Fantasy baseball streamers and arsenal changes for Michael Soroka, Jose Soriano, more

Welcome to your fantasy baseball starting pitcher happy place. This is a new column for me this year that will combine a few things I’ve done in the past. In this article, every Monday, you’ll not only get a list of my favorite streaming starting pitchers for the whole week, but underneath that, you’ll get a breakdown of a few pitchers who are making interesting changes to their pitch mix. Today I covered Jose Soriano, Michael Soroka, Jack Kochanowicz, and Steven Matz.

It’s a little bit of rankings and a little bit of analysis, and hopefully a lot of help for your teams.

RELATED: Check out this week’s MLB Power Rankings!

As far as which pitchers on this list you’ll want to stream, your decisions will change based on your league type and settings. Since I’m listing starters for all week, I’m not going to be able to give a detailed analysis for each one; I’ll just highlight the matchup and some quick thoughts. As is usual with my articles, a streaming starter pitcher is rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo formats, so just keep that in mind as we’re going through because I won’t be mentioning pitchers who are rostered in more leagues than that, and I also won’t be mentioning pitchers who I would not start in any format.

Starting Pitcher Streamers of the Week

I guess a lot of people fell out of love with Mike Burrows, so his roster rate has tumbled. I still think he’s a solid pitcher with a bad fastball. I like pitchers in Seattle, so I’m happy to use him, and then all of Grant Holmes, Cade Cavalli, and Matthew Liberatore are matchup plays. Liberatore’s WHIP concerns me in shallower formats. I also like Justin Wrobleski longer-term if he gets a shot in the Dodgers’ rotation, but I don’t love this matchup, even with the Mets banged up.

Ryan Weathers was great his last time out, and I think he’s still adjusting to his new arm angle and pitch mix. I like him in this spot. I also like Reynaldo Lopez while he’s healthy, but I’m not sure I can take the gamble on Noah Schultz in his MLB debut. I’m happy to have him on my roster, but he has had some command issues, and the White Sox have been cautious with his usage, which makes me think he may not pitch deep into this game. I also remain a believer in Mick Abel, but Boston’s offense is starting to wake up.

I don’t LOVE any of these matchups. Sean Burke has looked good lately, so he can be considered in this start, and Slade Cecconi and Rhett Lowder are in solid matchups. I think Carmen Mlodzinski has the strikeout upside we’d want in this matchup, but Spencer Arrighetti has me a little worried only because it’s his first start off the IL. Otherwise, he’d be all alone in the top tier.

Both Steven Matz and Anthony Kay strike me as high-floor lefties who face off with one another in a pretty good spot. I don’t mind them as safe floor options. I also thought Keider Montero looked pretty good his last time out, so he could be worth a gamble. Foster Griffin has been pitching well, but the Pirates have been solid and I don’t fully trust it with Griffin.

Nobody really stands out here. Janson Junk had a bad start his last time out, and this matchup isn’t ideal, but it’s at home and I believe enough in what he’s changed this offseason. Lance McCullers also finds himself in a good matchup and could be a solid streamer this week.

I just can’t tell you that there’s anybody here I love. I know some people are high on Cade Povich, but I see just an average streamer so far. Cade Cavalli’s matchup is fine, but he doesn’t have the upside that I think many people assume he does. Brayan Bello had a good start over the weekend, but the whiffs and strikeouts weren’t there. Are we ever going to get 6+ innings while also getting strikeouts? It hasn’t really happened yet.

Another good spot for Mike Burrows, who has a solid two-step this week. I don’t love this spot for Ryan Weathers as much as the start against the Nationals, but I’m not running from this one. I do wish Joey Cantillo had a better matchup here because I remain a big fan of his.

Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix Changes

Michael Soroka – Arizona Diamondbacks (New Arm Angle, New Cutter)

Soroka is off to a tremendous start, pitching to a 2.87 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 15.1 innings. So how is he doing it? Part of the reason is the continued lowering of his arm angle, which is down from 33° to 28° this season compared. Part of that could be to help Soroka offset earlier injury concerns, but one of the consequences of the change has been a change in movement profile on many of his pitches. For example, there is over an inch less Induced Vertical Break (iVB) on his four-seam fastball and more drop and sweep on his curve. The new four-seam movement makes the pitch slightly flatter, and he is throwing it up in the zone 11% more often, which is nice, but it’s not a great pitch, and it’s getting absolutely pummeled by lefties. To combat that, he also added a cutter, which is 89 mph, five inches slower than his fastest, with typical cutter movement. However, that pitch is also getting hit hard by lefties and is really only a pitch he tries to sneak by hitters early in the count.

The bigger change may be that the added movement on the curve has really helped with swinging strike rate (SwStr%) against righties, which is up from 17% last year to 25% this year. The pitch still doesn’t miss many bats to lefties and also gets hit hard by lefties, but the improvement against righties is notable. Soroka is also using the sinker slightly more against righties, which has allowed him to increase his two-strike usage of the four-seam fastball and get more strikeouts that way.

At the end of the day, I think the added strikeout upside is clear. I don’t think we’re getting strikeouts at this rate, but I think he could be a 27% strikeout rate guy or better. The issue is that I think there are going to be some really rough starts ahead against teams that can stack lefties.

José Soriano – Los Angeles Angels (Four-Seam Usage, Curve Shape/Usage)

Perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball is Jose Soriano, who has a 0.33 ERA through four starts with a 31/9 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. However, this is another instance where I’m not sure we’re seeing a legitimate breakout. In the past, what we liked about Soriano was that he had a curve that missed bats against righties and a slider that could get strikeouts to lefties, paired with a sinker that induced plenty of groundballs. The issue was that his command was poor, and his four-seam fastball wasn’t good. With that in mind, it’s odd that the major change Soriano has made this season is throwing his four-seam fastball more.

Last year, he used the pitch 12% of the time to lefties and under 5% of the time to righties. He commanded it better against lefties, and it did miss bats, but it also got hit pretty hard. Against righties, he really struggled to command the pitch, which is likely why he rarely threw it. This year, he’s using the pitch nearly 29% of the time against lefties and over 19% of the time against righties. The command of the pitch has gotten better to righties, but he’s also given up tons of hard contact in a small sample size. That contact has mainly been on the ground, so he has not had many hits fall in, but it’s a dangerous tightrope to walk, especially with that defense behind him. Lefties are actually hitting the four-seamer even harder and have a 56% fly ball rate against it. Given the hard-hit rate it has allowed, plus the xBA and xwOBA, it makes sense to expect regression on his four-seamer. The SwStr% on the pitch is around league average to lefties, but it has produced well in two-strike counts versus lefties, so I understand wanting to use it more to get those punchouts. However, he rarely uses it in two-strike counts against righties, and I think he needs to dial back the usage against them overall.

There has also been a slight change to his curveball, which is a bit firmer and has lost nearly four inches of vertical drop. However, Soriano is doing a much better job of locating the pitch low in the zone and away from righties. I think that has helped the SwStr% jump from 18.7% last year to 22.2% this year. He’s also using it in two-strike counts 10% more often to righties than last year, which could be another reason for the uptick in strikeout rate. At the end of the day, I think the four-seam usage and curve changes will create more strikeouts for Soriano; however, the hard contact he’s allowing also tells me that regression is coming for those ratios. He is not going to continue sporting a .145 BABIP when he has a career .287 mark. I think you’ll be happy to have him on your roster this year, but I think a few blow-up starts are going to be in the cards.

Jack Kochanowicz – Los Angeles Angels (New Arm Angle, Changeup Usage, Slider Shape/Usage)

Let’s discuss another Angels pitcher who has seen some changes with the new pitching coach, Mike Maddux. Kochanowicz is another pitcher who changed his arm angle this season; however, he raised his arm angle from 30° to 37°. However, the four-seamer has very little change in its shape and is now actually steeper because of the higher slot. The sinker has a bit less drop than it did last year, but his command of that pitch has basically been “here it is over the middle of the plate; please don’t hit it too hard.” That’s not ideal.

A bigger change for Kochanowicz has been that his changeup usage is up to 27% overall from 14% last year. His usage against lefties, specifically, has gone from 20% to 33.6%, and the swinging strike rate has improved to 22%. That could be because the pitch has over two inches more arm-side run and over two inches more drop while still being thrown over 90 mph. That’s an interesting pairing with his sinker, which is now not sinking as much. That might be part of the reason why Kochanowicz is throwing the changeup over 22% of the time to righties after using it under 6% of the time to them last year. He pounds the zone with the changeup against righties, and while it does have some success in two-strike counts, it’s been more of an early-count pitch for him or to use when he’s behind to create confusion for hitters expecting a sinker. The pitch is not really allowing much hard contact at all, which is nice to see.

Lastly, Kochanowicz also tweaked his slider, adding four inches of drop and inches of sweep while keeping the same velocity. Against righties specifically, he’s now using it 6% more in two-strike counts and has a solid 25% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. The command of that pitch is not great, and he’s throwing it up in the zone far too often, but it’s a new shape, so you have to assume he will get more comfortable with it. These changes put Kochanowicz firmly on the streaming radar when I would not have trusted him in any matchup last year.

Steven Matz – Tampa Bay Rays (Changeup Usage, Slider Shape/Usage)

I was banging the drum for Ian Seymour to be in Tampa Bay’s rotation, but I have to admit that Steven Matz has been a solid signing so far. The big reason, in my eyes, is that the Rays are leaning into Matz’s changeup more. He’s using it 32% of the time this year and almost exclusively to righties. The pitch has slightly less drop this season, but a bit more arm-side run at a slower velocity, which has helped. He’s also doing a much better job of commanding it low and away to righties, which has led to a huge jump in SwStr%. However, it should be noted that most of those swinging strikes have come early in the count, and the changeup has not led to many strikeouts against righties.

He has also turned his slider into more of a whiff pitch, cutting about 5 mph but adding over six inches of drop and seven inches of horizontal run. It’s more of a sweeper now than a traditional slider, and that’s OK for us. The SwStr% against lefties remains at 22%, but he threw just nine TOTAL sliders to lefties last year, and he’s now using it 14% of the time to them. That’s gonna add more strikeout upside. He’s done a better job of commanding his sinker too, keeping it more at the edges of the strike zone, which has led to much less hard contact allowed. At the end of the day, I think he’s still a streamer, but we’re likely to get more strikeouts with his mix, and so that’s going to make him more valuable when he has a good run of matchups, as he does right now.