Fantasy Baseball Busts 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Merrill among Rotoworld staff picks

Fantasy baseball draft season is here and the Rotoworld Baseball staff is busy digging into potential value picks and and players to fade this season. After unveiling our sleeper picks last week, this time we’re talking about busts.

Now, we’re well aware that the term “bust” is an extreme one. The very nature of it leads to debate and discussion, sometimes unpleasant ones. But the most useful way to think about a bust is someone who is unlikely to justify their ADP (average draft position) for a given season. We’ve collected our staff picks for 2026, so feel free to check them out below.

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⚾ 2026 Fantasy Baseball Busts

Ozzie Albies 2B, Braves

People still view Ozzie Albies as a top-10 second baseman? How? Why?

I will grant that Albies finished as last year’s 11th- or 12th-most valuable second baseman, but that was accomplished in 667 plate appearances. Only Luis Arráez had more among second-base eligible players, and on a per-game basis, Albies wouldn’t have ranked in the top 30. It was also only Albies’ third healthy season of the last six. He hit a career-low .240, putting him under .260 for the fourth time in five years. He’s eclipsed a .310 OBP in just one of those seasons, so he doesn’t belong anywhere near the top of Atlanta’s lineup. His 16 homers came with just 25 barrels. Albies ranked in the 10th-20th percentile of major leaguers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, chase rate and xwOBA. It’s hard to imagine him excelling in any fantasy category at this point. Maybe he’ll be average enough in four of them to maintain a little value, but there are at least 20 second basemen who offer more upside than he does. – Matthew Pouliot

Jackson Merrill OF, Padres

The player that I believe is still being way over-drafted and will wind up being among the biggest busts this season is Jackson Merrill. Yes, Merrill had an outstanding rookie season and exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. He came crashing back down to earth during his sophomore season though and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned going forward. One is the spike in his strikeout rate from 17% as a rookie to 22.4% in 2025. That’s still not a bad rate in and of itself, but his exceptional plate control was one of the main reasons that he was a major asset in batting average during his rookie season. Merrill also saw his quality of contact metrics decline, with his exit velocity and max exit velocity each dropping by almost one mile per hour. That’s not what you’d expect to see from a 22-year-old. Maybe the injuries played a role, but it’s still concerning. My biggest worry though is simply that he stopped running. After swiping 16 bases in 19 attempts as a rookie, Merrill had just one theft in three attempts during the 2025 campaign. It’s possible that new skipper Craig Stammen wants to be ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and unleashes Merrill again, which would unlock his upside, but until we see it, I don’t think I can buy in — especially at his current price. – David Shovein

From breakout arms to post-hype hitters, our staff highlights undervalued draft targets for 2026 fantasy baseball leagues.

Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, Cubs

Obviously, there are reasons to be excited about a player like Crow-Armstrong. He was a 30/30 player in 2025 and legitimately in the MVP conversation in the middle of the season. And while the power/speed combination is intriguing on top of the fact that his exceptional defense is going to keep him in the lineup every day, there’s reason to be concerned. He hit just .216 with a .634 OPS after the All-Star break, and he was essentially a platoon player with just a .594 OPS against southpaws with an ugly 55/5 K/BB ratio. He’s one of the least patient hitters in baseball, and teams seemed to figure out that if you throw fastballs outside of the strike zone, Crow-Armstrong would beat himself. The chance for another 30/30 season makes him intriguing and it’s worth pointing out that he’s still just 23 years old until the end of March, but those who take him in the first four rounds have better be prepared to take the bitter with the better. – Christopher Crawford

Nolan McLean SP, Mets

I’m not selecting Nolan McLean here because I don’t like him, but because I don’t see him being able to match the value he’d need to pay off his current ADP in NFBC 12-team drafts, which is 89th overall and SP23. Yes, McLean had a 21.3% K-BB% last year and has a 95 mph sinker that he can pound the zone with; however, I’m not so sure the strikeout upside is as good as everybody is anticipating. For starters, his 12% SwStr% last year was about league average, and that fell to just 10.6% against right-handed hitters. That’s because his primary secondary pitch to righties, his sweeper, which he threw 32% of the time to them, had just a 5.8% swinging-strike rate. That’s, um, not good. I do like that he has six pitches and three fastball variations, and I like his general approach, but I’m concerned by the lack of a true out pitch against righties. Right now, you’re paying a price as if he’s a finished product when there are many areas in which he needs to show improvement. – Eric Samulski

Kyle Tucker crashes the top 10 and outfield-bound Yordan Alvarez tumbles a few spots in the updated top 300.

Oneil Cruz OF, Pirates

Cruz remains a human highlight reel, capable of feats of strength that would make Frank Costanza pound the table in approval. He produced five of the nine hardest-hit balls in baseball last season and led the majors with a 95.8 mph average exit velocity — numbers that suggest raw power almost beyond comprehension. And yet, he hit just 20 home runs – 84th in the majors – and his .200 batting average was the lowest of any big-league regular. Yes, he swiped 38 bases to lead the National League, but a sub-.300 on-base percentage places a natural ceiling on how often those opportunities materialize. He’s also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching and graded out poorly defensively despite his rare athletic gifts.

The talent is undeniable; the volatility is unavoidable. Cruz feels like the kind of player who can tilt a fantasy league — or derail a roster — which is exactly why using a top-100 pick on him requires a tolerance for chaos that not every fantasy manager possesses. If Cruz slides into a platoon role because the splits never stabilize, and the on-base issues persist, you’re suddenly looking at a player who doesn’t hit enough homers to justify the power promise or steal enough bases to offset the batting-average drag. At that point, the highlight reel remains intact, but the fantasy returns are diminishing. – George Bissell

Zach Neto SS, Angels

The power-speed combination is incredibly sought after. That’s why Zach Neto’s ADP has drifted towards the top-25. It’s partially unwarranted though. According to ATC (which averages many projection systems together), the only players projected to match Neto’s 27 home runs and 27 stolen bases are Jazz Chisholm Jr., Julio Rodríguez, José Ramírez, and Bobby Witt Jr. On that alone, Neto’s ADP makes some sense. Yet, his power projection could be called into question a bit. His bat speed is just pedestrian compared to other 30-homer bats and he finds the stands by pulling a high rate of his fly balls.

To maximize this strength, Neto moved up in the batter’s box last season and in turn, made contact further out in front. His quality of contact metrics shot up in response and made his power breakout feel real. At the same time, Neto brought similar aggressiveness to his swing decisions. Pitchers grew more careful and threw him fewer pitches in the zone. He responded by more often swinging earlier in the count and swinging harder when he did so. This was an impressive series of adjustments and Neto has gotten better every year he’s been in the big leagues. That often makes us think development will be linear. Maybe it will be and he makes me look silly writing this. Or, there’s some paper tiger elements to his approach and it’ll be up to him to adjust again. He doesn’t have strong on-base skills to fall back on or a decent enough supporting cast to ensure his runs and RBI stay in range of where we expect a fringe top-25 pick to wind up should the power regress. – James Schiano

Ceddanne Rafaela OF/2B, Red Sox

There seems to be plenty of excitement around Red Sox centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela after he hit 16 homers with 20 steals while slashing .249/.295/.414 across 587 plate appearances. While his strikeout rate did improve, some red flags remain that have me wary of pressing the draft button at his current cost. He still swung outside the zone an awful lot, with a 41.2% chase rate. With just a 4.8% walk rate, his plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired. He did see a light improvement in his barrel rate, but only 17 of his 40 barreled balls were pulled, leading me to question how much of his power he can realize until he adjusts his batted ball profile. Then there’s the question of counting stats if he’s hitting at the bottom of the Boston lineup. A repeat is in play, but he’d have to do more than that to justify his rising ADP. – Jorge Montanez

Spencer Strider SP, Braves

Things didn’t go according to plan for Strider last year in his return from UCL surgery, as he posted a disappointing 4.45 ERA over 23 starts with the lowest strikeout percentage of his career, but there was still some reason for hope with a full offseason to work on things. Most notably his fastball, which averaged just 95.5 mph last season and was hammered to the tune of a .294 batting average and a .472 slugging percentage. Strider has begun to sprinkle in a curveball in recent seasons, but he still relies heavily on his four-seamer and elite slider. The shape of his fastball has been a key component of his success over the years, but the velocity is important to track. His spring debut didn’t do much to allay fears of fantasy managers, as he averaged 93.1 mph with his four-seamer. Yes, it’s possible he’s just easing into things, but it’s not what you want to hear for a pitcher who is going on the fringes of the top-100 in mixed fantasy leagues. – D.J. Short