Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez hit five home runs in his first five games of the season, but he has been held hitless in four of his five games since then. He is facing Orioles starter Zach Eflin during the Monday MLB schedule, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Eflin has allowed two home runs in his first two starts of the season. The latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Suarez at +480 to hit a long ball on Monday.
Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani has three homers this season and is +220 to leave the yard against Washington. Ohtani has the shortest home run odds of any player in the league on Monday, so should you include him in your MLB home run bets? With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Monday. These three picks can be parlayed for +11699 odds and would pay out $584.95 on a $5 bet.
Christian Walker HR (+470)
Walker got off to a slow start this season with three hits in his first six games, but he has responded with a pair of multi-hit performances in his last three games. He hit his first home run of the season at Minnesota last week, launching a 402-foot bomb off Joe Ryan in the second inning. Walker had 26 homers in 552 plate appearances with Arizona last season, so it is likely only a matter of time before he starts consistently leaving the yard for the Astros. He is 2 of 6 with a home run against Logan Gilbert in his career, and the model has him at +348 to hit a homer on Monday, providing value at this price.
Fernando Tatis Jr. HR (+400)
Tatis was limited to 99 starts last season, but he was still able to rack up 21 home runs and a .276 batting average. While he only has one homer so far this season, he is batting .368 through his first 38 at-bats. He is facing Athletics starter Luis Severino, who allowed 23 home runs last season. Tatis is 1 of 3 in his career against Severino, but that one hit was a homer.
“We would set the line at +358 for Tatis to home tonight in Sacramento, where the wind is expected to be blowing out slightly,” SportsLine Date Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “We think Tatis is due for a HR after 8 straight homerless games despite seeing the ball well and hitting .368 to start the season.”
Pete Alonso HR (+350)
The 30-year-old has already racked up nine hits in his first 31 at-bats of the season, with three of those hits leaving the yard. Alonso has been as consistent as any power hitter in baseball in recent years, finishing inside the top 13 in home runs in every season dating back to 2019. He is facing unproven Marlins starter Valente Bellozo, who allowed 15 homers in just 13 starts last season.
“Alonso has 3 HRs in his last 6 games, and despite the cold weather, he has enough power to go yard in any weather if he gets a hold of the ball,” Fetner said. “Factoring in the weather, we would set his line around +290 to hit a HR, and you are getting good value on FanDuel opposed to other books.”
Want more MLB picks for Monday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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