It would be inaccurate to describe New Year’s Day as the midway point of Major League Baseball’s offseason: 62 days have passed since the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series, and the 2025 regular season won’t officially begin for another 77 days. Nevertheless, I’m going to do it anyway because the math almost works out and there’s a nice touch of symbolism to using the start of a new year to demarcate the offseason.
With that in mind, I’m using this opportunity to provide a reset of sorts for my free-agent rankings. Below, you’ll find analysis on the top 10 remaining players on my list, as well as my updated predictions on where they’ll land before the spring starts. As always, hold it close to your heart that this is more of an art than a science.
Let’s get to it.
1. Alex Bregman, 3B (originally No. 3)
Bregman is the only member of the original top five left unsigned. It’s not for a lack of interest. He’s been linked to several clubs throughout the winter, including the Yankees, Tigers, and Red Sox. (The Astros too, of course, but Houston has since added Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to man the corner infield positions.) I predicted that Bregman would sign a six-year pact worth $162 million back in November; he’s reportedly since declined a six-year offer from the Astros worth $156 million that suggests he’s aiming even higher. I’m more confident in Boston’s willingness to spend than Detroit’s, and that’s a reasonable determiner if you ask me. Prediction: Red Sox
2. Roki Sasaki, RHP (No. 7)
My free-agent rankings are based on expected average annual value, but I took some creative liberties with that methodology to slot in Sasaki as high as I did. Remember, he’s subject to MLB’s rules regarding international amateur free agents because of his youth and limited professional experience, meaning he can sign for only as much as a team has in international bonus pool money. In theory, Sasaki’s limited earning potential should make his free agency an open affair. I’m still sticking with my original guess. I may not know what, precisely, Sasaki values most in his employer, but the Dodgers seem to offer any and everything a player could want: excellent player development staff; prestige; championship aspirations; and even some familiar faces in Team Japan teammates Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Prediction: Dodgers
Now that Corbin Burnes has found a home, Flaherty is the best starter left on the market with MLB experience. You could make the case that he should wait until after Sasaki signs, paving the way for the big-market teams that lose out on Sasaki to pivot in his direction. I think a reunion with Baltimore makes a lot of sense on paper as well, in part because Flaherty doesn’t require draft-pick compensation. Prediction: Orioles
Say it with me now: modern front offices do not value non-elite right-handed first basemen. For as productive and talented as Alonso is, it never seemed likely that he would prove to be the exception. The one wild-card scenario, I suppose, was if a new executive (say, Buster Posey) eschewed that thinking to add a proven run producer to their lineup. That hasn’t happened yet, though, and the longer this drags on the more likely I think Alonso is to return to the Mets. Prediction: Mets
Scherzer made it clear that he intends to pitch in 2025. There hasn’t been much buzz on him all winter, however, suggesting that his market may not heat up until after Flaherty and Sasaki’s situations are resolved. I expect him to join one contender or another ahead of spring training, with the identity of that squad hinging on how those aforementioned free agencies play out. Here’s a swing in the dark. Prediction: Padres
Kim’s free agency is complicated by the season-ending shoulder surgery he underwent late in the summer that will sideline him for most, if not all of the first half. There are only so many teams willing to invest in a player who they know won’t be available to them for much of the upcoming year. This is total guesswork, but the Braves make sense on a few levels, including upgrading over Orlando Arcia for the stretch run. Prediction: Braves
Santander’s market seems a little too quiet for a 30-year-old switch-hitter coming off a 44-homer season. Such is life anymore for non-elite corner bats. I’m penciling in the Blue Jays here because they’ve been connected to several top free agents this winter, suggesting they’re at least somewhat open to making further additions. Plus, Toronto could certainly use an upgrade in the corner outfield or at DH. Prediction: Blue Jays
The top of the relief market has yet to thaw out. It doesn’t help that some teams have approached Hoffman with the intent of starting him, making this a little less straightforward of a situation than it appeared back in November. I’ll take the coward’s way out and predict that the Phillies retain him — as a reliever. Prediction: Phillies
Profar is a difficult player to evaluate: all the underlying measures indicated that last season contained real gains. At the same time, teams are right to be skeptical about age-31 breakout efforts. For those reasons, Profar’s top outcome always seemed to be returning to the Padres. Who knows, maybe one of the teams who came up short on Teoscar Hernández — be it the Red Sox, Mets, whoever — decides to chance it with Profar in case he can put up another year like last. Prediction: Padres
As noted with Hoffman above, most of the winter’s high-end relievers remain unsigned. Scott’s an obvious target for every contender and was linked to both the Yankees and Dodgers earlier this winter. The Yankees have since traded for Devin Williams while the Dodgers have yet to add anyone to their bullpen. The Dodgers don’t lose a lot of bidding wars, so we’ll go ahead and pencil them in. Prediction: Dodgers
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