The Wednesday NBA schedule features six games, including the New York Knicks hosting the Los Angeles Clippers as New York plays the second half of a back-to-back. The Knicks (+3.5, 217.5) are 5-6 overall and 2-9 against the spread in the second half of a back-to-back this season, including allowing 127.5 points per game over their last four second legs. Does this mean you should target Clippers player props scanning over betting sites when making Wednesday NBA props bets? Kawhi Leonard has an over/under for total points set at 22.5 points and he’s gone Over this total in six straight games, so should you include Leonard total points in NBA player props? You can also find a +400 payout on FanDuel Sportsbook for Leonard to score at least 30 points, which he last did on March 18 against the Cavaliers.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet NBA player props on Wednesday.
Jamal Murray Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+128)
Murray has had at least two steals in two of his last four games and the model projects him at 1.5 steals for Wednesday, which puts him in a strong chance at covering this number even without blocks. Murray does have a block in two of his last five games though, so he adds that potential. With Nikola Jokic (ankle) doubtful against the Bucks, which signals another likely heavy workload for Murray in a matchup of two teams who played at the top-11 fastest paces in the league. He’s gone Over this number in 60% of home games this season and at plus-money odds (+128) on Bet365, this appears a strong play.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 rebounds (+142)
Bridges has continued to take on a larger role with Jalen Brunson (ankle) out the last 12 games, and he’s gone Over this rebounding number in eight of the 12 games without the star point guard. He’s gone Over 3.5 rebounds in three of four games as well, and after having just one rebound on Tuesday, the model views the current odds as an overreaction to just one game. But with that comes opportunity. The model projects Bridges at 3.5 rebounds, so the chance to get it at better than +140 odds presents strong value. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering the best price at +142 odds.
Josh Hart Under 6.5 assists (+110)
Hart is coming off 11 assists as a part of a triple-double on Tuesday, but he hasn’t recorded more than six assists in the second half of a back-to-back in any of his last five attempts. He also has failed to cover his assist over/under total in eight of his last 10 home games against winning teams as the Knicks will play the Clippers. Multiple sportsbooks are offering this play at plus-money, but DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best odds at +110.
Alex Sarr Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-116)
The model views this as a buy-low opportunity after Sarr has gone Under this total in two straight games. However, before the last two, he went Over this number in eight of nine contests and he’s remained aggressive with his shot, which is often the biggest key to hitting a PRA bet. Sarr had 19 shot attempts on Monday despite finishing with just 16 points and he’s averaging 17 field goal attempts over his last six games. It’s another lost season for the Wizards and they’ve seemingly told their No. 2 overall pick rookie to play with complete freedom.
Nic Claxton Over 20.5 points + rebounds (-110)
With Cameron Johnson (rest) and backup center Day’Ron Sharpe (knee) out on Wednesday for the Nets, Claxton should see both a minutes and usage increase. The 25-year-old center had 19 points and seven rebounds over 27 minutes against the Mavericks on Monday and the model projects him for 13 points and 10.5 rebounds on Wednesday. Claxton is averaging 10 rebounds over his last four games. The Nets play the Raptors and Claxton had 16 points and 10 rebounds against Toronto earlier this season as he’s had a points + rebounds total of at least 25 in three of his last four games against Toronto. His number has risen from 19.5 to 20.5 on sportsbooks, so it could climb even higher closer to the start.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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