With NBA play resuming on Wednesday, now is a good time to hold a roundtable discussing a few questions that will impact fantasy basketball for the rest of the season. Among those is whether or not someone can catch Nikola Jokic atop the fantasy rankings. He, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Victor Wembanyama have separated themselves from the pack. Rotoworld fantasy writers Nick Schlain, Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson, and Zak Hanshew offer their thoughts.
Between Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which player is better equipped to dethrone Nikola Jokic atop the fantasy rankings, and why?
Nick Schlain: If anyone overtakes Nikola Jokic as the top player in fantasy, I think it’d be Victor Wembanyama. When you compare Jokic’s numbers to those of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, their numbers are similar, except that Jokic is getting many more rebounds and assists. This year, Jokic is averaging 10.2 assists per game and 12.6 rebounds, while SGA is averaging 6.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.5 points per game, which leads the league, but Jokic improved his scoring and is averaging a career-high 29.8 points per game. SGA is also an established player at 26 years old in his seventh NBA season. This is likely close to his peak, whereas Wembanyama turned 21 in January and is in just his second season.
Wemby isn’t entirely on the same level as the other two in scoring; he averages 24.3 points per game this year. Still, he has a massive advantage in blocks per game with 3.8, which leads the league, and his three 3-pointers per game also bests both Jokic and SGA. Wemby’s 11 rebounds per game is also much closer to Jokic’s 12.6 rebounds per game than SGA, though he’s averaging fewer assists at 3.7 per game. Jokic is an absolute machine, and there’s probably no catching him as long as he puts up rebounds and assists like this. Still, if anyone can do it, it would be Wembanyama taking another step forward next year.
Noah Rubin: Victor Wembanyama. All three players have been in their own tier regarding fantasy production this season, but it’s about who has the most room for improvement. SGA has been elite, but can he be much better than he already has been? He’s incredibly efficient for a guard and leads the league in scoring. Wemby leads the league in blocks and provides elite value in points, rebounds, and three-pointers, but he still has room for growth. He’s the only player ranked in the top five in nine-cat leagues on Basketball Monster who shoots below 50 percent from the field. Wemby has only played a few games with De’Aaron Fox, but he should continue to get easier looks. He has a clear path to improve his field goal percentage, giving him a chance to dethrone Jokic.
Raphielle Johnson: As much as I like what SGA has done this season, Wembanyama is my pick due to his domination of the blocked shot category. He went into the break averaging 3.8 rejections per game, by far tops in the NBA. For me, the key to having any chance of surpassing Jokic is to have a clear advantage over him in a category. While SGA is averaging nearly three more points per game than the Joker, that’s a gap that can be closed easier than Wemby averaging 3.1 more blocks than Jokic. Gilgeous-Alexander’s lack of turnovers has served him well in nine-cat formats, but I’ll still take Wembanyama. Also, San Antonio’s position in the standings compared to Oklahoma City may mean that Wemby plays more down the stretch, especially if OKC maintains its lead atop the West.
Zak Hanshew: It’s Wemby for me. If SGA isn’t playing at his peak right now, there’s not much room left for him to climb. Wemby, on the other hand, is in Year 2 and has a clear path to improving his fantasy stock if his FG% and FT% tick up and his turnovers tick down. A dip in efficiency from SGA (particularly as a three-point shooter) would hit his fantasy value hard. Believe it or not, I think there are more blocks left on the table for Wemby. The scarcity of elite numbers in that category provides an unprecedented monstrous boost in fantasy value that can only grow for the Spurs’ phenom.
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