At some point soon, maybe even this week, the San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller will join the offseason and make a move to improve his team. Maybe? Probably? Preller has a history of late offseason moves, like last February’s Jurickson Profar signing and March’s Dylan Cease trade. He needs to make another late offseason move now, because, to date, the Padres have been inactive.
Inactive is not hyperbole either. Preller and the Padres have added two players to their 40-man roster from outside the organization this offseason: Juan Nuñez, their Rule 5 Draft pick, and reliever Ron Marinaccio. Nuñez has never pitched above High Class-A and Marinaccio came over from the 121-loss Chicago White Sox in a cash trade this past weekend. Small moves, those were.
The Padres have not made a single major-league free-agent signing or traded for a major-league player despite having openings in left field, at catcher, at the back of the rotation, and on the bench. This is a team that won 93 games last year and was one win away from the NLCS, remember. There is every reason to think San Diego expects to contend in 2025. And yet, a quiet offseason.
More than anything, ownership infighting and clamping down on payroll is to blame for the lack of offseason activity. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates San Diego’s 2025 competitive balance tax payroll at $246.8 million, above the $241 million threshold and last year’s $227.8 million payroll. It has been assumed (though not confirmed) the Padres must shed money to make moves.
Cease and Luis Arraez, two players scheduled to become free agents after 2025, have been mentioned as trade candidates the last few weeks for that reason. This past weekend, another vital Padre saw his name pop up in trade rumors: Michael King, San Diego’s No. 1 starter last postseason. He is among the starting pitchers who “remain in play,” according to The Athletic.
King, 29, was the top piece the Padres acquired in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees last offseason. A stellar setup reliever most of his time in New York, King moved into the rotation late in 2023 and impressed. He was among the best pitchers in baseball in 2024, his first full season as an MLB starter, and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.
The Padres would surely love to keep King long-term, though, like Cease and Arraez, he is scheduled to become a free agent after the upcoming season. The two sides were unable to agree to a 2025 contract before the arbitration salary filing deadline earlier this month (King filed for $8.8 million, the team $7.325 million) and are likely headed to a hearing in the coming weeks.
The salary uncertainty hamstrings the Padres a bit, but, more than that, trading King would be a way to shed money and also bring back talent. Even one year of King is very valuable. He could net the Padres, say, a cheap left fielder and a starter with multiple years of control, something San Diego will need with Cease and King approaching free agency.
With that in mind, let’s rank the 30 MLB teams as potential landing spots for King. These rankings are based on how much the team needs a starter like King and how well they line up to make a trade with San Diego. Let’s get to it.
Don’t even bother
30. Miami Marlins
29. Chicago White Sox
28. Colorado Rockies
27. Los Angeles Angels
26. Washington Nationals
25. (Sacramento) Athletics
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
23. St. Louis Cardinals
King is a year away from free agency and it doesn’t make sense for teamss not expected to contend in 2025 to trade for him. The A’s have spent money this offseason and improved as a result, though they still face an uphill battle for a wild-card spot. The Pirates are pretty well set at the top of the rotation with Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, and Paul Skenes. They need offense more than anything. Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak admitted the team is entering a “reset” in October. Trading young players for a rental starter doesn’t fit a “reset,” though I would argue the NL Central is winnable enough that adding King could put St. Louis more firmly in the mix.
Contenders with full rotations
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
21. Philadelphia Phillies
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. New York Yankees
18. Seattle Mariners
There is no such thing as too much pitching, and King is the kind of pitcher who would make any rotation better, though these five clubs are set with starting pitchers. The Dodgers have added Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell, with Clayton Kershaw still likely on the way. The Phillies brought in Jesús Luzardo, the Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes, and the Yankees Max Fried. Squint your eyes and you could see the Mariners trading one of their starters for a young, controllable bat, then bringing in King to backfill innings. That’s a lot of moving parts though. The more things that need to happen for it to make sense, the less likely it is.
Small market contenders without a major rotation need
17. Kansas City Royals
16. Tampa Bay Rays
15. Milwaukee Brewers
14. Cleveland Guardians
Could these teams make it work? Absolutely. The Rays (Shane McClanahan) and Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) have rotation spots earmarked for pitchers who missed 2024 with injury. Kansas City is going to stretch Kris Bubic out as a starter and see whether he can have consistent success in that role. The Guardians will give Triston McKenzie another try, with Shane Bieber on the way back from Tommy John surgery at midseason. You needn’t try hard to see how adding King would help these teams. It would, however, require trading a significant package to get one year of a starter when the rotation is not their biggest need, and controllable young players are their lifeblood. Yes, I can see how King would make sense for these four. No, I don’t expect it to happen.
Bubble teams with a rotation need
13. Boston Red Sox
12. San Francisco Giants
11. Toronto Blue Jays
10. Texas Rangers
9. Cincinnati Reds
8. Minnesota Twins
Now we’re into the teams that not only have an opening for King in the rotation, but would also benefit greatly from adding him. These six teams did not make the playoffs in 2024 and are at a place now where every additional win they add to their roster would improve their postseason chances significantly. Going from, say, a projected 72-win team to a projected 76-win team doesn’t do much. But going from a projected 88-win team to a projected 92-win team, well, that changes your outlook considerably.
The Red Sox added Walker Buehler and Garrett Crochet this offseason and have a full rotation, though Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow would not be doing his job if he didn’t float something like Kutter Crawford and Vaughn Grissom for King. The Reds have a boatload of young pitching to offer the Padres (Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, Connor Phillips, etc.) and King could push them over the finish line in the wild-card race (or NL Central race?). The Blue Jays may lack the trade chips to get a King deal done, but they have to at least call and ask, right?
The best fits
7. Atlanta Braves
The Braves lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency, and have replaced them with no one. And sorry, Braves fans, but I would bet against Reynaldo López and Chris Sale combining for 313 ⅓ innings of 2.21 ERA ball again. Spencer Schwellenbach set a new career high by nearly 60 innings last year too. I know Spencer Strider is due back from UCL surgery in the first half, but gosh, there is a lot of downside risk in the rotation. King would up Atlanta’s margin of error in what figures to be a tight NL East race. Do the Padres have interest in Jarred Kelenic and one of Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, et al?
6. Houston Astros
At the moment, the priority seems to be finding a way to make an Alex Bregman reunion work, though the Astros should not ignore their rotation. GM Dana Brown recently acknowledged Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will not be ready for Opening Day as they continue their elbow surgery rehab (McCullers has not pitched since 2022), and Cristian Javier’s Tommy John surgery timeline puts him on track to return in August or September. Hayden Wesneski is penciled into the No. 5 rotation spot and there’s basically no major-league proven depth behind him. I’m not sure Houston has the pieces to win a trade bidding war, but clearly they could use a top-flight starter like King as they try to win another World Series title before the window on the Jose Altuve era fully closes.
5. San Diego Padres
The Padres need to add a starter, not subtract one, but if the payroll restrictions are for real, I struggle to see how Preller & Co. can adequately address their needs (of which there are many) without trading a key player for multiple pieces. Even if King wins his arbitration hearing, he will be almost $5.5 million cheaper than Cease in 2025, which interested trade partners will appreciate. If I were San Diego, I would try to find another way to lower payroll in 2025 (trade Cease and closer Robert Suarez?), then make an effort to sign King to a long-term extension. The Padres need a starter exactly like King. They also look to be short on ways to improve the team without dumping money. Trading King may be the least painful way to lower payroll and get back several impactful pieces.
4. Detroit Tigers
“Pitching chaos” is not something the Tigers and A.J. Hinch want to rely on for 162 games. You’re asking a lot — A LOT — of your pitchers to do that for even one month, let alone a full season. Detroit’s only rotation addition this offseason is Alex Cobb, who made five starts around injuries last year (postseason included). Top prospect Jackson Jobe is likely to have an innings restriction as well. The AL Central is so winnable. Adding King could be what separates the Tigers in the race. See how interested the Padres are in outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy and righty Matt Manning, and go from there.
3. New York Mets
POBO David Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to building pitching staff, though I can’t say Griffin Canning, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes as a starter is how I expected the Mets to fill out the rotation after signing Juan Soto. Add in Paul Blackburn’s spinal surgery and Kodai Senga’s season-long injury issues last year, and the Mets could benefit from adding more of a sure thing to their rotation. Also, the club has emphasized former Yankees players familiar with manager Carlos Mendoza the last 15 months or so, and King fits. The Mets are reportedly willing to eat money to move Starling Marte. Does a heavily subsidized Marte and Tylor Megill get the conversation started? You’ll never get Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask.
2. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs already made one significant trade for a star player one year away from free agency when they brought in Kyle Tucker. Why not make another? The Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea signings ostensibly make Javier Assad or Ben Brown expendable, and the Cubbies are loaded with outfielders. Kevin Alcántara, Alexander Canario, and Owen Caissie all have Triple-A experience and could appeal to the Padres. The NL Central is winnable and a wild-card spot is there for the taking. Going from Assad/Brown to King is exactly the kind of upgrade that could give the Cubs a leg up in the postseason race. They’ve already traded for one big-name rental player. Why stop there? A playoff berth is within reach.
1. Baltimore Orioles
With all due respect, Tomoyuki Sugano and late career Charlie Morton are not adequate replacements for Corbin Burnes. Not in a division race this tight and not when your young homegrown core is as ready to contend as it ever will be. Former No. 2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad will turn 26 in two weeks and he still does not have an everyday lineup spot. Packaging Kjerstad with a young starter like Chayce McDermott or Cade Povich to add King is the sort of go-for-it move Orioles fans have been craving for over a year now, and the kind of move that could separate the O’s from the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East. Baltimore traded for Burnes as a rental last offseason and he was outstanding. Now they should do it again with King.
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