The first of nine events outside of the United States in the PGA Tour season will begin on Thursday south of the border. The 2025 Mexico Open will take place at Vidanta Vallarta, and low scores will be expected as the three previous Mexico Open winners at this course averaged 20-under-par. Jake Knapp won his first career PGA Tour event at the Mexico Open in 2024 as a 40-1 longshot. With another win at Vidanta Vallarta this week, Knapp will become the first PGA Tour golfer to successfully defend his title at the Mexico Open. Therefore, your golf betting strategy should certainly consider the 2025 Mexico Open longshots amongst the 77-player field.
C.T. Pan (50-1) and Justin Lower (55-1) both qualify as such, even after impressive showings last year. They tied for third place a year ago, but there are still over 15 golfers with shorter 2025 Mexico Open odds. Among those is the favorite, Akshay Bhatia (14-1), while Patrick Rodgers (25-1) is coming off a third-place finish a week ago and has nothing but top-10s in three starts at Vidanta. Before locking in your 2025 Mexico Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics.
Now that the 2025 Mexico Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard. Here are three Mexico Open sleepers to target:
Stephan Jaeger (30-1)
The German has had a solid start to the 2025 PGA Tour season, highlighted by a third-place finish at the Sony Open in which he shot no worse than 3-under-par in every round, finishing at 15-under. Speaking of third place, that’s precisely where Jaeger ended up on the leaderboard the last time he took on Vidanta Vallarta at last year’s Mexico Open. He’s never had a bad showing at the course in his three starts, placing in the top 20 each time, and he’s never truly had a bad round. Jaeger has shot par or better in all 12 of his rounds at the course, so he combines recent success on tour with a strong course history. Now, see the entire projected 2025 Mexico Open leaderboard from the model that nailed 13 majors.
Beau Hossler (33-1)
The former Texas Longhorn has played this course just once before, but it was an impressive showing as he notched a top-10 finish in 2023. He does his best work within the short game, ranking 13th on tour in strokes gained: putting and 31st in strokes gained: around-the-green. Even with those strengths, he doesn’t lack off the tee either, ranking 14th in total driving efficiency, which should certainly help this week as Vidanta Vallarta is one of the 10 longest courses on the 2025 PGA Tour schedule. Hossler has already recorded a pair of top-15 finishes on tour this season, and his experience in Mexico should only help him this week. Get Mexico Open best bets for a $1 million parlay from expert Eric Cohen, who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner in seven events over the last two seasons, right here.
Aaron Rai (33-1)
Rai has a pair of top-25s across three starts since the Mexico Open moved to Vidanta, but he should enter this week confident considering his past success at comparable courses. TPC Craig Ranch is one of those, as they are both driver-heavy courses with open layouts, and Rai shot 20-under-par for a fourth-place finish at that venue at last year’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson. His steadiness with his putter should also help on the sticky Paspalum greens as Rai ranks among the top 20 percent of the tour in both total putting and overall putting average. His first PGA Tour win came last August, and he’s a Mexico Open longshot that shouldn’t be overlooked with PGA bets. Get Mexico Open One and Done picks from the expert whose top One and Done pick last week at the Genesis, Ludvig Aberg, won the tournament and the $3.6 million winner’s share, here.
Full Mexico Open 2025 picks
You’ve seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Mexico Open leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Akshay Bhatia, Patrick Rodgers, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks: Visit SportsLine now to see golf insider Eric Cohen’s best bets for a 2025 Mexico Open $1 million dollar parlay, all from the expert who has predicted seven outright tournament winners over the last two years.
2025 Mexico Open odds, field, golfers
See the full 2025 Mexico Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Akshay Bhatia +1400
Rasmus Hojgaard +2000
Samuel Stevens +2200
Kurt Kitayama +2200
Michael Kim +2500
Patrick Rodgers +2500
Harry Hall +2800
Taylor Moore +3000
Stephan Jaeger +3000
Aaron Rai +3300
Beau Hossler +3300
Ben Griffin +3500
Niklas Norgaard +4000
Kevin Yu +4000
Alex Smalley +4500
Jake Knapp +4500
Thorbjorn Olesen +4500
C.T. Pan +5000
Ryan Fox +5500
Justin Lower +5500
Matt Wallace +5500
Nicolai Hojgaard +5500
Michael Thorbjornsen +5500
Greyson Sigg +6000
Adam Svensson +6000
Erik Van Rooyen +6500
Jesper Svensson +6500
Mac Meissner +6500
Patrick Fishburn +6500
Carson Young +6500
Kevin Roy +6500
Charley Hoffman +7000
Ryan Gerard +7000
Aldrich Potgieter +7500
Jacob Bridgeman +7500
Victor Perez +7500
Chan Kim +7500
Andrew Putnam +7500
Ben Silverman +8000
Sam Ryder +8000
Rico Hoey +8000
Antoine Rozner +9000
Matthias Schmid +9000
Chris Gotterup +9000
Lanto Griffin +9000
Joe Highsmith +9000
Trey Mullinax +9000
Frankie Capan +9000
Kristoffer Ventura +10000
Ricky Castillo +10000
Chandler Phillips +10000
Alejandro Tosti +10000
Jackson Suber +10000
Vince Whaley +10000
Emiliano Grillo +11000
Quade Cummins +11000
Matt Mccarty +11000
Vincent Norrman +11000
Takumi Kanaya +11000
Luke List +12000
Thriston Lawrence +12000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +12000
Max Mcgreevy +12000
Joel Dahmen +12000
Karl Vilips +12000
Hayden Springer +12000
Matteo Manassero +12000
Ben Kohles +15000
Ryo Hisatsune +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Brian Campbell +15000
Ben Martin +15000
Henrik Norlander +15000
Jeremy Paul +15000
Isaiah Salinda +15000
Rikuya Hoshino +15000
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