January chugs along and that can mean only one thing around these parts: it’s time to rank minor-league prospects. Every team across the majors is selling hope to their fans: some are selling it in a more immediate fashion, in the form of active offseasons full of free-agent signings and trade acquisitions. Others, meanwhile, are selling it in the personage of prospects who could make the difference over the coming years.
CBS Sports is underway examining the top three prospects in each organization. Our definition of “prospect” is simple: does that player have rookie eligibility remaining for the 2025 season? If so, they’re a prospect; if not, that’s probably why your favorite young player is absent from the proceedings.
As always, these lists are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, player development specialists, and other talent evaluators around the industry. There’s a fair amount of firsthand evaluation, statistical analysis, and historical research mixed in, too. Plus a heaping of personal bias — we all have certain traits and profiles that we prefer over others, there’s no sense pretending otherwise.
Keep in mind that there’s no one right answer with these sorts of things. Besides, these are merely our opinions, meaning they have no actual bearing on the future. We already published our ranking of the top 25 prospects in all of the minors.
With all that out of the way, let’s get to ranking the top three prospects in the Houston Astros system.
The short hook: Promising corner bat, but which corner?
Smith ascended from a so-so first season at Florida State to being made the 14th pick in the draft thanks to a tweaked swing that allowed him to greatly reduce his strikeout rate. He’s now capable of contributing in each of the triple-slash categories, with his above-average strength in particular giving him middle-of-the-order potential. (To wit, none of his seven professional home runs were total pull jobs; they were all hit to left-center, center, or right field.) Questions remain about his long-term defensive home. Evaluators have expressed the belief he could slide from third base to a different corner in due time. The Astros, who obtained Smith in the Kyle Tucker trade, have stated they intend to crosstrain him at each corner position as a means of improving his and their optionality alike. MLB ETA: Summer 2025
The short hook: Dynamic center fielder with power
Melton is an athletic center fielder with an intriguing left-handed bat. His exit velocity last season peaked at 113.6 mph, putting him in the same neighborhood as Bryce Harper and Matt Olson, among other notable big-league sluggers. Melton certainly has the strength to leave the park to all fields (seven of his 15 home runs went out to left or left-center field), but in the near term his power might play more in the form of doubles; that’s because he had an average launch angle in the single digits in Triple-A, along with a ground-ball percentage over 50%. Melton’s offensive capacity could be hampered by a swing-happy approach that contains plenty of swing-and-miss, too. On the bright side, he should be able to claw back value on the basepaths, where he successfully swiped 30 bases during the 2024 season. There are some intriguing potential outcomes here if Melton can further optimize his swing plane and gameplan. MLB ETA: Summer 2025
The short hook: Dynamic infielder with power
Matthews had an interesting season, jetting all the way to Triple-A just about a year after being selected 28th overall. He notched 15 home runs and 32 stolen bases across 79 games, all the while striking out in more than 31% of his trips to the plate. The industry is more forgiving of strikeouts now than at any other point in history, but Matthews will test that tolerance; only one qualified MLB batter, Zack Gelof, struck out more frequently. At the same time, Matthews would appear to have one major point working in his favor: his employer. His ability to pull fly balls to left field should come in handy in Houston, where he could become fond of the Crawford Boxes. Of course, Matthews will still have to make enough contact for that possibility to materialize. For now, he’s someone to keep tabs on. MLB ETA: Summer 2025
Read the full article here
