The home run is one of the most exciting plays in sports, so it’s no surprise that MLB HR props are among the most popular betting markets available. With 15 home runs in their first three games, the Yankees are taking baseball by storm with their “torpedo bats,” but Aaron Judge has still used a conventional bat to mash four homers already. The latest MLB HR odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Judge at +225 to hit a home run, and if you’re looking for a little extra juice you can get +1400 for him to hit two or more HRs.
Using the weather and MLB pitching matchups to identify the best MLB HR prop values can help you find an edge as you’re making your MLB home run prop picks. With MLB HR prop odds available for almost every player at in every game at sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Tuesday and these three picks can be parlayed for +23105 odds and would pay out $1,160.25 on a $5 bet.
The five-time MLB all-star and two-time World Series MVP has hit at least 30 home runs in three consecutive seasons and he’ll have a crisp spring evening to work with at Great American Ballpark on Tuesday, with a temperature in the mid-50s and very light winds. More importantly for this prop, he’ll have an excellent match up against Reds right-hander Carson Spiers, who has a 5.64 ERA over 103 2/3 innings in the majors.
“Of the 351 pitchers in MLB that pitched 50 or more innings last season, only eight pitchers had a worse HR/9 than Carson Spiers’ 2.0. Lefties in particular had a ton of success against Spiers with a .944 OPS,” SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We would set the line for a Seager HR at around +220.” You can find this line for +350 at BetMGM if you’re making a single play, but DraftKings offers the best odds for parlaying these three best bets.
Ramos made his first MLB all-star team last season by breaking out with 22 home runs over just 475 at-bats and he’s already clubbed two home runs early in the 2025 MLB season. Now he gets this plus matchup in a ballpark (Minute Maid Park) that is very friendly to right-handed hitters. The DraftKings price of +550 is currently the best available.
“The Daikin Park roof is likely closed, but if it were open the HRI is an 8 out of 10 with winds going out. Ramos is 1-for-3 in his career off Hayden Wesnewski and that lone hit is a HR,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +464 for Ramos to hit a HR.”
Naylor smashed 31 home runs and produced 108 RBI to earn an all-star acknowledgement last year in Cleveland and now he replaces Christian Walker at first base for the Diamondbacks this year. He’s still searching for his first home run of the season, but he’s off to a blistering 6-for-15 start with a couple of extra-base hits and the lefty’s raw power should play well even on a cold day in Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out and a short porch in right field.
“Naylor has a good matchup against a rookie that has been hit hard, and factoring in the weather we would put this around +550 so still strong value here,” Fetner said. His price at DraftKings is also the best available.
Want more MLB picks for Tuesday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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