For most great NBA teams that come together relatively organically, luck plays a premium role. It’s not a knock. Luck, as they say, is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. You have to do the hard work of putting yourself in good position.
Look at the 2024 champion Boston Celtics. The Philadelphia 76ers gave them Jayson Tatum so they could draft Markelle Fultz. Then Jrue Holiday fell into their lap as the fallout of the Damian Lillard trade. And then they won the title.
The Golden State Warriors got Stephen Curry because the Timberwolves drafted Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn, both point guards, with the two picks immediately preceding Curry’s No. 7 slot in the 2009 draft. Then they were able to sign Curry to a clearance-rack contract because they feared his right ankle was defective. He got the ankle fixed and immediately blew up, and then the Warriors were able to afford Kevin Durant because of Curry’s tiny contract. And then they became arguably the greatest team in history in 2017.
The Denver Nuggets lucked into Nikola Jokic in the second round. The Lakers lucked into LeBron because they play in Los Angeles, and then they got to play for the title in the bubble, where Anthony Davis shot like he has never even come close to shooting again in the friendly depth perceptions of a smaller gym.
The Toronto Raptors were waiting with a one-piece-short team when Kawhi Leonard fell out with the Spurs, and then they still needed probably the luckiest bounce(s) in history and a blown Durant Achilles tendon to win the first and only title in franchise history.
Again, all you can do is put yourself in a good position to strike with the right opportunity presents itself, and then cross your fingers. Which brings us to the New York Knicks, who have done exactly that over a remarkable reset that began with the final chapters of the previous front office regime run by Scott Perry and Steve Mills, who opened up longer-term possibilities with shorter-term commitments, and has ended, for all intents and purposes, with the trade for Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT is the quintessential missing piece to push good team over the hump of great.
In between, they’ve had their share of luck. Knicks fans would say it’s about time after striking out on so many home run swings over the years, but in this case, striking out was the luck. In 2019, they swung at Kyrie Irving and Durant and whiffed. Thank the basketball gods. In 2022, they would’ve been happy, even thrilled to give the Utah Jazz pretty much all the capital they’d spent years acquiring for Donovan Mitchell, but they luckily got outbid by the Cavaliers, who are now the middling playoff team the Knicks would have become with a tiny, defensively vulnerable Mitchell-Jalen Brunson backcourt.
Instead, they just got Brunson … on a $100 million deal that most people, or at least many people, thought was an overpay for a guy who had never been a No. 1 option and likely never would be. Absolutely nobody in good conscience would’ve gone on record saying they thought Brunson would become this good. Maybe an All-Star, but not an MVP-level player. If you end up with that kind of player on that kind of contract, you got lucky. An the Knicks made good use of those savings in building out the roots of this team.
The Brunson bargain continued this summer when he signed a four-year, $156.5 million extension that is not even 60% of the $269.1M he could’ve signed for next summer. He’s eventually going to get his money, having timed this little Robin Hood maneuver to end up a free agent after his 10th year of service in the summer of 2028, when he’ll be eligible for a five-year deal worth north of $400M.
But the lower salary number next season is key for the Knicks, because it keeps them below the dreaded second apron for another season on the clock that is ticking toward draft punishment. Without getting too far in the weeds of the CBA, once a team goes over the second apron it can only go over one more time in the next four years before its draft pick (seven years out from the first year the second apron was exceeded) drops to No. 30.
The Towns contract, combined with the Mikal Bridges extension, for which he’ll be eligible in the summer of 2026, is eventually going to take the Knicks over the second apron, but that’s two years from now, which, in essence, gives the Knicks a four-year window with this roster, rather than three if Brunson’s money was set to ballon next year, before having to duck the second apron again.
Four years in the NBA is an eternity, and that’s what makes this Towns acquisition, at this specific moment, such a home run. The basketball fit is irrefutably perfect, but it also affords the Knicks the most precious of luxuries: time. They don’t have to win the whole thing next season. They might not ever win a championship with this group. If they don’t, that won’t make this decision to go all-in on Towns any less wise. It’s not that black and white. You need some luck in the roster-building phase, and then you need some more luck on the court, too. First, we’ll see if they can stay healthy. After that, there are a lot of other really good teams, too.
But they’ve given themselves a real chance with a core of players (Brunson, Towns, Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart) who are all between the ages of 27 and 29. Also, the time to move Julius Randle was now, before he becomes a free agent next summer and the Knicks would’ve been forced to overpay him or let him leave for nothing. The Wolves were also highly motivated to move off Towns for similar second-apron concerns. From every angle, the timing lines up.
If styles make fights then circumstances makes trades. Under different circumstances — say, like the set Carmelo Anthony inherited with an old Amar’e Stoudemire and an old Chauncey Billups and without the role-player support he needed to actually win because the Knicks gave a lot of it away in the trade to get Anthony in the first place — trading for Towns would’ve been a disaster. He is not the guy to be the guy.
But the Knicks have their guy. It’s Brunson. There is, part by design and part by good fortune, total clarity from both a hierarchal and positional standpoint. They have the superstar point guard, the three two-way wings in Anunoby, Bridges and Hart, and now the stretch-shooting center who can space the floor for all while being protected by probably the best perimeter-defensive trio in the league. Only the Celtics have grounds for an argument there.
And so, Towns will be free to do what he does best — pick and pop all night and shoot the hell out of the ball in an optimally spaced floor without the burden of having to carry an offense. He looked great in this role for the Timberwolves as their offensive operation turned over to Anthony Edwards. He played in two-big lineups with Rudy Gobert, which he can now do with Mitchell Robinson (unless he’s eventually traded, which is a possibility).
This is, quite simply, the perfect move at the perfect time for the Knicks — not because Towns is a savior, but because he doesn’t have to be. This is not a typical Hail Mary move by the Knicks. No, this is a new day. The Knicks are smart now!
Yes, they tried to go all-in with the wrong cards a couple times, but they lucked out and stayed in the game. Kept grinding. And now here they are, pushing all their chips into the middle with the hand to support such boldness. If they get beat, they get beat. But it’s the right move at the right time. There’s nothing to regret, no matter how it works out.
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