Gerrit Cole injury: Seven ripple effects for Yankees and others as their ace gets Tommy John surgery

It is the worst-case scenario for the New York Yankees and ace Gerrit Cole. Cole, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner, will have Tommy John surgery on Tuesday, the Yankees announced Monday evening. Cole experienced soreness in his elbow following his March 6 start and tests revealed the tear in his UCL. He will miss 2025 and, given the usual 14-18 month recovery, the start of 2026 as well.

“There’s no script for this. In any sport, injuries happen,” Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt said this past weekend (via MLB.com). “You have to make adjustments. There’s no set plan in stone when you show up to spring training. The inevitable injuries are going to pop up. Sometimes when it rains, it pours a little bit, but we know we’ll be able to weather the storm. I think that’s why we play 162 games.”

There is no sugarcoating it. Losing Cole is a devastating blow to a Yankees team that lost the World Series last year and Juan Soto in the offseason, and wants to get over the hump in 2025. He is on the short list of the best pitchers in baseball and I don’t think it would have surprised anyone if Cole had come out and won another Cy Young this year. Guys like that are irreplaceable.

Here are the ripple effects Cole’s Tommy John surgery will have on him, the Yankees, and the rest of baseball.

1. Cole’s outlook after surgery

Cole turned 34 in September and that is on the older side for a first-time Tommy John surgery. For a lot of pitchers, Tommy John surgery at that age is a career-ender. Cole is not most pitchers though. He’s starting at such a high talent baseline and is so smart and so cerebral that he’s earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to remaining effective into his mid-to-late 30s.

Perhaps the best comparison for Cole is Justin Verlander, his former Houston Astros teammate. Verlander’s elbow gave out in July 2020, during his age-37 season. He missed 2021 while rehabbing, then won the AL Cy Young in 2022, and helped the Astros win the World Series. The Yankees would sign up for a similar outcome with Cole no questions asked. Alas, it’s not that simple.

Here are the last few starting pitchers other than Verlander to have Tommy John surgery at age 34-plus, and then return to MLB:

Arroyo and Marquis were basically done after Tommy John surgery, though, in terms of pitching style, they were nothing like Cole. Ryu pitched effectively with his new elbow ligament, then returned to Korea once his contract expired. This list doesn’t tell us much about what to expect from Cole when he return. It just shows how rare it is for a starter this age to have his elbow rebuilt.

Several relievers Cole’s age have had Tommy John surgery and returned to pitch well (David Robertson, etc.), but I would not count on the Yankees sticking him in the bullpen anytime soon. Jacob deGrom, now 36, returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and is heading into his first season back. That was his second Tommy John though, and the second carries more risk than the first.

The Yankees will hope Cole returns as effective as his pal Verlander was in 2022. In terms of talent and pedigree and pitching style, Cole is certainly closer to Verlander than Arroyo and Marquis. Bottom line, every pitcher is a different person. Tommy John surgery is fairly routine — “routine” — but it is still a major surgery. Until Cole gets back on a mound, we just don’t know.

2. Fried, Rodón need to carry load for Yankees

In addition to Cole, the Yankees also lost reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to a lat strain this spring. He will be sidelined until at least late May or early June. Gil was terrific last year filling in for Cole, who missed the first two-and-a-half months of the season with a nerve issue in his elbow. Between Cole and Gil, the Yankees are down 275-300 good to great innings now. Maybe more.

This is New York’s rotation depth chart at the moment:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (will miss 2025 with Tommy John surgery)
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil (will be until late May/early June with lat strain)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (slowed this spring by an achy back)
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP JT Brubaker (will miss several weeks with broken ribs)
8. RHP Will Warren
9. RHP Carlos Carrasco (on a minor-league contract)

It goes without saying now that Fried and Rodón must carry the load at the front of the rotation for the Yankees. They’re the veterans with nine-figure contracts. Fried joined the Yankees on an eight-year, $218 million deal this past offseason. That is the richest contract ever given to a lefty. Rodón is entering Year 3 of his six-year, $162 million contract.

Rodón’s first two years with the Yankees were a mixed bag. He was hurt and ineffective in 2023. In 2024, he did not miss a start and mostly pitched like a mid-rotation starter, with several stretches where he was quite a bit better. Fried almost seems underrated — his 141 ERA+ since 2019 is second best in baseball behind, well, Cole and his 143 ERA+.

The Yankees signed Fried with the intention of pairing him with Cole in a short postseason series. Cole’s injury changes things, and now the Yankees need Fried and Rodón to be the veteran stabilizers who allow manager Aaron Boone to get a good night’s sleep two out of every five days. This is why these guys make the big bucks. To carry the team in times of crisis.

3. The offense needs to pick up the slack, too

Because losing Cole and Gil is not enough, the Yankees also will be without Giancarlo Stanton to begin the season. He is dealing with “severe” soreness in both elbows and is trying to avoid surgery that he said would be season-ending. The Yankees do not have a timetable for Stanton’s return. He is receiving treatment and they’re hoping for the best. It’s possible he misses 2025, too.

Stanton is no longer the hitter he was in his prime, but the guy hit 27 homers in 114 games last season, and has averaged 41 home runs per 162 games the last three years. Stanton can still change the game with one swing in any at-bat. It’s a presence you can not easily replace. Without Stanton, New York’s regular lineup figures to look something like this:

1. C Austin Wells
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Cody Bellinger
4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
5. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
6. LF Jasson Domínguez
7. DH Ben Rice
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 3B Oswaldo Cabrera

Bellinger’s swing is tailor-made for Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch, though the lineup drops off quite a bit after him, and even more after Chisholm. Goldschmidt is 37 and last year’s issues with fastballs point to an aging hitter. Domínguez, Rice, Volpe, Cabrera … who knows? Full of potential, all of them, but the Yankees need production, not potential.

After losing Soto, the Yankees pivoted to run prevention and improved their rotation (Fried), bullpen (Devin Williams), and defense (Bellinger and Goldschmidt). The risk with building around run prevention team is you’re vulnerable to pitcher injuries, and now Cole and Gil are hurt. The offense is not as imposing as last year without Soto. Regardless, the Yankees need their bats need to give their arms as much support as possible.

4. Big chance for a young arm

The Yankees have not yet announced who will replace Cole in the rotation — Opening Day is still more than two weeks away, they don’t have to rush into anything — though Warren is the odds-on favorite. He is New York’s most MLB-ready pitching prospect. Last year’s 10.32 ERA in 22 2/3 innings was ugly, but Warren’s not the first rookie to struggle in his first taste of the big leagues.

Warren, 25, has had a great spring while showcasing an improved changeup and a revived curveball as he looks for a way to keep lefties in check. Baseball America ranked Warren the Yankees’ eighth-best prospect entering 2025, and said he “fits as a classic innings-eater at the back of a rotation.”

Gil beat out Warren for a rotation spot when Cole got hurt last spring and he did exactly what you hope a rookie will do when he steps in for an injured veteran. He had a fantastic season and won Rookie of the Year. Cole’s injury opened the door for Gil last year. Now another Cole injury has opened the door for Warren. This is his chance to establish himself as an MLB starter.

5. The Yankees could test the free agency and trade markets

The timing of Cole’s injury really could not be worse for the Yankees. Tommy John surgery comes with a 14-18 month rehab these days, meaning he will miss the start of 2026. One setback and there’s a chance he misses 2026 as well. Furthermore, March is not a great time to need pitching. Free agency has been picked clean and few teams are willing to trade arms in spring training.

Here’s our look at the free agent and trade options available to the Yankees. Veteran innings guy Kyle Gibson is best available on the free agent market. Big names like Sandy Alcantara and Dylan Cease may be available in trades, but, if they are, there will be bidding wars, and the Yankees do not have a great farm system. They may not have the prospects to complete a significant trade.

In all likelihood the Yankees will go into the season with what they have, and GM Brian Cashman will keep his ear to the ground for potential trades during the season. That’s an unsatisfying answer, I know, but that is the reality this time of year. Decent pitching is hard to find, let alone impact pitching. The Yankees will see what’s out there. Chances are, it ain’t much.

Entering spring training, the case could be made the Yankees were the best team in the American League even after losing Soto. That probably isn’t the case after the Cole, Gil, and Stanton injuries. Whatever margin of error they had has been exhausted, and Opening Day is still two weeks away. Every team deals with injuries. Few get hit as hard in spring training as the Yankees have.

With every new Yankees injury, the more the AL East door opens for the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. It’s simple math. Baseball is a zero sum game, there are only so many wins to go around, and every win you subtract from New York’s roster via injury is a win available to the O’s and Red Sox. At minimum, the injuries drag the Yankees further down the standings.

The Orioles and Red Sox aren’t healthy either, it should be noted. The O’s will be without Kyle Bradish (elbow), Andrew Kittredge (knee), and Grayson Rodriguez (elbow) to start the season. The Red Sox won’t have Wilyer Abreu (willness), Brayan Bello (shoulder), and Kutter Crawford (knee). Tough injuries, all of them, but not quite the same as losing Cole.

The difference between Cole and his replacement could be on the order of 4-5 wins and that is plenty enough to swing the AL East race. It might even be enough to knock the Yankees out of the postseason, though three wild-card spots and a watered-down AL work in their favor. Point is, the AL East looks to be much tighter and more competitive than it was a few weeks ago.

7. Cole’s Hall of Fame chances take a hit

Looking further down the line, the injury will cut into Cole’s Hall of Fame case. He is 47 wins short of 200 and 749 strikeouts short of 3,000, two milestones that would strengthen his case, and now he’ll miss an entire season and part of another. Add in the time lost to the pandemic in 2020, and Cole’s career totals will not be as impressive as they could have been had he stayed healthy.

Starting pitchers are already held to a ridiculously high standard during the Hall of Fame voting process, a standard that was set decades ago. Voters have been slow to adjust even though teams ask less of their starters with each passing year. Cole is certainly one of the top starters of this generation, but he’s not going to get to 300 wins, and now he might not reach 3,000 strikeouts either.

Again, this is something to think about further down the road. Cole’s contract runs through 2028, then there’s the five-year waiting period before joining the Hall of Fame ballot. Cole’s a decade away from Hall of Fame eligibility, give or take, and who knows what the voting body will look like then? The injury certainly won’t help his case though. He has less time to strengthen his case now.