in the coming seasons.
Pretty self-explanatory here, but these guys all interest me, but mostly from a distance. I’m not sure if they have set roles or will even make the Opening Day roster for their team. These guys feel like way more wild cards than the tier with guys like Payton Tolle and Cade Povich.
These guys are boring, but they seem to produce stretches of fantasy value every single year. In 15-team leagues or draft-and-hold formats, that matters.
Read the full article here
