There are five games on the NBA schedule on Thursday, which means plenty of NBA player props to choose from. Lakers vs. Bucks is a matchup between two potential title contenders, but LeBron James (groin) is out and Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable for Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) and Damian Lillard (calf) are probable for Milwaukee. The injuries create opportunities to try your hand against oddsmakers with players who are stepping into larger roles.
The latest NBA odds from FanDuel SportsBook list Austin Reaves’ over/under for combined points and assists at 29.5, so is that a value for your NBA prop picks given the latest NBA injury report? The SportsLine Projection model can help you identify value in the NBA prop odds to build a slate of NBA prop picks that can get you in the game on Thursday.
SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed a projected over/under for each player in each matchup. Here are some of its favorite picks.
Alex Sarr over 11.5 points (-115 Bet365)
The Wizards are very clearly in the tank for Cooper Flagg in the 2025 NBA Draft, but developing younger players is also a priority and Sarr has already come a long way this season. The No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft is averaging 13.7 points per game since the NBA all-star break and he’s averaging 14.0 shots per game in that span after averaging 11.0 during the first half of the season. The model acknowledges that he isn’t shooting the ball particularly well right now but predicts that he uses volume to hit the Over here, which you can get for -115 at Bet365.
Nikola Vucevic double-double (+140 Bet365)
The Bulls are on a three-game winning streak and likely bound for the NBA play-in tournament with a 4.5-game cushion over the Raptors for 10th in the East, and Vucevic is having his best season in Chicago with the franchise in a state of flux. He’s averaging 19.0 points and 10.3 rebounds per game while piling up 37 double-doubles in 56 games. That makes the plus-money alluring here, and Bet365 is offering the best price at +140.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 7.5 points (-130 DraftKings)
The nine-year NBA veteran landed with the Lakers as part of the D’Angelo Russell trade and he’s moved into the starting lineup more often than not over the last two months. The stretch four is taking more than three-quarters of his shots from beyond the arc and he’s gone over 7.5 points in three of his last four games entering Thursday night. With Jaxson Hayes out against the Bucks, the model expect Finney-Smith to be even more active than usual tonight and it’s laying the juice (-130 at DraftKings SportsBook) to play this over.
CJ McCollum over 25.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-110 Hard Rock)
The frontcourt in New Orleans is thinned and that likely means a heavy dose of McCollum usage as the Pelicans take on the Magic on Thursday night. The veteran guard is averaging 21.4 points, 3.9 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game (29.0 PAR) and he cruised past this number on Tuesday night with 23 points, seven assists and three rebounds against the Clippers. He averages 30.5 PAR at home this year and has hit at least 26 on this line in 29 of his 50 games overall.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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