Heat’s longest losing streak under coach Erik Spoelstra has given Miami a difficult draft dilemma

The Miami Heat lost again on Monday, this time a 116-95 defeat at the hands of the the New York Knicks, who outscored the Heat by 23 in the second half. With that result, the Heat have now dropped eight games in a row, which is their longest losing streak under long-time coach Erik Spoelstra. 

“We’re all getting tested, including myself,” said Spoelstra, who has been in charge in Miami since 2008. “No one’s absolved from this. I’ve not come up with enough answers for this team. I have to do a better job. Our group has to do a better job.

“We have to put our feet into the dirt and hold our ground at this point. You always have a choice. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, necessarily. … But [you at least have] to make some strides. And you could see that in some of the losses over the last three weeks, where it felt like we were making strides. The last two games haven’t felt like that.”

The Heat have had some solid performances during this skid, including narrow defeats to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves. They even had a fourth-quarter lead on the Boston Celtics before the defending champions pulled away in the final minutes. 

But, as Spoelstra noted, the Heat have let go of the rope in their last two outings. Their 34-point loss the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday and their 21-point loss to the Knicks were two of their four largest margins of defeat this season. 

Everyone knew the Heat would be worse after trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors in the culmination of a drawn-out saga, but no one expected it would be this bad. After all, Butler had only played 25 games with them this season and on the night of the deal they beat the Philadelphia 76ers to move to 25-24. Plus, they’ve always been able to find a way to cobble things together. 

But not this season. They’re 4-15 since the Butler trade. Only the openly tanking Sixers and Utah Jazz have been worse in that stretch. 

All of this losing has put the Heat in an interesting spot. They’ve dropped to 10th place in the Eastern Conference, but are still 5.5 games up on the 11th-place Toronto Raptors, so they’re going to make the Play-In Tournament. Their 2025 first-round pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but is protected 1-14 this year before becoming unprotected in 2026. 

Tanking the rest of the way and getting bounced from the Play-In Tournament would ensure they keep their pick this year and can add another lottery talent to the roster. That would also mean the Thunder are getting their 2026 first no matter what. If Pat Riley is confident he can reshape the roster this summer and get the Heat back in the mix in the Eastern Conference next season, that would be no big deal. But if not, or if injuries arise, there’s a very real path where the Heat have to hand over a top-10 or even a top-five pick to the Thunder.

The less risky path for the Heat, which is easier said than done, would be to make the playoffs this season via the Play-In Tournament. In that scenario, they’d give the Thunder their first rounder this year, which would be in the 15-18 range, but regain control over their 2026 first. The fact that they own the Warriors’ 2025 first (protected 1-10) would help offset losing their own 2025 pick. 

This isn’t a simple either/or where the Heat get to make a decision, because they’re dependent on the outcome of games and the East Play-In field isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. But if it were, it would be interesting to know which choice the Heat’s front office would make.