The torpedo bats of the New York Yankees might be a fad, but if you’re making MLB home run picks, it’s you can’t ignore them at this stage of the season. The Yankees have blasted 19 home runs in five games this season and their inclusion in any MLB HR props is almost mandatory at this point. The latest MLB home run odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Anthony Volpe at +800 despite the fact he’s tied for the American League lead with teammate Aaron Judge (+150) with four homers already. Judge is +650 to hit a homer in his first at bat and +1100 to hit 2+ home runs.
However, Yankees opponent Eugenio Suarez leads the MLB with five home runs and is priced at +340 to go yard in Thursday’s MLB player props. With MLB HR prop odds available for almost every player at in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Thursday and these three picks can be parlayed for +20250 odds and would pay out $1,017.50 on a $5 bet.
Hunter Goodman HR (+450)
Goodman’s 13 home runs in only 221 at-bats last season where aided by the thin air in Colorado, but he’s got power that plays anywhere and the wind is expected to blow out hard at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Thursday. Goodman has already homered in both games that the Rockies have played in this series against the Phillies and he’s hit bombs in bunches dating back to his days in college at Memphis.
“Goodman has hit a HR in both games of this series so far, and now he is facing Taijuan Walker, who allowed 24 home runs in just 83 2/3 innings last season,” SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +412 for Goodman to homer.” Goodman is +450 at DraftKings, whereas he’s only +350 at FanDuel.
Ketel Marte HR (+400)
The two-time all-star is coming off a career-high 36 home runs in 2024 and he’ll take on Carlos Carrasco on Thursday after he was rocked by the Brewers on Saturday. Marte hasn’t homered yet in 2025 but he is 7-for-24 with a couple of extra-base hits and he reached base three times yesterday after signing a six-year extension.
“Marte has yet to hit a HR in his career off Carrasco, but he is a solid 4/12 against Cookie in his career,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +330 for Marte to hit a HR.”
Cody Bellinger HR (+650)
The former NL MVP and two-time all-star is a known torpedo bat adopter in his first season with the Yankees and he’s off to a suggestive start, going 5-for-17 with a home runs, four runs scored and six RBI in five games. He revived his career by hitting 44 home runs over the last two years in Chicago and it’s easy to see him being an even bigger power threat this season in lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium.
“Bellinger is quite familiar with Merrill Kelly as he has faced him 30 times in his career, but now he has the short porch and a torpedo bat to work with. We set the line at +480 for Bellinger to hit a HR and, unlike yesterday, the weather is a lot more favorable for home runs today,” Fetner said. His price at DraftKings is also the best available. Bellinger is +650 at DraftKings, higher than at other betting apps like FanDuel (+450).
Want more MLB picks for Thursday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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