What not long ago looked like a pronounced team strength in the Bronx — the depth and quality of the New York Yankees’ rotation — is fast entering “liability” territory because of injury concerns. Such is spring, such is pitching, and such is baseball.
Already, the defending American League champs are without last year’s AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, who’s out until at least late May/early June with a lat strain. More recently, ace Gerrit Cole went for an MRI on his pitching elbow after feeling discomfort following a Grapefruit League start in which he struggled badly. Cole, whose start to last season was delayed until June 19 because of a nerve issue in his elbow, said he was “concerned” about what the full range of opinions on the MRI results would tell him. The expectation now is that Cole will miss time, maybe a lot of it.
Assuming Cole is on ice to start the 2025 regular season, here’s how the Yankees’ rotation might look, at least as things stand now:
- LHP Max Fried
- LHP Carlos Rodón
- RHP Marcus Stroman
- RHP Clarke Schmidt
- RHP Will Warren
The offseason addition of Fried, a truly outstanding starting pitcher when healthy, was a canny one, but the loss of Gil and the presumed loss of Cole mean more work may need to be done, even at this late hour. So what’s out there?
Internally, the Yankees’ options are limited. As you see above, the 25-year-old Warren, one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects, is already penciled in thanks to the rotation hits already taken. Elsewhere, JT Brubaker is on the injured list with fractured ribs. Veteran Carlos Carrasco, who soon turns 38, is in camp on an NRI and will start on Sunday. January waiver claim Allan Winans, also an NRI, will start Saturday. Those aren’t exactly inspiring options for a team competing in the brutal AL East.
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If the Yankees lack confidence in their reinforcements, then they’ll need to turn to external solutions. Given that we’re into March, free-agent options are quite thin. The trade market, though, has more to offer. Let’s quickly explore all of those possibilities should the Yankees get bad news on Cole and decide they need to make a move.
Free agents
To repeat, the free-agent market, as opening day nears, has been thoroughly picked over. Of our top 50 free agents of the 2024-25 class, just two remain unsigned — David Robertson, a reliever, and J.D. Martinez, a DH. Going off list, starting pitchers looking for work include 37-year-old Kyle Gibson (4.24 ERA/4.42 FIP in 169 2/3 innings for the Cardinals last season), 37-year-old Lance Lynn (3.84 ERA/4.31 FIP in 117 1/3 innings for the Cardinals last season), 33-year-old lefty Marco Gonzales (4.54 ERA/4.71 FIP in seven starts for the Pirates last season), and 32-year-old Spencer Turnbull (2.65 ERA/3.85 FIP in seven starts and 10 relief appearances for the Phillies last season). Suffice it to say, those are not exactly inspiring options, and the Yankees would probably turn to this withered crop only if Cole’s absence is of the short- to mid-term variety.
Potential trade targets
If the Yankees get worse news on Cole, then perhaps it’s time to consider swinging big on the trade market. Here, then, is a partial listing of impact rotation arms that might be available in swap.
The Padres are in cost-cutting mode and may be looking to move Cease and his $13.25 million salary as he heads into his walk year. The 29-year-old right-hander is coming off a 2024 campaign in which he struck out 224 batters in 189 ⅓ innings, put up a 3.10 FIP, and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young balloting. That’s not an aberration, as Cease has topped 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and amassed a WAR of 16.0 over that same span.
The Marlins, deep into yet another teardown, seem inclined to move Alcantara at some point. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of 2024, but he’s looked dominant thus far in spring training:
He’s also not far removed from a stellar 2022 campaign in which he put up a WAR of 8.0 in 228 2/3 innings and was the unanimous choice for NL Cy Young honors. Alcantara still hasn’t turned 30, and he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season. Assuming his recovery continues to go as hoped, he’s a true ace.
Old friend alert. The Padres acquired King from these same Yankees as part of the December 2023 Soto blockbuster. King fared remarkably well in his first season as a full-time starter last year. In 173 ⅔ frames, he put up 2.95 ERA/3.33 FIP with 201 strikeouts and earned a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young vote. Like Cease, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the upcoming season. Also like Cease, his availability assumes the Padres are still looking to shed payroll.
A somewhat more modest target might be Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde. Fedde, who turns 32 on Tuesday, rebuilt his career during a 2023 stint in Korea. He returned stateside to the White Sox last season, and before and after his deadline trade to St. Louis, worked 177 ⅓ combined innings with a 126 ERA+, a 3.86 FIP, and a WAR of 5.6. Also appealing is the fact that Fedde is owed just $7.5 million for the upcoming season in advance of his return to free agency. That price tag would probably be appealing to Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner, who remains unwilling to use the full power of his club’s vast resources.
The Yanks’ hope, of course, is that the worst-case Cole scenarios are not realized and that drastic action won’t be necessary. That, though, may prove wistful, and if Cole is indeed lost for a significant amount of time, then GM Brian Cashman may need to swing big on the trade market to give his club the best chance of getting back to the World Series in 2025.
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