Thursday is a jam-packed day filled with sports action and the Thursday NBA schedule features an eight-game slate. Four of the eight games have NBA spreads of at least 10 points, according to the latest NBA odds from the SportsLine consensus, so how should potential one-sided affairs affect how you make NBA player props on betting sites? Does that mean reserves could see more minutes and hit their Overs, while superstars with high over/under numbers fall Under due to playing time? The Cavaliers (-14.5, 238.5) are the largest favorites on Thursday and Cleveland options could be popular players to target in NBA prop bets. Evan Mobley (rest) is out, and you can find the best odds on Jarrett Allen to record a double-double on FanDuel Sportsbook for a -130 payout with expanded minutes likely.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet NBA player props on Thursday. These are the model’s favorite plays for maximum value.
Domantas Sabonis Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Although Sabonis had failed to hit this number in six of his last seven games, the model projects that to change on Thursday. The Kings play the Trail Blazers, who have allowed more than 120 points in back-to-back contests. Sabonis has gone Over this number in six of his last seven games against Portland, including having 21 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists in a triple-double earlier this year. This number has moved to 35.5 on some sportsbooks, but FanDuel is still offering it at 34.5.
Nikola Vucevic Over 16.5 points (-105)
This could be a chance to capitalize on this number earlier in the day as without the Lakers injury report out Thursday morning, there’s still a chance LeBron James and Luka Doncic play. However, with this being the second half of a back-to-back for the Lakers and coming off James’ winning tip-in at the buzzer, the Lakers could be inclined to rest their veterans. Either or both of them being officially ruled out could shift all odds more to Chiacgo’s favor. Vucevic has played fewer minutes lately due to foul trouble, but if James and/or Doncic are out combined with the Lakers’ lack of bigs, Vucevic could be on the floor more. He’s averaging 20.3 points per game when playing at least 30 minutes this season. BetMGM is currently offering the best odds at -105 while other betting apps are toward the traditional -110 odds.
Max Strus Over 9.5 points (-108)
Going off the game theory of this being a likely blowout, Strus could play a larger role and find success against a weaker opponent. He’s also performed better at home this season, scoring at least 10 points in 56% of games at home compared to 40% on the road and the higher amount of home one-sided contests play into that. The Spurs are allowing 123.2 ppg over their last 14 contests, and the model projects plenty of points from Cleveland, including Strus.
Dyson Daniels Over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
The model projects 6.5 rebounds for Daniels, and he’s had at least six rebounds in five of his last six games. Daniels is coming off a near-triple double with 19 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists over 36 minutes against the Rockets on Tuesday as that performance should earn him increased playing time. He has gone Over this number in eight of his last 11 and 15 of his last 23 games as he has both personal and potential financial interests to finish the regular season strong despite Atlanta seemingly locked into the NBA Play-In Tournament. The odds have already been juiced above -110, but the -120 number at DraftKings Sportsbook is better than other books.
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 rebounds (+128)
When VanVleet is at this number at plus money, it’s often a popular play by the model and that’s for good reason. The model liked it on Tuesday and VanVleet finished with four rebounds to cash. The Rockets guard is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this season and the model projects him at 3.9 again and those two coinciding often lead to positive results. Houston is a 13-point favorite and although you’d think he’d be susceptible to a minute-reducation hurting his chances at hitting an Over, his rebounding average increases to 4.2 per game and the Over is 9-4 when the Rockets are favored by eight points or more. FanDuel Sportsbook offering this at +128 is a significantly better payout than other sportsbooks as well.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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