Let’s open up this week’s Waiver Wire with the oldest guy in the league.
Justin Verlander (SP Giants) – Rostered in 31% of Yahoo leagues
Stay the course. Verlander wasn’t very good in his second start of the season against the Mariners, but he was far better last time out versus the Reds, even if he gave up five earned runs along the way. All five of those came in one inning in which the Reds had two hard-hit balls, one a grounder and one a popup. Verlander didn’t even allow a hit over the rest of the outing, and he struck out nine batters while averaging 95.2 mph with his fastball.
Verlander’s velocity is one big reason to be optimistic about his performance in his age-42 campaign. He’s averaging 94.8 mph on the heater right now, putting him right in between the 95.1 mph he was at in 2022, when he won AL Cy Young honors, and 2023, when he was still strong in posting a 3.22 ERA. Last year, he was down to 93.5 mph and largely ineffective in the 17 starts he was able to make while dealing with injuries.
Maybe Verlander’s body will betray him again at some point, but everything besides his ERA is looking good right now. His strikeout rate stands at 26%. His groundball rate is up, too, since he’s throwing about three times as many sliders as curves. He’ll give up homers from time to time, but it helps that his home park suppresses them. That his next two starts are in Philadelphia and Anaheim isn’t ideal — and benching him should be in play for at least the first of those outings — but there ought to be some value for the long haul here.
Pavin Smith (1B D-backs) – Rostered in 5% of Yahoo leagues
After starting off in the minors for a second straight season, Smith, who received his most extensive playing time as a 25-year-old rookie in 2021, clawed his way back into Arizona’s plans last summer, particularly in hitting .290/..384/.677 in 73 plate appearances in September. The Diamondbacks penciled him in as Joe Pederson’s replacement in the DH role against right-handers this season, and he’s kept right on hitting, coming in at .400/.486/.667 in 35 plate appearances. He has five barrels, though just one homer, and 11 of his 18 balls in play have been hit hard.
Smith’s fantasy ceiling remains capped by his platoon role, one that will be difficult for him to escape after the D-backs re-signed Randal Grichuk in the offseason. The team could weaken the outfield defense by moving Corbin Carroll to center and playing Grichuk in right against lefties, but it’d probably take quite a sustained run from Smith to get them to consider it. Perhaps an injury will eventually open things up a bit.
For now, though, Smith will sit on average once or twice per week. He’s probably good enough to eke out some mixed-league value anyway, especially since he’s mostly hitting third in a quality lineup. His strikeout rate is up, but that’s a worthy trade for as much hard contact as he’s making.
Zebby Matthews (SP Twins) – Rostered in 18% of Yahoo leagues
Some were left shaking their heads when the Twins opted to promote David Festa with Pablo López hurt, but it might have just been a stopgap measure. Based on spring performance and the events of the first two weeks of the Triple-A season, Zebby Matthews had earned the opportunity to be the first addition to the Twins rotation. There’s a good chance that’s still going to happen next week.
Matthews, an eighth-round pick of Western Carolina in 2022, struggled some last year in his first taste of the majors, mostly because of the home run ball. He gave up 11 of those in amassing a 6.69 ERA in 37 2/3 innings over nine starts. He did have a fine 43/11 K/BB along the way, though. He wound up pitching 9 1/3 scoreless innings with a 12/1 K/BB this spring, and he’s opened up with a 1.80 ERA and a 13/1 K/BB in 10 innings for the Saints. In his minor league career, he’s struck out 29 percent and walked just three percent of the batters he’s faced.
While they’re not overly similar pitchers, Matthews could wind up very much like Bailey Ober for fantasy purposes. He’ll always give up homers, leaving him with unexceptional ERAs, but his slider will lead to a fine strikeout rate and the lack of walks will make him a big asset in terms of WHIP. He should offer some mixed-league value this season.
Waiver Wire Quick Hits
– I wasn’t going to do a full writeup of Nick Kurtz after James Schiano highlighted him Tuesday, but it would be nice to have him stashed. The 2024 first-round pick is already running out of things to prove after just 23 games in the minors, and the A’s aren’t getting much production out of left field. If they’re willing to put Brent Rooker out there most of the time, Kurtz could give the lineup a big lift while alternating with Tyler Soderstom between first base and DH.
– It’s hard to bet on Lance McCullers Jr. staying healthy at this point, but he’s two starts deep into a rehab assignment in his latest attempt to return from elbow problems and he could join the Astros rotation around the end of the month. He’s almost always been effective when he’s been able to pitch (3.48 ERA, 27% strikeout rate in 719 career innings). Maybe that will no longer be the case at age 31, but he’s rostered in only two percent of leagues and he’s (hopefully) quite a bit closer to returning than most of the IL starting pitchers.
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