The Seattle Mariners had a disappointing 2024 season, winning 85 games and falling one game short of a wild-card berth. They’ve now missed the postseason in back-to-back years after snapping their two-decade postseason drought in 2022. The disappointment continued into the offseason, when Seattle signed Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. That’s about it.
To be sure, the Mariners were rumored to be interested in a great many things over the winter. They explored the market for a big first-base bat, there were rumblings of a Luis Castillo blockbuster trade, and there was chatter about a reunion with Justin Turner. Turner finished last season with the Mariners and performed well, though he ultimately signed with the Chicago Cubs.
Earlier this week, Turner acknowledged he had interest in returning to Seattle, but he also said he did not want to be the only piece they added, and called the team out for their inactivity. Here’s what Turner told USA Today:
“The fact that they missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball,” former Mariners infielder Justin Turner told USA TODAY Sports, “just seems absurd to me.”
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“Honestly, as much as I wanted to be back there,” Turner said, “if I was the only piece they brought back in, I would be saying the same thing: What the hell are we doing? Are you trying?”
“There’s not going to a better time to go for it. So, I don’t know what they’re doing. I’m very confused. It’s a head-scratcher for me.”
When asked whether Turner was wrong, an unnamed Mariners player told the Seattle Times “not one bit” on Wednesday. Following the 2023 season, catcher Cal Raleigh called out team ownership and said the Mariners have “got to commit to winning.”
Seattle’s projected Opening Day payroll is $144.4 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That is up slightly from $137.5 million in 2023 and $139.6 million in 2024, but also below their 2017 Opening Day payroll ($154.3 million). The payroll increase is tied up mostly in arbitration raises to Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, and others. Payroll certainly didn’t rise because of free agent spending.
To be sure, uncertainty about the future of Root Sports has played a role in Seattle’s payroll holding steady. At the same time, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a similar boat with their local television revenue, yet they signed Corbin Burnes and their Opening Day payroll has gone from $90.6 million in 2022 to $116.2 million in 2023 to $163.5 million in 2024 to $179.9 million in 2025.
Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both put the Mariners’ postseason odds in the 57-58% range. They’re right on the postseason bubble and therefore every win they add to the roster has an enormous impact on their chances of playing in October. Spending a little more on a first or third baseman could equal a postseason revenue windfall, yet it didn’t happen.
The Mariners have arguably the best rotation in baseball, but pitcher health can be fleeting. Castillo, Gilbert, George Kirby, et al are healthy now, and we don’t know if that will be the case in 2026. Pitchers get hurt. It’s what they do. Like Turner said, the Mariners should be going all-in right now. Instead, it was a low-key offseason leading to likely another year on the postseason bubble.
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