Has the Lions’ Super Bowl window closed? What’s next for Detroit after Jared Goff’s struggles in playoff upset

Just last offseason, the Detroit Lions had legitimate reasons to hope that a Super Bowl run could come in their 2024 campaign. 

They were fresh off a narrow 34-31 NFC championship game defeat against the San Francisco 49ers, and they returned their entire coaching staff plus a core of players who had experienced the bright lights of the playoffs together.

Now, it will be much more difficult for the Lions to maintain that same level of hope entering the 2025 season after their latest postseason collapse, a 45-31 NFC divisional round home loss against the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. 

Detroit became the fifth team in NFL playoff history to total at least 300 passing yards and at least 200 rushing yards in a playoff game, per CBS Sports Research, but the Lions were the first to lose such a game because they were the first to lose the turnover battle, which they did spectacularly. Detroit committed five turnovers, four by quarterback Jared Goff (three interceptions and a lost fumble) and an interception by wide receiver Jameson Williams on a trick play. The Lions are now the first team to lose in back-to-back postseasons while scoring 30-plus points. 

300 pass yards and 200 rush yards in a playoff game (NFL history)

The unfortunate part of their collapse Saturday is that the path was clear for them to win the Super Bowl in the 2024 season after a 15-2 regular season that set them up as the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history. With home field advantage and the Super Bowl being played in New Orleans, Detroit wouldn’t have had to play a game outdoors this postseason. 

The Lions’ 68 offensive touchdowns in the regular season were the second most in a single season ever, trailing only the 2013 Denver Broncos’ 71 in Hall of Famer Peyton Manning’s record-setting, NFL MVP campaign. They were the second team all-time with more than 35 passing touchdowns and more than 25 rushing touchdowns in a season, along with the 2000 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams. The Lions were also the first team in NFL history with two running backs (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) and two wide receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams) to all have over 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season, per CBS Sports Research. 

Now that all of that is for naught, it’s worth asking the following question: has the Lions’ Super Bowl window closed? Let’s go through a few factors for and against to come up with a determination.

Lions likely starting over with new coordinators

A season ago, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson notoriously pulled out of the running for the Washington Commanders’ head-coaching vacancy despite the franchise having the No. 2 overall pick in a strong quarterback draft and plenty of cap space in 2024. Johnson likely won’t be turning down the chance to be a head coach again this offseason after being interviewed by the Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. His Lions’ offenses have averaged 29.0 points per game since he became Detroit’s OC, the most in the NFL in that span. The 33.2 points per game the team averaged in 2024 led the league and was the most in a season in franchise history.

Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will also likely be an NFL head coach elsewhere in 2025 after interviewing for openings with the Bears, Jaguars, Raiders, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. The Lions defense’s points per game allowed figure decreased while their takeaways figure increased in each season Glenn has been the DC since 2021. Detroit’s 20.1 points per game allowed this season were the seventh-fewest in the NFL and the fewest for the Lions since 2014 when they surrendered just 17.6 points per game. The Lions’ 24 takeaways were tied for the ninth-most in the NFL and the most in a season for Detroit since 2017 when the team racked up 32 takeaways. 

Head coach Dan Campbell will need to ace these coordinator hires like he did with Johnson and Glenn. Otherwise, the team could take another step back in 2025.

The Jared Goff conundrum 

Lions quarterback Jared Goff had an excellent 2024 regular season after signing a four-year, $212 million contract extension with Detroit last offseason. His 37 passing touchdowns were the fourth-most in the NFL in 2024 and the second-most in a single season in Lions history, trailing only Matthew Stafford’s 41 touchdown passes back in 2011. Goff is only the third quarterback in league history to win at least 13 games in a season for multiple franchises, joining Tom Brady (New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos). 

However, the Lions have now run into the reason the Rams were willing to trade Goff and three draft picks (a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 first-round pick and a 2023 first-round pick) in order for them to acquire Stafford. There’s a ceiling on what Goff can accomplish in the postseason because of his arm talent and mobility. 

Los Angeles reached Super Bowl LIII in the 2018 NFL season with Goff as their starting quarterback while he was surrounded by the following supporting cast: head coach Sean McVay as his offensive play-caller, running back Todd Gurley still at the peak of his powers, wide receiver Brandin Cooks at the peak of his powers, wide receiver Robert Woods at the peak of his powers and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, that season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The Rams lost that Super Bowl, 13-3, the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever, with Goff completing just 50% of his passes (19 for 38) for 229 yards and an interception while also being sacked four times. 

Detroit has now experienced that same Goff ceiling in consecutive postseasons after seeing its offense get outscored, 27-7, in the second half of their NFC Championship Game defeat against the 49ers after having a 24-7 halftime lead — followed up by his four-turnover performance Saturday night. He’s great when surrounded by an elite cast of weapons and a top-tier play-caller, but when asked to elevate his team when the lights are brightest — whether that’s been in Detroit or Los Angeles — he’s faltered. Goff has played in 10 postseason games (nine starts) since 2017, and among 17 NFL quarterbacks with at least five playoff starts in that time, his 85.1 passer rating is the third-worst among that bunch. 

* Ranks among 17 NFL QBs with at least five playoff starts since Goff’s first playoff start in 2017

The problem for the Lions now is that Goff’s cap hits for the next four seasons with his extension kicking in are as follows: $32.6 million in 2025, $69.6 million in 2025, $54.6 million in 2027 and $61.6 million in 2028. Cutting Goff this offseason, something that won’t happen, would leave $96.4 million in dead money, and Detroit would lose $63.8 million in cap space. Trading Goff this offseason would leave $58.4 million in dead money, and the Lions would lose $25.8 million in cap space. He has $38 million in guaranteed salary across 2025 and 2026, so the team is likely tied to him for at least the next two seasons. 

The rest of the core pieces return

Gibbs, Montgomery, St. Brown, Williams and offensive tackle Penei Sewell will be back. Ditto for Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and many other defensive starters who made up the league’s third-youngest defense in 2024, per ESPN. Assuming health is tricky, but one would think it would have to be better in 2025 after Detroit had six defensive starters and 16 total players on injured reserve. 

Verdict

The Lions will be a postseason regular going forward, but with just $4.4 million in projected effective cap space in 2026 — the fourth-fewest in the NFL, per OverTheCap.com — the current window could close soon.