With spring training contests kicking into high gear in Florida and Arizona, respectively, it’s easy to overreact to small sample snapshots from a confirmation bias standpoint. The avalanche of shiny new Statcast data makes it extremely challenging for fantasy managers to decipher signal from noise, especially when dealing with small sample sizes. The overwhelming majority of the spring training data overload winds up being completely useless (often narrative-driven spin) that doesn’t wind up having any tangible impact, especially for dynasty purposes.
This column breaks down a handful of early-season developments, both positive and negative, that could potentially have significant dynasty ramifications in the weeks to come including Sandy Alcantara, Bryce Eldridge, Chase Dollander, Alejandro Rosario, Rafael Devers, Sean Manaea, Dustin May and Zac Veen.
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Three Up
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins
It’s unclear whether Alcantara averaging 98.8 mph on his fastball with his trademark low-90’s changeup in late February is cause for exclamation or alarm. The encouraging development here for the 29-year-old former fantasy ace is that his stuff appeared back to pre-Tommy John surgery levels in his Grapefruit League debut. SportsGrid’s Craig Mish speculated over the weekend that Alcantara won’t have any restrictions from Miami’s front office this season, which makes forecasting a return to the 175-inning range a realistic proposition. The lack of truly elite strikeout upside limit’s his realistic ceiling, but a return to upper-echelon fantasy status seems more likely at this juncture than a couple months ago. Alcantara got a significant boost to 151 overall in Rotoworld’s latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings update, but I’d feel comfortable slotting him into the 100-115 range, which puts him more in the Bailey Ober, Jared Jones, Framber Valdez, Bubba Chandler and Max Fried range, if he continues to look absolutely electric in spring outings.
Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants
Eldridge’s 450-foot home run off Rangers reliever Matt Festa, which featured an exit velocity of 110.4 mph, was the highlight of the Cactus League’s opening weekend, showcasing his impressive raw power. The 20-year-old burgeoning slugger, who checked in as the 12th-ranked prospect (74th overall) in Rotoworld latest dynasty rankings update, is unlikely to arrive in San Francisco until later this season, at the earliest. However, his elite batted ball metrics and bat-to-ball skills combination are extremely rare for a hitter with his six-foot-eight frame. He finished last year with an eight-game stint at Triple-A Sacramento, batting .292/.374/.516 with 23 round-trippers and six steals in 519 plate appearances across four minor-league levels and has only veterans LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores blocking his path to everyday at-bats. A hot start in the upper minors figures to boost his dynasty values even higher in the coming months and it wouldn’t be shocking if he cracked the top 50 overall before the All-Star break.
Chase Dollander, SP, Rockies
Dollander delivered a downright dazzling performance on Monday in his Cactus League debut against the Giants, recording three strikeouts and allowing only one run over two innings of work. We didn’t get any Statcast data to break down, but Colorado’s top pitching prospect attacked the zone early on, and showed some impressive resilience by rebounding from a two-out homer by Jung Hoo Lee in the opening frame by retiring four of the final five batters he faced. The ninth-overall pick from the 2023 MLB Draft has a legitimate shot at breaking camp in Colorado’s season-opening rotation and a performance like this against a lineup featuring mostly big-league regulars from a divisional rival only helps strengthen his rapidly improving case. It’s unclear whether he’s ready to tackle the Coors Field challenge right out of the gate, but he’s the most talented pitcher to give it a shot in quite some time. The 23-year-old righty checked in at 181 overall in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings update and will continue to rise in the coming weeks if he continues to impress in spring outings. If he breaks camp in the big leagues, I’d feel comfortable moving him up into the top-130 range more in line with Aaron Nola, Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo from a long-term standpoint.
With the 2025 MLB season approaching, it’s time to take a look at the prospects who have a chance to help fantasy managers this year.
Three Down
Alejandro Rosario, SP, Rangers
The unfortunate news broke over the weekend when Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters that Rosario will undergo season-ending right elbow surgery. The exact surgical procedure and return timeline will become clearer in the coming days, but dynasty managers should expect a lengthy absence here, even in a best-case scenario. It’s a significant loss for dynasty managers as Rosario was one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in baseball last year, finishing with a sparkling 2.24 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 129/13 K/BB ratio across 88 1/3 innings (18 appearances, 17 starts) between Low-A Down East and High-A Hickory. The 23-year-old right-hander’s meteoric rise last season was fueled by the Rangers front office encouraging him to elevate his upper-90’s fastball and start utilizing his hard-biting low-90’s splitter again. He rose to 322nd overall in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings update, but this latest development will obviously result in his long-term stock taking a significant hit. He’s still worth hanging onto and stashing in deeper long-term formats given his astronomical talent, but he’s unlikely to reach the big leagues until the late stages of 2026, at the earliest.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
There’s a lot to unpack here. Devers not being ready from a physical standpoint to play third base at the outset of Grapefruit League action due to ongoing shoulder rehab isn’t exactly an encouraging development. No matter how you slice the defensive numbers from a traditional or advanced metrics standpoint, the 28-year-old grades out as one of the worst at the position over the past half-decade, which increases the likelihood that Red Sox manager Alex Cora ultimately settles on Alex Bregman, who went 3-for-3 with a home run on Sunday in his Boston debut, as his starting third baseman. The other variable here is top prospect Krisitian Campbell, who could force his way onto Boston’s season-opening roster with a sizzling-hot spring. The primary concern here for dynasty managers centers around how Devers would adjust to DH-ing every day from a mental standpoint, which has been an issue in the past, even for elite hitters. I’m hesitant to drop Devers too much in Rotoworld’s next dynasty rankings update, but he’s probably going to slip a few spots behind both Junior Caminero and Austin Riley at the position to around 30th overall. It’s not a massive drop, but his physical status and uncertain defensive future amplify the long-term risks here.
Sean Manaea, SP, Mets
After losing Frankie Montas last week to a right lat strain, the Mets received more unfortuntate injury news on Monday when manager Carlos Mendoza revealed that Manaea will open the upcoming regular season on the injured list after being diagnosed with a right oblique strain. It’s an unfortunate break for the 33-year-old southpaw, who re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75 million contract back in late December, after posting a sparkling 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 184/63 K/BB ratio across 181 2/3 innings (32 starts) in his New York debut. The long-term ramifications aren’t significant here, but it’s going to diminish his appeal entering the 2025 campaign. Losing both Montas and Manaea at the outset of the regular season suddenly makes the Clay Holmes experiment a critical one for New York. The good news here is that the reliever-turned-starter looked sharp last weekend in his spring debut as his brand-new kick-changeup and cutter were on point. He’s going to jump a few spots if he continues to excel in Grapefruit League outings.
Dark Horses
Dustin May, SP, Dodgers
Given his omnipresent durability issues and Los Angeles’ absurd starting pitching depth, May was considered an extreme longshot to break camp in the big leagues. However, his impressive Cactus League debut over the weekend has us reconsidering things. The 27-year-old former top pitching prospect, who checked in at 416 overall in Rotoworld’s latest dynasty rankings update, showed zero signs of rust in his first big-league outing since 2023, averaging 94-95 mph on his four-seam fastball, and will be a name to watch closely over the next few weeks.
Zac Veen, OF, Rockies
It was generally assumed that Jordan Beck would begin the regular season as Colorado’s starting right fielder; however, Veen is challenging that expectation. The 23-year-old former first-round pick from the 2020 MLB Draft has put his power-speed combination on full display at the outset of Cactus League action, tallying one homer and two steals in three contests so far. There’s a chance he winds up forcing his way onto the Rockies’ Opening Day roster if he continues to make some noise in Arizona.
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