Home runs can instantly change the outcome of a game, so it’s no surprise that MLB HR props are among the most popular betting markets available. Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker has already slapped four home runs in his first season in Chicago, tied with Aaron Judge for the second-most in the MLB. On Wednesday, Tucker and the Cubs will take on the Athletics at 3:35 p.m. ET. The latest MLB HR odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Tucker at +425 (risk $100 to win $425) to hit a home run, and if you’re looking for a little extra juice, you can get +1100 for him to hit a homer in his first at bat.
Using the weather and MLB pitching matchups to identify the best MLB HR prop values can help you find an edge as you’re making your MLB home run prop picks. With MLB HR player props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, using SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Wednesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +19535 odds and would pay $981.75 on a $5 bet.
Juan Soto HR (+340 DraftKings)
Soto is off to a slow start in his first season with the Mets, having hit just one home run through his five games. However, Soto has proven he has the power to turn things around quickly. Last season, Soto reached 40 home runs for the first time in his career and led the AL in runs scored with 128. Soto went 0-for-3 in yesterday’s loss to the Marlins, but SportsLine’s data scientists see value in these odds given his advantageous matchup.
“Soto has a good matchup against a rookie RHP in Connor Gillespie, who allowed 22 HRs in the minor leagues last season,” SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Soto is great vs. both RHPs and LHPs, but his SLG% is much higher against RHPs. We would set the line at around +270 for Soto to homer.” Many sportsbooks are offering this line at +320, but DraftKings offers the best odds at +340.
Mike Trout HR (+425)
Trout has yet to hit a home run this season, but he’s recorded two RBI in each of his last two games. The 11-time MLB All-Star is working his way back from a torn meniscus that ended his season in 2024 and is rounding into form with a hit in three of his past four contests. The three-time MVP has 378 career home runs, the second-most among active MLB players.
“Trout is very familiar with Sonny Gray, having faced him 39 times in his career,” Fetner pointed out. “While Gray has 13Ks against Trout, four of Trout’s 10 hits against Gray have been HRs. We set the line at +368 for Trout to homer, and according to the forecast, the Home Run Index in this game is a 9 out of 10.”
Eugenio Suarez HR (+750)
Suarez enters Wednesday’s matchup against the Yankees leading the majors in home runs with five. Suarez has homered at least once in four of his first five games and is coming off a 1-for-4 performance with a home run and four RBI in yesterday’s win over New York. The slugging third baseman has five hits this season, all of which are homers, so it’s easy to see why the data scientists are including him in their Wednesday MLB HR parlay.
“Suarez is as low as +450 in several other books, which makes sense given his torrid start to the season,” Fetner told SportsLine. “Carlos Rodon allowed 31 HRs last season, which was tied for the second most in baseball. He allowed just one earned run in his first start of the season, and it came on a HR. Factoring in the weather, we would put the line closer to +420 for Suarez to homer.”
Want more MLB picks for Wednesday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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