While there are many different accounts of who first came up with the phrase, there’s no shortage of people who believe that “your best ability is your availability.” That’s especially true in fantasy basketball, as a player who boasts elite per-game production may not be worth a lot if he’s consistently on the shelf due to injury. The 2024-25 season is a “special” one in that it comes on the heels of an Olympic year.
So, is the longer player calendar of “season-Olympics-season” something fantasy managers should consider when drafting their teams? Honestly, that depends more on the player in question rather than assuming that every player who participated in Paris is at heightened risk of missing time. For this column, I’ve looked back at the Rio (2016) and Tokyo (2020) Olympic Games to see if anything stuck out regarding player production and availability.
Top 200 Rankings credit: Basketball Monster
2016 Rio Olympics
Thirty-seven players in the Rio Olympics saw action in the NBA the season prior, with seven playing 60 games or less in 2015-16. The highest-profile player of the six regarding fantasy value was Kyrie Irving, who appeared in 53 games for the Cavaliers. The other six were Joffrey Lauvergne (France), Manu Ginobili (Argentina), Cristiano Felicio, Marcelo Huertas, Nene (Brazil), and Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania). Regarding per-game fantasy value, Irving’s 2015-16 season ranked just outside the top 50 in 9-cat formats and the top 100 in totals. But Kyrie’s case is one in which it’s essential to consider when the games were missed instead of simply using the absences as a reason to drop him on draft boards.
Injured during Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals and subsequently undergoing surgery to repair a fractured left knee cap, Irving did not make his 2015-16 debut until December 20. From that point onward, he only missed five games, the last being Cleveland’s regular-season finale against Detroit. In 2016-17, Irving appeared in 72 games and was a top 25 fantasy player in both per-game and total value. Valanciunas saw the most NBA action in 2016-17 of the other six players mentioned, appearing in 80 games and finishing as a top 70 fantasy player (per game and totals). Ginobili, in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career, played 69 games in 2016-17 and finished outside the top 175 in per-game value, as did Nene (67 games), Felicio (66), and Lauvergne (70). As for Huertas, he only appeared in 23 games after playing 53 the season prior and was even less of a factor in fantasy basketball than that quartet.
In total, 29 of the 37 Rio Olympians appeared in at least 65 games the following NBA season, with Valanciunas, Patty Mills and Joe Ingles (Australia), Rudy Gobert (France), DeAndre Jordan (USA), and Bojan Bogdanovic (Croatia) playing at least 80. Regarding the United States, only Kevin Durant (62 games) and Kyle Lowry (60) did not play at least 70 games during the 2016-17 campaign. Twenty of the 37 were top 200 fantasy players in both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, with Irving and Ginobili being the only ones to have a season of fewer than 60 games played (2015-16 for both).
2020 Tokyo Olympics
The 2020 Olympics are an entirely different matter, as they were played in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding the NBA, the 2020-21 regular season was shortened to 72 games because the previous season was not completed until August. As a result, it did not take much for a player to fail to hit 60 games, much less the 65-game threshold that so many fantasy managers hold dear. Forty-seven Olympians played in the NBA during the 2020-21 season, with only 16 appearing in at least 60 games. Gobert led the way and played 71 of a possible 72 for the Jazz.
With the NBA returning to a “normal” calendar/schedule for the 2021-22 campaign, it was fair to wonder if the Tokyo Olympics would impact player availability. Placing any blame on a two-week event would be highly unfair, especially considering the scheduling havoc during those two seasons. But it is interesting that of the 47 who played in Tokyo, 19 played 60 games or more during the 2021-22 campaign. Among that group were Gobert (66 games), Evan Fournier (France; 80), Devin Booker (USA; 68), Keldon Johnson (USA; 75), and Jayson Tatum (USA; 76).
Regarding 9-cat per-game value, Tatum had the best fantasy season of any Olympian who played in Tokyo, finishing as a top 5 player. Kevin Durant (55 games) finished the 2021-22 season just outside of first-round value for standard, 12-team leagues, while Booker was a top 20 player. Among those who represented other nations, Gobert finished just inside the top 25, while Luka Doncic (65; Slovenia) was a few spots behind the then-Jazz center. If one were to punt turnovers, Doncic was nearly a first-round player in 12-team leagues.
The Tokyo Olympics and their impact on fantasy basketball were far trickier to judge because of the scheduling changes forced by COVID-19. The decrease in availability was likely more about the two seasons prior, beginning with the four-month hiatus and Orlando “bubble,” than athletes spending two-plus weeks in relative isolation representing their respective nations. So, Tokyo isn’t the best measurement to use when considering the potential impact playing in Paris could have on players in 2024-25.
2024 Paris Olympics
Fifty-four players in Paris this summer played in the NBA during the 2023-24 season, with 30 finishing as top 200 fantasy players. Availability-wise, 19 appeared in 60 games or fewer, some due to injury, while others were not locks to be in their respective team’s rotation on a nightly basis.
The highest-profile of those 19 was Joel Embiid, whose knee injury in late January sidelined him until April 2. The 2023 NBA MVP only played 39 games for the 76ers last season and did not look healthy during the team’s first-round playoff series against the Knicks. There were also questions regarding his fitness during the Olympics, but Embiid made it through with a clean bill of health and a gold medal. Given his overall injury history, it’s understandable that some fantasy managers who land a top-5 pick will actively avoid drafting Embiid.
Another Olympian who played fewer than 60 games last season was Jamal Murray (Canada), who appeared in 59 for the Nuggets. His most prolonged period on the sideline occurred in November, with the point guard missing 11 games (and two more after his initial return on November 29) due to a hamstring injury. The ankle injury in March that sidelined Murray for seven games may be more concerning from a timing standpoint. While he did not miss another game after returning on April 6, the Nuggets guard did not look to be at his best during the Paris Olympics. Even with external concerns regarding Murray’s health, that did not prevent the Nuggets from signing him to a lucrative extension in September.
Also of note regarding the availability of 2024 Olympians last season, 22 played at least 70 games. Three, Josh Giddey (Australia; 80), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada; 75), and Lu Dort (Canada; 79), were members of the Oklahoma City Thunder, with the former being traded to the Bulls this summer. Among the other 19 on that list were Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece; 73 games), Victor Wembanyama (France; 71), Anthony Davis (USA; 76), and LeBron James (USA; 71).
While LeBron may be approaching 40 years, his ADP has held steady compared to the 2023-24 season. In addition to Embiid and Murray, there could be some concern for Tyrese Haliburton, who dealt with a hamstring injury during the season, likely returning too early, and another leg issue during the Olympics. He took on his usual role in Indiana’s preseason opener on Tuesday, but it will be interesting to see how fantasy managers approach Haliburton in drafts.
Conclusion
So, what conclusion can be made from the last two Olympic men’s basketball competitions and their impacts on fantasy basketball? While the time off may be welcomed, there doesn’t appear to be much evidence to suggest that playing impacts availability. As we all know, injuries happen whether a player is “well-rested” or not. A more meaningful predictor would be a player making it clear that he’s prioritizing being healthy for the postseason over individual awards that only consider the regular season and their overall injury history.
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