Two weeks into the MLB season and the betting market for the National League Cy Young award has seen some movement, including one long shot worth taking before it’s too late and one favorite to dabble on.
National League Cy Young Favorite: Paul Skenes (+350)
The one bet I made in the preseason for NL Cy Young was Paul Skenes at +250 odds. After his disastrous opening day start against the Mets where he recorded 0.2 innings on 37 pitches with four hits and five earned runs allowed, everything has been up hill for Skenes.
Over the next two starts versus the Reds and Padres, Skenes posted a combined 11 1/3 innings, two earned runs, five hits allowed, 11 strikeouts to four walks, and most importantly, two wins. While his ERA is 5.25 through three starts, that will continue dropping and likely finish below 3.00 for the season after 1.96 and 1.97 his first two seasons.
At the current price of +350, I went back to the well on Skenes to win NL Cy Young because of the value, but if we’re talking value, time is running out for the best long shot in the market.
Pick: Paul Skenes to win NL Cy Young (1 unit)
National League Cy Young Long Shot: Mason Miller (+3500)
The best long shot on the board is the Padres’ Mason Miller. Just a week go, Miller was 150-to-1 to win the award and yesterday, he was 45-to-1 when I played him. Now, the best price is +3500 or 35-to-1, while some books have him at 20-to-1!
Miller is on a mission right now and no one is coming close to ending his current scoreless streak. Miller hasn’t allowed a run to score on him in 28 2/3 innings. It’s the longest streak in all of baseball and five innings short of the Padres’ franchise record held by Cla Meredith. It’s not just going scoreless, it’s how he’s doing it. Miller has faced 24 total hitters and 19 of them have struck out! Per MLB.com, that 79.2% strikeout rate is the highest by a pitcher in his first seven appearances of a season since at least 1900!
Of course, Miller isn’t a starter, he is a reliever/closer. The last reliever to win Cy Young was Eric Gagne in 2003. Gagne won by converting all 55 of his save opportunities for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is absolutely bonkers. Gagne finished with a 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 6.9 strikeouts to walk ratio over 82 1/3 innings pitched.
Miller is four-for-four on saves so far this season with a 0.00 ERA, 0.27 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts to one walk. Can Miller become the first reliever to win Cy Young since 2003? I think so. Although, knocking off Paul Skenes won’t be easy, but if you’re going to do it — do it by striking everyone out, setting franchise records for scoreless innings, and lead the MLB in saves and WHIP, which Miller could do.
Pick: Mason Miller to win NL Cy Young (1 unit)
MLB Futures Card
3 units: Pittsburgh Pirates Over 76.5 Wins (-115)
2 units: Detroit Tigers to win AL Central (+110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+550)
1 unit: Ronald Acuna Jr. to win NL MVP (+1000)
1 unit: Pittsburgh Pirates to win NL Central (+800)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+250)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+350)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+425)
1 unit: Mason Miller to win NL Cy Young (+3500)
0.5 unit: Konnor Griffin to win NL Rookie of the Year (+600)
0.5 unit: Bubba Chandler to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.25 units: James Wood to lead MLB in Home runs (+20000)
0.25 units: Detroit Tigers to have the most wins (+4500)
0.25 units: Philadelphia Phillies to win the World Series (+1600)
0.25 units: Atlanta Braves to win the World Series (+2000)
0.25 units: Detroit Tigers to win the World Series
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