Ja Morant returned from a six-game absence on Saturday as the Memphis Grizzlies faced the Los Angeles Lakers. This raised conspiracy alarms around the league, with many speculating that Morant’s return was tied to the dismissal of former Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins. That was a major talking point among 29 fan bases. The 30th? Well, their minds were on a different topic.
For years now, Laker fans have sworn that injured players returned to face them at a disproportionate rate. Luka Dončić himself addressed the theory in early March. “I didn’t believe it before, but they say if somebody is out a long time, then they play against the Lakers,” Dončić said with a chuckle. “So I didn’t believe it at the time, but obviously it’s the Lakers, so I think that’s normal.”
Dončić’s acknowledgement played well with Lakers fans, but head coach JJ Redick took things a step further. He actually had his analytics department look into it, and much to the delight of those same fans, it turns out they might be right. “I think it’s like 86% of [opposing] payroll has been available to [play] us this year, which is by far No. 1 in the league,” Redick said before Saturday’s win over Memphis.
Now, there’s important context here. Redick provided only one number: a single-season percentage for one team. Without having the entire league’s percentage to compare against over a several-season sample, it’s hard to read too far into this conspiracy. Percentage of payroll available is also an imperfect, albeit useful, measure. That payroll can be divided among several players or represent one, single expensive one. Payroll is not an exact measure of value, either. Many of the best players in the NBA are still playing out cheap rookie deals. Other, pricier players aren’t living up to their deals. This is a data point, not a conclusion.
Still, it’s a compelling notion at least anecdotally. When Dončić addressed the theory in early March, he did so after a string of injured players returned against the Lakers in short succession. Frustrating to fans, yes, but hardly conclusive. Redick’s inquiry took it a step further, hardly providing a conclusive answer, but at least showing that this season, the Lakers have faced healthier opponents than the rest of the league. If there’s a silver lining here for the purple and gold, it’s that this information offers them a bit of game-planning clarity. If players tend to suit up against them more often, they can game-plan assuming any questionable players will take the floor.
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