The final Monday Night Football game in 2024 is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game as the Detroit Lions (13-2), now temporarily in second place in the NFC North, look for a little payback for that crushing postseason loss when they visit the San Francisco 49ers (6-9), who have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Lions are -3.5 with a total of 50.5 that is the highest of Week 17. The weather looks cold but otherwise shouldn’t be an issue in Santa Clara.
Back in September, I personally thought these teams would meet in this season’s NFC title game again, and Detroit may well get back there as it tries to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history — the only NFC team never to get there. With how things worked out on Sunday, this game actually doesn’t matter for the Lions. As long as they beat visiting Minnesota in Week 18, they will be NFC North champions and the conference’s top seed. The only potential implication could be if the Lions lose to the 49ers, as a tie against the Vikings would then push Detroit to the No. 5 seed.
But to give you an idea of where things stand, per the SportsLine Projection Model entering Week 17, Detroit had a 70.7% shot (equates to -241) at getting that No. 1 spot (included the possibility of Minnesota losing Sunday and the Lions clinching with a win here), 31.4% (+218) of winning the NFC and 15.1% (+562) to win the Super Bowl. At the books, the Lions are +170 favorites in the NFC and +400 second favorites for the Super Bowl behind Kansas City (+360).
Should Detroit win here, the above numbers above would improve to 81.1%, 32.7% and 16.2%, respectively. If it lost, they would fall to 65.4%, 29.3% and 14.2%. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but that this season’s Super Bowl is in a dome (New Orleans) would sure seem to benefit the indoor Lions, and I frankly don’t see any NFC team winning at Ford Field — even if both their losses came at home — so I think they do get there if they get home-field advantage.
The 49ers are one of the NFC’s biggest disappointments after reaching at least the NFC Championship Game in each of the past three seasons, but injuries played a major role in that. Is their title window closed? I wouldn’t go quite that far, but it’s going to get much tougher going forward because quarterback Brock Purdy is likely to join the $50 million per season QB salary club this offseason, which is going to mean some other talented players will not be retained or will be released due to salary cap constraints.
We’ll take you through every aspect of the Lions-49ers game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including sportsbook promos and the best odds, along with SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.
Get updated lines and picks on SportsLine’s game forecast page for this matchup.
Betting on MNF: Lions vs. 49ers
We were treated to one of the greatest NFC Championship Games in history back on Jan. 28 at Levi’s Stadium, as it looked like Detroit was headed to its first Super Bowl with a 24-7 lead in the third quarter. However, thanks in part to a bit of a fluke 51-yard catch from receiver Brandon Aiyuk — who is now out injured this season — the Niners rallied for the 34-31 victory. It was only the fourth comeback ever from a 17-point or larger deficit in a conference title game.
Detroit coach Dan Campbell is one of the most aggressive offensive minds in the NFL in terms of going for it on fourth down, but that backfired on him in that game as the Lions failed twice on fourth down when they were in field-goal range. Campbell bypassed a chance at a game-tying field goal on fourth-and-3 from the Niners’ 30-yard line midway through the fourth quarter and Detroit failed to convert. The Niners then drove for an insurance touchdown. Including a total of three playoff games, the 49ers lead the series 40-28-1 and have just one loss in the past 13 (in 2012). The Lions are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, including playoffs.
Best betting odds and lines for Lions vs. 49ers on MNF
|
Lions |
-194 (FanDuel) |
-3.5 (-110, multiple) |
Over 50.5 (-110, multiple) |
|
49ers |
+175 (Caesars) |
+3.5 (-110, multiple) |
Under 50.5 (-110, multiple) |
Expert picks for Lions vs. 49ers on MNF
The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting the final score to land Over the consensus total of of 50.5, but subscribers can see which side of the Lions-49ers spread is the best value according to the model at SportsLine or on the CBS Sports app. Expert Micah Roberts is on a 27-6 roll (+2038) on 49ers picks, and he’s leaning Under. He also shared his Lions-49ers spread pick at SportsLine.
Other SportsLine experts have also weighed in on several props for the game. Larry Hartstein, up +1477.5 on NFL player props this season, points out how the Lions have been allowing a lot of rushing yards to quarterbacks. Early Edge host Sia Nejad (+1317 on props) believes this rookie will shine. Those picks and more are available for SportsLine members on the website or the CBS Sports app.
Sportsbook betting promos for Lions vs. 49ers on MNF
Those looking to bet Monday night’s game may want to consider doing so with the current DraftKings Sportsbook promotion. New users at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins.
Check out more welcome promotions from key sportsbooks below.
What to know before betting Lions vs. 49ers
Detroit Lions
Injuries
Montgomery missed Week 16 and won’t apparently play in Week 18 but hopes to make it back for the playoffs — getting that first-round bye would help his cause.
Trends
Detroit is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games, 12-4 ATS in its past 16 against the NFC and 4-1 ATS in the past five vs. the NFC West. It has covered the first-half spread in 16 of the past 21 but only covered the fourth-quarter number in seven of the previous 19. The Over is 8-4 in the Lions’ past 12 and 5-1 in their past six December games. The third-quarter Over is 15-4 in their past 19 overall.
San Francisco 49ers
Injuries
Banks and Greenlaw were hurt in Week 16 and done for the year. After finally returning from an injury suffered in the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, Greenlaw only played in the past two games before a different injury ended his season.
Trends
San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games, 4-11 ATS in the past 15 at home and 1-4 ATS in the previous five against the NFC. It has covered the second-half spread in only three of the past 17. The Over is 4-2 in the Niners’ past six Monday home games but the Under is 10-5 in their past 15 overall as an underdog. The second-half Over is 12-5 in the team’s past 17 games.
Weather in Santa Clara
Clear skies. Low 38F. Winds light and variable. It was about 35 degrees warmer than that at kickoff when they met in last January’s NFC title game.
The matchup
Detroit’s 13 wins this season are a franchise record, and it has become the sixth team in NFL history to go from a 13-loss to a 13-win season in three or fewer years — the Lions were 3-13-1 in 2021. That was the first season in Detroit for Dan Campbell and QB Jared Goff. Campbell is a +650 second favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year behind Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell (-1000).
I thought maybe the winner of that award might be decided by which team wins Sunday night when these clubs meet in Detroit for the division title and NFC’s top seed – which the Lions have never clained. But apparently the books think the Coach of the Year race is over either way. O’Connell has done more with less.
Goff likely won’t win NFL MVP as he’s a +8000 fourth favorite, but he certainly will get some votes in a career season — his 33 TD passes are second in team history, eight shy of Matthew Stafford’s record (they of course were traded for one another a few years ago). Goff is rolling right now as in the Week 16 win in Chicago, he became the fourth quarterback in league history with at least 800 passing yards, eight pass TDs and no picks in a two-game span along with Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
Goff has joined Brady and Peyton Manning as the only QBs ever with 13-win seasons with multiple franchises, as he also led the Rams to 13 regular-season victories in 2018 when they lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Incidentally, the NFC North is only the second division in NFL history with two 13-win teams (Vikings) along with the 1999 AFC Central (Jaguars and Titans). No division has ever had two 14-win teams.
Goff’s top target is Pro Bowl receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a receiving TD in two straight games following a three-game drought and is +100 for one Monday. St. Brown has become the first player in franchise history with back-to-back seasons of at least 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 receiving scores. He had seven catches for 87 yards but didn’t score in the NFC title game.
Running back Jahmyr Gibbs has become only the fourth player in franchise history with at least 1,500 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs in a season. His usage rocketed way up in Week 16 with co-No. 1 tailback David Montgomery out injured. Gibbs needs two more TDs to tie the franchise record for scrimmage TDs in a season (17), set by Barry Sanders in 19991 and tied by Jamaal Williams in 2022. Gibbs is the overwhelming -280 favorite for an anytime TD here.
The offense might have to carry the Lions the rest of the way with six Week 1 defensive starters still on injured reserve. No team has ever been without that many Week 1 defensive starters in a playoff game. Detroit’s 10-4-1 ATS record is among the best in the NFL this year — it is 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in primetime games since 2022. The Lions are the only team this season to be unbeaten on the road (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS). The last team to finish unbeaten away was the 2020 Chiefs.
San Francisco will be only the third team in the past 15 years to finish with a losing record the season after a Super Bowl loss, along with the 2020 Niners and 2016 Panthers. We mentioned above that Brock Purdy is about to get paid this offseason – the former Mr. Irrelevant is making less than $1 million this year – but a quarterback is usually only as good as what’s around him.
After the Week 16 loss in Miami, Purdy is now only 10-10 career in games (including playoffs) when any of the fdo Pro Bowlers are out: Running back Christian McCaffrey, receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and left tackle Trent Williams. When those five all play, Purdy is 17-4. McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Williams are done for the season. Also note that Purdy has eight TD passes compared to 14 picks in his career when trailing or tied in the second half, including playoffs. His TD:INT split in all other scenarios is 59:12.
Samuel, who might be playing his final home game as a member of the Niners, snapped a career-long eight-game TD drought in the Dolphins loss and is +145 for one Monday. Normally, the banged-up Kittle might sit the final two meaningless games, but he’s only 33 yards shy of 1,000 receiving yards for the season and can become the fifth tight end in history with at least four such campaigns, joining Travis Kelce (seven), Rob Gronkowski (four), Jason Witten (four) and Tony Gonzalez (four). Kittle is set at O/U 68.5 yards.
San Francisco entered Week 17 sitting 15th in the league in scoring at 21.9 PPG and has scored more than 17 points just once in its past six games — its only win in that stretch was when it topped 17. It hasn’t helped that the team has a struggling kicker in Jake Moody, who is just 9-for-16 from at least 40 yards this season. His overall season percentage of 76.7 is among the worst.
The Niners are 0-2 SU and ATS in rematches from last postseason, losing 28-18 at home to Kansas City in Week 7 and falling 38-10 at Green Bay in Week 12. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games overall with that cover coming against a bad Bears team. But Detroit has lost 14 straight road games in this series (last win in 1975), the longest active NFL road losing streak by one team vs. another including playoffs.
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