When the Mets signed Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract this offseason, the expectation was that Soto would provide some thunder near the top of the lineup and continue to be an on-base machine. Through the first few weeks of the season, Soto has been a constant on the basepaths (.410 OBP), but the power has been lacking. He’s only hit one home run in his first 14 games with New York battling some pitcher-friendly weather so far this spring, but it’s only a matter of time before the four-time All-Star breaks out. The latest MLB home run prop odds from FanDuel Sportsbook price Soto at +350 to hit a home run on Sunday as the Mets take on the Athletics in Sacramento. Should you back Soto to hit a homer, and what other sluggers should you add to your MLB HR parlays?
Every team in the majors is in action during the Sunday MLB schedule, so there are a litany of options for your MLB home run parlays. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It has correctly called a home run prop in four out of five days this week for a +10.5u return overall since Monday. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Sunday. These three picks can be parlayed for +11032 odds and would pay out $556.50 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pete Alonso HR (+340)
Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs in each of his first five MLB seasons, and he’s off to another blistering start in 2025. He’s already clubbed four homers and also leads the National League in RBI (18), slugging (.714) and OPS (1.164). The Mets will battle the Athletics on Sunday and it will be a warm day (78 degrees) with winds blowing from left to right. Alonso hit a home run in Sacramento on Friday night and he gets a juicy matchup against Luis Severino on Sunday.
The former Met has already surrendered four home runs in three starts and Alonso has hit all four of his home runs this season against right-handed pitching. FanDuel has the best available price here.
Marcell Ozuna HR (+360)
After Hurricane Milton caused significant damage to the roof at Tropicana Field, the Rays are now forced to play their home games outdoors at the spring training facility of the New York Yankees. George M. Steinbrenner Field is a replica of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and a nearly 80-degree day with the wind blowing out bodes well for offense on Sunday. Ozuna has a 1.065 OPS this season and has already hit three home runs, including one on Friday in this stadium.
Now, he’ll likely battle Tampa Bay’s bullpen arms for the series finale, and his splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching throughout his career are nearly identical. Both BetMGM and FanDuel have Ozuna priced at +360 in their MLB HR odds.
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model’s MLB score projections and props for every game on Sunday, all from the model on a 34-19 roll.
Nick Castellanos HR (+450)
Sometimes matchups and weather conditions align perfectly, and that’s the case for Castellanos on Sunday. He has raked against left-handed pitching throughout his career (.528 slugging percentage) and is 8-for-16 against lefties so far this season. He’ll match up with Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals today and the wind will be blowing out at 20 mph to left field on a warm day in St. Louis. Liberatore has a 5.84 ERA on the season and FanDuel and BetMGM have the best price on Castellanos to go yard this afternoon.
You’ve seen the best MLB home run picks from the model. Now, see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 44-22 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 44-22 roll.
Read the full article here
