Fantasy Baseball Steals Report: Jazz Chisholm keeps running, Harry Ford struggles

Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Understanding who’s stealing bases is even more important this time of year because with so much of the season already gone, it’s difficult to find ways to rise up in most categories. Yet, steals often have the least volume of all the categories, so the breadth isn’t as wide and a few shrewd moves can help you earn a lot of roto points.

Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.

Full Season Stolen Base Leaders

There have been very few changes to this leaderboard over the past few weeks. So, I’m introducing a new, more timely one right here.

Second Half Stolen Base Leaders

Otto Lopez has managed to save a bit of his value during a disastrous second half with plenty of stolen bases.

Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 8-for-9 as a base stealer over the last two weeks and is in a great position to swipe the 50 that he promised. Now he only needs 31 home runs over the next four weeks to make his 50-50 dream a reality.

Acquired at the trade deadline as part of the return for Kevin Gauman, Brett Bateman has seized the starting center field job for the Blue Jays, has hit lead-off in 14 of their last 16 games, and is a willing base stealer.

Stolen Base Disappointments

Julio Rodríguez has just five stolen bases, six home runs, and a .210 batting average since the All-Star Break.

Steven Kwan is pacing for his fewest stolen bases in a single season despite currently running a career-high .376 on-base percentage.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

Both the Red Sox and Nationals allowed 11 stolen bases over the past week, more than any other team.

More than half of Boston’s came in one game last Wednesday against the Marlins where Sonny Gray started and Connor Wong caught.

Gray was only on the mound for two of those stolen bases with the rest coming against a handful of relievers. He’s been poor in terms of net bases prevented and the 15 bases stolen against him this season are 10th-most among all qualified pitchers.

Wong has had defensive issues himself too. Anecdotally, nine of the 12 stolen bases attempted against the Red Sox over the last week came with him behind the plate. Plus, Adely Rutschman threw out the only runner they caught. Wong has had poor defensive metrics for a few years and it seems like teams are targeting him.

As for the Nationals, eight of the 11 bases stolen against them came with Harry Ford catching. A former top-100 prospect who was acquired for reliever José Ferrer this past offseason, the Nationals called Ford up in mid-July and he’s been splitting reps with Keibert Ruiz behind the plate since.

Defense was always considered a concern for Ford as a prospect and there were genuine questions as to whether he’d be able to stick as a catcher long term. He hasn’t quieted those concerns yet with just a 16% caught stealing rate – far worse than the 24% league average. It seems like teams will be challenging him when they play the Nationals.

While it’s hard for us to target Wong or Ford as part-time catchers, still look at Josh Lowe, Wade Meckler, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo (oddly enough), or Xander Bogaerts who all play against the Red Sox or Nationals over the next week if you need cheap speed.