Over the last week or so, I’ve completed my annual offseason prospect ranking lists and introduced this year’s crop of MLB breakout players. Today, it’s time to combine those pursuits into a different exercise: figuring out what prospects are in for big seasons.
Unlike with the MLB breakout players, where the focus is solely on that player beating expectations with their performance, the criteria with prospects is different. Specifically, I’m expecting these players (none of whom cracked their teams’ prospect list) to improve their stocks — be it through continued strong play, tweaks to their game, sustained health, or some combination thereof.
As always, this is more of an art than a science, and there are more compelling candidates than there are spots. Now, let’s get to it.
1. Franklin Arias, SS, Boston Red Sox
Arias, who turned 19 in November, hit .355/.471/.584 with 24 extra-base hits, 30 stolen bases, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 51 complex league games. He thereby earned a promotion to the Carolina League, where he hit 11% above the league-average line despite being 2.5 years younger than his average peer. That kind of age-adjusted performance will put you on the map.
Arias’ game is currently centered around contact, but there were some promising hints of future power. Specifically, two of his three home runs in the Carolina League were opposite-field shots. They weren’t mammoth blasts or anything, yet having the bat speed and strength to impact a ball so that it carries out over the far wall is still a notable achievement at this age and experience level.
Considering that Arias looks like a good bet to remain at shortstop for the long haul, every gain on the offensive end could raise his stock from future starting shortstop to future star.
2. Welbyn Francisca, SS, Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have made a habit of developing interesting switch-hitting infielders, from José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor to Juan Brito and Brayan Rocchio.
Francisca, who won’t celebrate his 19th birthday until May, appears to be next in line. He ended last season with his first taste of action outside the complex, hitting .325/.402/.402 against Carolina League competition that was on average 2.5 years his senior. (For reference, Jaison Chourio broke out last season with that same affiliate by posting an OPS that was just 10 points superior.) Francisca’s game is currently built around taking walks, making a lot of contact, and finding holes with his ground balls — that last part limits his slugging capacity, making it something he’s likely to focus on heading forward.
Nevertheless, Francisca’s stock is going to jolt up if he produces similarly over a full season in A-ball.
3. Teddy McGraw, RHP, Seattle Mariners
McGraw has been on prospect radars for years. Unfortunately, repeated arm trouble has prevented him from making good on his immense upside. He’s already required a pair of Tommy John operations (the most recent of which wiped out his 2023 season), and he was shut down prematurely last year because of arm tightness. Ruh roh.
The reason the Mariners were willing to use a third-round pick on McGraw in summer 2023 is because there are some intriguing right-tail possibilities here. He has a lively arsenal, including a plus slider. The Mariners have also excelled at pitching development in recent years, suggesting they have a chance at unlocking the most from his game.
Of course, it’s fair to question if McGraw will ever stay healthy. It’ll just take one hearty and hale year from him to catapult up prospect lists — why not this year?
4. Charlee Soto, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Don’t be fooled by Soto’s bloated 5.23 ERA in his introduction to pro ball: he still possesses the mid-rotation upside that led the Twins to draft him with the 34th selection in 2023.
The key to Soto’s ascent may entail prioritizing a new lead fastball. He’s a powerful righty capable of slinging mid-to-upper-90s heaters over the plate. Alas, his four-seamer features dead-zone qualities, however, meaning that the pitch is easier for batters to track visually because it moves about an equal amount horizontally and vertically. Soto’s sinker, then, grades as the better pitch and could turn him into a ground-ball monster based on its 58% rate in 2024.
The rest of Soto’s broad arsenal shows promise, particularly a changeup that generated a 43.9% whiff rate. He’ll need to throw more strikes as well, but he’s entering his age-19 season in a good spot overall.
5. Jonah Tong, RHP, New York Mets
It’s fair to write that Tong broke out last season, compiling a 3.03 ERA and a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio while starting 23 times across three levels. But this piece’s premise isn’t so much “will perform better” as it is “will boost their stock.” The uniqueness of Tong’s profile means that he’s going to need a little more runway before everyone is comfortable ranking him highly.
Indeed, Tong’s game begins with an unusual and extreme release point. He doesn’t just feature crossfire action, he also throws over the top. In the process, he creates some tough angles on the opposition as well as some unusual movement profiles — particularly with his low-90s fastball, which features more than 20 inches in induced vertical break. (For reference, no MLB qualifying starter had more than 19.9 inches in 2024.) Accordingly, his fastball posted a 48% whiff rate in 19 Florida State League appearances. His cutter/slider and downer curve were both over 50% as well.
Again, Tong doesn’t have the standard profile. It’s fair to want more data and frame of reference before going all in. Some more success at Double-A should be enough to convince people he’s legit.
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