Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Understanding who’s stealing bases is even more important this time of year because with so much of the season already gone, it’s difficult to find ways to rise up in most categories. Yet, steals often have the least volume of all the categories, so the breadth isn’t as wide and a few shrewd moves can help you earn a lot of roto points.
Last week, I highlighted Tyler Tolbert and Spencer Jones as stolen base streamers and they each swiped two.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
Eric Samulski lists his favorite streaming starts of the week and discusses some key pitch mix and shape changes
Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Nasim Nuñez |
42 |
8 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
35 |
7 |
| Chandler Simpson |
35 |
13 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
34 |
7 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
32 |
7 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
30 |
13 |
| José Caballero |
30 |
9 |
| José Ramírez |
29 |
4 |
| Esteury Ruiz |
29 |
6 |
There have been very few changes to this leaderboard over the past few weeks. So, I’m introducing a new, more timely one right here.
Second Half Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Chandler Simpson |
13 |
2 |
| CJ Abrams |
11 |
1 |
| Corbin Carroll |
10 |
1 |
| Andrés Giménez |
9 |
1 |
| Jake McCarthy |
9 |
1 |
| AJ Ewing |
9 |
1 |
| Esteury Ruiz |
9 |
3 |
| Tyler Tolbert |
8 |
0 |
| Otto Lopez |
8 |
1 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
8 |
1 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
8 |
2 |
| José Caballero |
8 |
1 |
| Nasim Nuñez |
8 |
4 |
A.J. Ewing is 11-for-12 as a base stealer since July 1st after struggling with his efficiency earlier this season.
Tyler Tolbert is stealing bases with a similar ferocity to Esteury Ruiz in a similar part-time role. Don’t forget about either if you need speed in a deep league.
Last Seven Days Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Otto Lopez |
3 |
0 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
3 |
0 |
| Corbin Carroll |
3 |
0 |
| AJ Ewing |
3 |
0 |
| Victor Robles |
2 |
0 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
2 |
0 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. |
2 |
1 |
| Royce Lewis |
2 |
0 |
| Tyler Tolbert |
2 |
0 |
| Joshua Báez |
2 |
1 |
| Trent Grisham |
2 |
1 |
After not successfully stealing a base between May 16th and August 9th, Shohei Ohtani has three in his last 14 games.
Joshua Báez’s current 162-game pace is for 59 home runs and 29 stolen bases. Not bad, right? No worries at all in how he’s gotten there so far.
Stolen Base Disappointments
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jakob Marsee |
20 |
12 |
| Xavier Edwards |
19 |
5 |
| Zach Neto |
18 |
11 |
| Julio Rodríguez |
17 |
3 |
| Luke Keaschall |
15 |
7 |
| Gunnar Henderson |
10 |
5 |
| Willi Castro |
9 |
5 |
| Michael Harris II |
8 |
3 |
| Bryce Harper |
7 |
5 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
7 |
3 |
| Francisco Lindor |
3 |
2 |
| Ozzie Albies |
2 |
4 |
| Mookie Betts |
1 |
2 |
While it’s been a strong season offensively, Xavier Edwards is pacing for his fewest stolen bases as a big leaguer.
Zach Neto has four stolen bases in his last 13 games. He only had four in his previous 55.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The Mariners allowed the second most stolen bases for the second consecutive week, so a trend has begun to develop.
Eight bases were stolen against them across six different games. Cal Raleigh was behind the plate for five of those games.
He’s graded out poorly so far this season in Baseball Savant’s caught stealing above average metric despite being strong in that area for years. Also, the Mariners hadn’t allowed too many stolen bases before the last two weeks – 13th-fewest in the league as of August 12th – so this feels more like something that’s been identified recently.
On the other hand, it feels like Raleigh has rediscovered his mojo lately. He just homered in four straight at-bats across two games and no bases were stolen on him or the Mariners through these two games.
The internet is joking that perhaps this butt-slap from Pete Crow-Armstrong gave Raleigh his swagger back. The bit is strong right now and these small sample results do not lie. Regardless, I’m still not totally ready to buy-in on the Mariners as a stolen base target.
However, another team I want to call to your attention are the Tigers. Only on certain days though. Dillon Dingler is their primary backstop and he’s grown into one of the best all-around catchers in the game. Yet, Eduardo Valencia has hit so well of late that they’re doing anything to get his bat in the lineup despite being poor defensively.
He started at catcher one time last week and the Royals stole five bases. The most embarrassing of which came when Salvador Perez swiped his first in five years.
Hope everyone had their sun dials out for that one. Pay to close attention to the day(s) when Valencia catches over the next week and stream literally anyone in the lineup against him. Anyone can be used literally in this sense if Perez is able to steal a base.
With day games against the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday, it’s likely Valencia catches one of those.
Lastly, we’re still streaming steals against the Reds and Blue Jays as the worst teams at controlling the run game this season. Check out Tyler Tolbert, Pedro Ramírez, Victor Robles, Jake Cronenworth, or Tyrone Taylor if you’re looking for cheap speed.
Read the full article here
