Baseball in the spring can be a rollercoaster, so successfully betting MLB player props requires you to keep a close eye on the MLB weather forecast. Cold and dreary figure to be a theme on the East Coast and in the Midwest, and the Monday MLB schedule features several games with temperatures expected to be in the 30s and 40s with rain. That’s usually not a situation conducive to many runs being scored, so what MLB pitching props should you keep an eye on?
The latest MLB prop odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list the over/under for strikeouts thrown at 5.5 for both Cubs starter Justin Steele and Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi in a matchup where the conditions heavily favor the pitchers. There are numerous MLB prop bets and MLB same-game parlays to consider at the top sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help inform your MLB best bets.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Friday.
Corbin Carroll over 1.5 combined hits, runs, RBI (-130)
The 2023 NL Rookie of the Year got off to a sluggish start in 2024 but posted a .919 OPS with 17 of his 22 home runs in the second half. He’s carried that over into 2025 and is 11-for-39 to start the season with a 1.032 OPS, three home runs, six RBI and seven runs scored in 10 games.
“Carroll is coming off a three-hit game yesterday and is seeing the ball very well,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Eflin has a 4.27 road ERA compared to a 2.85 home ERA since last season.” The model projects 2.2 combined hits, runs and RBI on average for Carroll and DraftKings has the best price at -130.
Cedric Mullins over 0.5 total bases (-165)
No weather issues in Arizona with Chase Field’s retractable roof and the model is leaning pretty heavily into the overs with 10.1 projected runs scored in a game where the actual over/under is 8.5. Mullins is slashing .313/.436/.656 this season and has already piled up 21 total bases in nine games. The model is projecting that he finishes with 1.8 total bases on average against the Diamondbacks on Monday and BetMGM Sportsbook has the best price at -165.
Michael Lorenzen under 17.5 total outs recorded (+105)
The 33-year-old veteran began his career as a starter, spent years working out of the bullpen and then has primarily been in the rotation the last several years. He’s not typically an innings eater, so getting plus-money on him to not finish the sixth seem like an incredible value.
He threw 5 1/3 innings in his first start of the season and he only finished the sixth inning once from June 18 on in 2024. Now the model is projecting he records 16.5 outs on average and encourages you to jump on the +105 being offered at DraftKings.
Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts (-128)
May was terrific in his first start of the season, giving up one hit and one unearned run over five innings while striking out six in a win over a solid Braves lineup. Even more impressive, it was his first start since May 17, 2023. Now he draws the upstart Nationals, who have struck out 96 times in nine games this season.
“The books have this priced all over the place, so you are getting strong value on 4.5 at -128 on FanDuel. We have May projected for 5.2 strikeouts tonight,” Fetner said.
Nathan Eovaldi over 18.5 total outs recorded (+120)
On the other hand, Eovaldi has been known for reliability and a brutally cold and rainy day in Chicago sets him up nicely to work deep into the game for Texas on Monday. He worked six innings in his first start of the season and only threw 87 pitches in the process, then followed that start up by throwing a complete-game shutout against the Reds on April 1 that only required 99 pitches.
He’s absolutely dealing right now and the model is projecting that he records 19.1 outs on average. DraftKings has the best price at +120.
Want more MLB picks for Monday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
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