Jimmy Butler is headed to the Golden State Warriors after one of the most tumultuous trade requests in recent NBA history. News of Butler’s desire to get traded first came in December and then culminated with three separate suspensions as the situation grew increasingly intolerable for the Heat. Butler, meanwhile, seemingly did everything in his power to push for a trade to the Phoenix Suns, even reportedly telling the Warriors over the weekend that he would not sign an extension in Golden State.
The Warriors, who have reportedly asked about several All-Stars, pivoted to Kevin Durant after that, but once Durant made it clear that he was not interested in returning to the Bay Area, the Warriors were forced to re-enter the trade market. Butler’s dreams of landing with the Suns, meanwhile, all but died once it became clear that Bradley Beal’s wouldn’t move with his outsized contract and no-trade clause. With both sides in need, Butler and the Warriors will link up not only for the remainder of this season, but with a two-year, $111 million contract extension, according to ESPN.
So, now that the deal is done, how did everyone do? Below are our grades for the Butler blockbuster:
Golden State Warriors: B+
So, let’s start with the basketball component of this. Despite Butler’s foibles, he is not only still a very good basketball player, but one that does things the Warriors badly need. He doesn’t just provide secondary scoring and ball-handling next to Stephen Curry, but he does so in ways that the Warriors currently lack. Golden State currently ranks 25th in the NBA in points in the paint. Butler still gets to the rim fairly frequently. The Warriors rank 28th in the NBA in free-throw rate. Butler has always gotten to the line and led the Heat in free-throw rate this season.
Obviously, Butler’s playoff track record is beyond reproach. He remains a very good and very versatile defender. The combination of him and Draymond Green unlocks virtually any scheme or matchup Steve Kerr might want to deploy. While no offense in the NBA is quite as pass- and movement-happy as Golden State’s, Miami’s egalitarian system is about as close as it gets. The learning curve here should not be too steep. The fit, in just about every way, makes sense.
And then there’s the matter of the cost. The protected first-round pick the Warriors gave up isn’t exactly nothing. If the draft were tomorrow, it would be in the lottery in the No. 14 slot. But you would assume that Butler will make the Warriors better, not worse, so that pick is likely to drop into the middle of the first round at least, and given how tight the Western Conference is, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it hits the low-20s.
However, it’s almost certain to convey this summer. That means a great deal when you consider the Stepien Rule, which forces teams to never go without a first-round pick in consecutive years (moving forward only). When teams trade a single, future pick, as the Heat have on a few occasions, it encumbers their ability to deal other picks because of the Stepien Rule implications of the existing pick that is gone. In Golden State’s case, however, the pick conveying in 2025 means that the Warriors should be free to deal all of their future picks — save the 2030 top-20 protected pick going to the Wizards — as soon as this offseason. They can take further steps to improve if they want, or simply hold onto those picks to rebuild down the line.
Andrew Wiggins is admittedly a loss, but Butler obviously fills in for him ably. Schroder has been bad for the Warriors on just about every front. An isolation scorer, he simply didn’t fit into Golden State’s motion offense. Lindy Waters is a fairly replaceable deep bench player.
Yes, there is going to be some disappointment out of fans in Golden State that Kevin Durant isn’t returning, but Kevin Durant would have cost a small fortune to acquire. All of the drama that Butler put the Heat through this season ensured that he was attainable at a fairly reasonable price. The Warriors didn’t have to gut their rotation to get him. They didn’t have to sacrifice their young players or years of draft flexibility either. They’re adding an All-Star without sacrificing anything too notable except the player who already played his position.
Is his two-year, $111 million extension a bit risky? Sure. It covers his age-36 and 37 seasons, and the Heat were skittish enough about his availability to let this situation spiral out of control in Miami. But the Warriors were always going to focus on the present with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in place, and as this season proved, putting depth around those two was never going to lead to high-level winning. Whether it was Butler or someone else, they were going to consolidate salary in the near future, and since Wiggins was already guaranteed money in those two years, it’s not as though Golden State is sacrificing possible cap space. Re-signing Jonathan Kuminga as a restricted free agent will likely vault the Warriors deep into the tax, but frankly, the Warriors are used to that by this point. That this is a two-year extension means they’ll be able to avoid the worst effects of the second apron, which kick in upon the third season a team spends above the line.
Butler could get hurt. He could decline. But basically every player in the NBA has to dodge those mines. The reality here is that Golden State improved substantially without making any meaningful sacrifices in the present or future. They’ve even aligned Butler’s new contract with the existing deals owed to Curry and Green. if Golden State wants to go all-in on the next three years and then lets it stars ride off into the sunset together after that and start a rebuild, it is free to do so. The Warriors still have a long way to go. They have a flawed roster and currently sit in the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. But this trade was their best chance at making any noise whatsoever this season, and they did well to complete it.
Miami Heat: D+
Man, those rumors about the Heat turning Butler into Durant that emerged Wednesday afternoon sure feel a month old now, right? The return here ultimately proved lackluster even by the pre-Durant rumor expectations. Think about what the Heat likely wanted to accomplish in a Butler deal.
For starters, making the playoffs this season means a great deal. Why? Because the Heat currently owe out their own first-round picks in 2025 (to the Thunder) and 2027 (to the Hornets). Those picks are currently lottery-protected. If the Heat miss the playoffs, however, those picks slide forward one year and become unprotected. The last thing the Heat want is to have two unprotected picks sitting out in the open while they attempt to rebuild their team for the post-Butler era.
This trade could help, but it’s not clear by how much. By nearly every statistical measure, Butler is not only a better player than Wiggins today, but has generated more value for the Heat than Wiggins has for the Warriors despite playing 18 fewer games. Butler has generated more Win Shares and a higher VORP despite his limited playing time. Even if the Heat expected Butler to be gone, he’s still mostly been helpful to them on the court when they’ve had him. Getting rid of the distraction is helpful, but it doesn’t solve their shot-creation woes beyond Tyler Herro. Right now, the Heat hold the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. There’s wiggle room in either direction, but going into a Play-In setting without Butler is dangerous.
Aside from reaching the playoffs this year, they also, like any team making a star trade, surely wanted to add draft capital and young talent. They got no young talent in this deal. Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski are still Warriors. They got one first-round pick. Depending on where it lands, it does have a chance to be meaningful. Remember, this is a Heat team that drafted both Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo at No. 13 overall. If the Warriors send the Heat, say, the No. 16 pick, there’s a good chance they do something notable with it. But it’s still a relatively low-upside selection even in a strong draft, and the Heat got no deep future picks from Golden State. Those, given the ages of Curry, Green and Butler, are the valuable ones. Getting even a single unprotected first-round pick a few years down the line could’ve changed this grade entirely. But unless the Warriors manage to draft in the top-10 in each of the next two years and have to give Miami its unprotected pick in 2027, the Heat didn’t get that upside.
Lastly, there’s the financial component of the deal. All of the reporting building up to the trade has suggested that one of Miami’s goals here was to retain cap flexibility going into the summer of 2026, when a number of stars including Luka Doncic are eligible for free agency. That fixation was part of why the Heat were reluctant to take on Bradley Beal. Well… Andrew Wiggins has a $30 million player option for the 2026-27 season. The Heat still have time to seek another trade, or maybe Wiggins opts out himself. But they didn’t exactly clean up their books here.
Beyond removing the distraction that Butler has created from their team, the Heat just didn’t accomplish all that much here. Wiggins might help them make the playoffs, but that’s no certainty, and even if he does, they’re still handing the Thunder a pick in the same range as the one they’re getting from the Warriors. Barring a catastrophe in Golden State, they’re not getting a future pick with all that much upside. Obviously, Butler made this situation as difficult for them as he reasonably could have, but it’s also worth wondering why the Heat didn’t act faster here. They knew they weren’t extending Butler as far back as the summer. Why let this drag out? Why not seriously consider a trade then?
The Heat know what they’re doing. We can trust this front office to make the most of the assets it got in this deal and to generally turn things around post-Butler. But they let the Butler situation spiral and ultimately failed to net a worthy return for even a diminished player of his caliber. There may not have been a better deal on the table, but that doesn’t make this is a good one.
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