It’s no secret that stolen bases have boomed across major league baseball over the past few years.
Spurred by rule changes increasing the size of the bases and limiting the amount of times pitchers can throw over to first base, stolen bases increased by nearly 41% between 2022 and 2023 when these new rules were enacted.
They rose again last season and it marked the first time since 1988 and 1989 that at least 50 players stole 20 bases in consecutive seasons. Stolen bases are officially back.
Stolen bases are an exciting part of the game and I’m thrilled they’re back. Also, with more steals in the league, it means we need to accumulate more steals on our respective teams to keep pace with these rising numbers.
So I’m going to be here every Wednesday tracking stolen base trends around the league to let you know who’s stealing a lot of bases, who they stole them off of, and if there are any trends we can spot as to who will steal more coming up.
Mookie Betts has bounced back from illness, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is in a great spot with the Yankees.
First, here’s the stolen base leaderboard through six whole days of the season.
| Player | SB | CS |
| Oneil Cruz | 5 | 0 |
| Manny Machado | 4 | 0 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 4 | 0 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4 | 0 |
| Victor Scott II | 4 | 0 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 3 | 0 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3 | 1 |
| Jake Mangum | 3 | 0 |
| Kyren Paris | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Tied | 2 | 0 |
Oneil Cruz didn’t steal his fifth base last season until June! This season, he did so before April. He’s also stolen 25 consecutive bases in the regular season without being caught, dating back to last April. It appears as if base stealing has clicked for Cruz.
Now, here are players that disappointingly haven’t stolen a base yet.
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jose Altuve | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Ramírez | 0 | 1 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0 | 0 |
| Ozzie Albies | 0 | 0 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 0 | 0 |
| Wyatt Langford | 0 | 0 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Harris II | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Doyle | 0 | 0 |
| Matt McLain | 0 | 0 |
| Willy Adames | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Kwan | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0 | 0 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Robles | 0 | 0 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0 | 0 |
Next, here are four trends you should be watching to get more stolen bases on your fantasy teams.
Pirates Running Wild
The Pirates lead the league with 17 stolen bases already! That’s a ridiculous number led by Cruz with five, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa with four, and three more players with two apiece.
A whopping 15 of those total stolen bases game in Pittsburgh’s three-game set with the Marlins to open the season.
First on Thursday, they stole four off Sandy Alcantara and then two more off relief pitcher Jesús Tinoco. Base stealers were successful in 17 out of 20 attempts against Alcantara back in 2023, which was on the high-end of stolen base attempts against any starting pitcher in the league that season.
Then, the Pirates successfully stole two more on Friday off starter Connor Gillispie and then a whopping six bases on Saturday, all with relief pitchers on the mound.
In each game – Thursday and Saturday – where the Pirates stole six bases, Nick Fortes was the catcher. He allowed the second most stolen bases against last season despite starting fewer than 100 games behind the plate.
Francisco Lindor stole a base off the Alcantara/Fortes battery on Monday as well.
On Sunday, they attempted two more off Max Meyer and were only successful in one of those two. Then Monday, against the Rays and Drew Rasmussen, they stole two more bases.
The Pirates are ready to run wild this season and teams will be aggressive against the Marlins. This wound up as a perfect storm for stolen bases.
Pick on the Braves?
The Padres ran all over the Braves in their four-game sweep to begin the season. Overall, they stole nine bases in 10 attempts but nine of those 10 attempts came in just two games.
First, on Opening Day when they stole five. Three of which came against Chris Sale and then two more off reliever Aaron Bummer. Just 12 bases were stolen successfully against Sale last season on 16 attempts, so the Padres tendency to run Thursday was a surprise.
Perhaps because rookie Drake Baldwin was making his first career start behind the plate. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr. each swiped two bags and of those four total steals, three of them were of third base. There was a bit of a feeling they were pickling on the rookie.
However, the Padres stole four more bases on Sunday after attempting just one steal on Friday and Saturday combined when Chadwick Tromp was behind the plate rather than Baldwin. Nevertheless, they seemed very comfortable running with rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver on the mound.
This could all be moot when Sean Murphy – who is already out on a rehab assignment – returns from injury. But I will be paying close attention to this moving forward.
Run on the Rangers
The Red Sox stole eight bases against the Rangers over the weekend. Two of those came against Jacob deGrom, who’s notorious for allowing stolen bases, while four more came against relief pitchers, and two against Jack Leiter. They were never caught.
It seems like Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka will split catchers’ duties pretty evenly with the Rangers this season. Neither of them are particularly good in the run game with both having well below average pop times and Heim allowed the most stolen bases against in the league last season.
Between those two behind the plate and a handful of pitchers slow to the plate, it seems like teams will have success running on the Rangers.
Target Yainer Diaz
Diaz is expected to catch more often than he did last season when he started 99 behind the plate, 11 at first base, and 38 at DH.
Christian Walker will be the everyday first baseman this season and the Astros have been adamant about Yordan Alvarez playing the outfield less often, leaving fewer opportunities for the Astros to keep Diaz in the lineup with him starting at catcher.
Through five games this season, Walker and Alvarez have been at first base and DH every game while Diaz has caught four out of five. So, it seems like they weren’t lying.
Diaz’s value comes from his bat, where he profiles as one of the best offensive catchers in the league, rather than his defense. He saw the seventh-most stolen base attempts against him last season despite playing less frequently than many of the other starting catchers in the league.
He was better than average throwing out 24 of 105 would-be base stealers, but he seems like a catcher other teams will target.
The Mets rarely reached base during their opening series against the Astros, so there was no data from that series to speak of.
Then, on Monday, the Giants swiped three bases off the batter of Diaz and Ronel Blanco. Mike Yazstremski, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos were the culprits. None of those three are any type of speed demon or big stolen base threat.
Also, base stealers were successful in just seven out of 10 attempts against Blanco last season. It seems like the Giants were more so running on Diaz and were successful doing so.
Read the full article here
