With NBA play resuming on Wednesday, now is a good time to hold a roundtable discussing a few questions that will impact fantasy basketball for the rest of the season. Having already discussed the top of the fantasy rankings, next up are the surprises. Nick Schlain, Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson, and Zak Hanshew make their picks for the overachieving player best equipped to maintain their value for the rest of the season.
Four players in Basketball Monster’s current nine-cat top-24 have Yahoo ADPs of 75 or higher (Trey Murphy, Josh Hart, Dyson Daniels, and Kristaps Porzingis). Of those four, which do you think will finish the season ranked highest, and why?
Schlain: Josh Hart. This one is simple for me. I don’t see Hart’s production slipping much in the second half. Hart is in Tom Thibodeau’s circle of trust and will continue to play as many minutes as he can handle for New York. Kristaps Porzingis will get time off in the second half as the Celtics look towards the playoffs, and a crippling injury is always a risk for him. Dyson Daniels should see big minutes for Atlanta in the second half but is averaging a 13/5/4 line compared to Hart’s line this year. Trey Murphy is probably the biggest threat to Hart as he’s having his best season in the NBA, but with the Pelicans out of it, he’s at risk of being shut down towards the end of the season.
Rubin: Murphy is ranked 12th on Basketball Monster, higher than the other three players. However, he has been ranked sixth over the past two months, while Daniels, Hart, and Porzingis are ranked between 17 and 20. With Dejounte Murray (Achilles) and Herb Jones (shoulder) ruled out for the rest of the season, and Brandon Ingram in Toronto, Murphy is the focal point of the Pelicans’ offense. Daniels, Hart, and Porzingis all play alongside high-usage stars, but Murphy has been playing that role for New Orleans.
CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson are there but haven’t prevented Murphy from shining. Even if Murphy is likely ranked the highest, that may not be enough for fantasy managers. The Pelicans hold the second-best lottery odds and will likely prioritize their chances of adding Cooper Flagg this summer. That could lead to Murphy missing quite a few games down the stretch, which wouldn’t impact his per-game nine-cat value, but it would be disappointing for fantasy managers relying on Murphy to help them win a championship.
Johnson: I like Murphy for this one. Over the past month, the Pelicans wing has provided top-15 value in eight- and nine-cat formats, per Basketball Monster. With Zion Williamson’s shaky availability, Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones done for the season, and Brandon Ingram now in Toronto, there’s ample room for Murphy to continue on his hot scoring run. Hart certainly has a chance of leapfrogging Murphy due to his rebound and assist production, while there may be too much ground for Daniels or Porzingis to make up at this point in the season.
Hanshew: Murphy has a blisteringly hot hand right now, but it’s tough to imagine him posting 40 burgers night in and night out. He’s provided top-12 fantasy numbers thanks to efficient shooting, strong defense, and low turnovers. He’s also benefited greatly from numerous injuries across the Pelicans’ roster. KP is typically a top-24 guy on a per-game basis, so that’s a safe choice, but it’s not one I’m excited to share. Instead, I’ll choose the Knicks’ unheralded hero, Josh Hart.
He easily has the lowest usage rate of any player on this list at a paltry 15.2. He doesn’t rely on hot scoring or single-category production. Instead, he’s a steady contributor in several categories and a triple-double threat on any given night. He’s seeing a ton of minutes and doing his damage while playing alongside ultra-talented teammates. Daniels has benefited dramatically from Atlanta’s firesale and injury to Jalen Johnson, and he’s doing it all as a scorer, rebounder, and facilitator specializing in steals. He’s a close runner-up to Hart.
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