Making sense of Gerrit Cole’s Tommy John surgery: chaos for Yankees, altered fantasy rankings

It seemed inevitable from the moment that the 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner complained about soreness on Thursday. Almost 12 months to the day after his first setback with his elbow, it was announced Monday that Gerrit Cole would require Tommy John surgery, knocking him out for 2025 and probably the start of the 2026 season. The injury leaves the Yankees rotation in shambles, what with 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil already ruled out for three months due to a lat strain. We’re just a couple of weeks removed from Marcus Stroman defiantly railing against opening the season in the pen. Well, he’s probably starting the third game of the season now.

WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE YANKEES ROTATION?

The Bombers still have two of the game’s highest-paid starters sitting atop their rotation in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. Fried, who landed an eight-year, $218 million deal in free agency, is plugging along as usual this spring, but Rodón was still searching for regular-season form in his second Grapefruit League start, as his velocity was down 1.5-2 mph from last season. Rodón’s ERA rose as 2024 went along, but so did his strikeout rate; he fanned 30% of the batters he faced after the All-Star break, compared to 24% in the first half. That seems like a good omen for a guy who still has four years and $108 million left on his six-year deal.

Clarke Schmidt rates as the Yankees’ No. 3 starter, but since he’s been dealing with back soreness, he’s slated to debut in the sixth game of the regular season. Schmidt was stellar when healthy last year, amassing a 2.85 ERA in his 16 starts. An injury-free campaign from him now seems imperative for the Yankees.

Stroman dealt with diminished velocity throughout last season, but he kept it together nicely for four months, amassing a 3.64 ERA through the end of July. He then stumbled to a 6.15 ERA the rest of the way, even though his peripherals were better down the stretch than they were the first four months. His ceiling is lower than ever with his strikeout and groundball rates eroding, but at least he’s durable and will keep the team in games.

Currently auditioning for the fifth spot are prospect Will Warren and 37-year-old Carlos Carrasco, who has a 6.18 ERA in 41 starts the last two years. Warren was a disappointment in Triple-A last year, but he appears to be an improved pitcher this spring. He’s thus far allowed one run and posted an 11/0 K/BB in eight innings.

WHAT ABOUT OUTSIDE UPGRADES?

Even though they’re surely encouraged by Warren’s development, the Yankees might look for some outside help, especially since it’s hardly a lock that their remaining starters will stay healthy. Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Spencer Turnbull remain available in free agency. Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins and Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres are among those potentially available in trade talks, though with free agency depleted, the Padres have less reason to move a starter than they did a few months ago. The Cardinals are open to parting with Erick Fedde or Steven Matz. Of course, they’d still love for the Yankees to take on Nolan Arenado as well.

WHAT HAS COLE’S INJURY DONE TO FANTASY RANKINGS?

In light of injuries to Cole and Seattle’s George Kirby, the top of the starting pitching rankings has changed some in recent days.

Cole was initially 14th in the Rotoworld SP rankings. Kirby, who is battling what is hopefully a moderate case of shoulder inflammation, has fallen from sixth into Cole’s old spot.

In terms of tiers, Skenes and Skubal are clearly in front of the second group, which had been four deep with Kirby slotting in behind Gilbert, Wheeler and deGrom. Snell, who will pitch less than most aces as part of the Dodgers’ planned six-man rotation, leads the third tier, which runs through Bibee. Cole had been near the top of the fourth tier, what with his obvious Cy Young talent but also the clear questions about the state of his elbow. Sliding into the top 20 in his place is Seattle’s Miller, though Tyler Glasnow, Justin Steele and Spencer Schwellenbach are all right behind.