Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Understanding who’s stealing bases is even more important this time of year because with so much of the season already gone, it’s difficult to find ways to rise up in most categories. Yet, steals often have the least volume of all the categories, so the breadth isn’t as wide and a few shrewd moves can help you earn a lot of roto points.
Last week, I mentioned Jonah Cox as a widely available stolen base streamer. He attempted four and was successful on two.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
Eric Samulski lists his favorite streaming starts of the week
Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Nasim Nuñez |
46 |
10 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
41 |
8 |
| Chandler Simpson |
41 |
14 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
40 |
9 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
37 |
7 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
35 |
13 |
| José Ramírez |
33 |
4 |
| José Caballero |
32 |
11 |
| Otto Lopez |
30 |
4 |
| Esteury Ruiz |
30 |
7 |
There have been very few changes to this leaderboard over the past few weeks. So, I’m introducing a new, more timely one right here.
Second Half Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Chandler Simpson |
19 |
3 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
14 |
4 |
| Jake McCarthy |
14 |
1 |
| CJ Abrams |
14 |
2 |
| A.J. Ewing |
14 |
2 |
| Otto Lopez |
13 |
2 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
13 |
1 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
12 |
4 |
| Nasim Nuñez |
12 |
6 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
12 |
2 |
Jake McCarthy is having a fantasy baseball season for the ages with 15 home runs, 29 stolen bases, 154 combined runs and RBI, and a .297 batting average as an early season waiver wire guy. That’s good for the eighth-ranked outfielder according the FanGraphs’ Player Rater.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
3 |
0 |
| Miguel Vargas |
3 |
0 |
| Anthony Volpe |
3 |
0 |
| Christian Koss |
3 |
0 |
| James Wood |
3 |
0 |
| Max Clark |
3 |
1 |
| John Peck |
3 |
0 |
| José Ramírez |
2 |
0 |
| Dustin Harris |
2 |
0 |
| Konnor Griffin |
2 |
0 |
| 14 Others Tied |
2 |
– |
Fernando Tatis Jr. is so overwhelming back it’s getting to be a little bit ridiculous. He’s a top-five player in terms of earned value and has somehow elevated his draft cost heading into next season after not hitting a home run until May 30th. A career-high 35 stolen bases is a big reason why.
Back in the majors, Anthony Volpe is playing nearly every day, getting on base, and running when he does.
Max Clark has quietly been a steady performer since being called up in late July with three home runs, five stolen bases, and a .278 batting average. His raw power and swing decisions give his offensive profile some real ceiling moving forward and he’s certain to be a buzzy breakout pick heading into 2027 drafts.
Stolen Base Disappointments
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jakob Marsee |
22 |
12 |
| Zach Neto |
20 |
11 |
| Luke Keaschall |
17 |
7 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
11 |
3 |
| Michael Harris II |
11 |
3 |
| Gunnar Henderson |
10 |
5 |
| Steven Kwan |
10 |
3 |
| Juan Soto |
9 |
3 |
| Jeremy Peña |
9 |
2 |
| Ozzie Albies |
4 |
4 |
| Francisco Lindor |
3 |
2 |
| Cole Young |
3 |
5 |
| Mookie Betts |
1 |
3 |
Zach Neto will be an interesting player to evaluate ahead of next season. On one hand, he looks like a solid bet to go 30-30. On the other, extreme base stealing inefficiency this season has led to huge droughts in that department for weeks on end and new management could push him to run less because of it. Also, his low batting average floor is potential scary for an early round pick.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Angels allowed the most stolen bases over the last week with 12. Of those 12, seven came in the two games and change that Moisés Ballesteros caught. He started two and left one of those early for a pinch-hitter and defensive replacement. Then, came on as a pinch-hitter mid-game in another and remained at catcher afterwards.
Acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline and known more for his bat, the Angels are giving Ballesteros a late season audition to see if he can hang at catcher moving forward.
His 105 1/3 innings behind the plate with the Angels in about six weeks is already more than double the amount of time he spent there with the Cubs between last September and the first two and a half months of this season.
Again, Ballesteros is not known for his defensive acumen. There have already been 13 attempted steals against him and he’s caught just two runners (15% caught stealing rate). He has a stockier build and struggles to get out of his stance to throw runners out despite having a solid arm.
If his bat can ever come around like his upper minors results indicate it should, there’s a path forward for him to have a fine career. It will be about that bat though because it’s difficult to see him ever offering much value defensively.
Target players against the Angels in any game which he catches. It’s worth that specific of a stream in daily set leagues because teams will run wild against him.
Also, we’re still targeting the Blue Jays, Rockies, Cardinals, and Giants as teams allowing some of the most stolen bases all season and more recently over the last two months as well. Funny enough, the addition of Will Banfield as a third catcher who plays a few days a week and in late game situations has helped the Reds with their run game shortcomings.
Check out Zack Gelof, Henry Bolte, Tim Tawa, Jordan Lawlar, Daylen Lile, Royce Lewis, Walker Jenkins, or Tommy Edman if you need cheap speed.
Read the full article here
