The final day of the 2024 MLB regular season has arrived. Maybe. It’s complicated. For at least 28 of the 30 teams, Sunday is indeed the final day of the regular season. Game 162 of 162. Things aren’t that simple for the Braves and Mets though.
Ten of the 12 postseason berths have been decided, including all six in the American League. All the remains in the Junior Circuit is some wild-card seeding. Nothing terribly important. Two wild-card spots remain up for grabs in the National League though, and they could be decided as soon as Sunday evening or as late as Monday night.
Here are the postseason brackets heading into Sunday’s action:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Yankees and No. 2 Guardians
Wild Card: No. 6 Royals/Tigers at No. 3 Astros (winner plays Guardians)
Wild Card: No. 5 Royals/Tigers at No. 4 Orioles (winner plays Yankees)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Dodgers and No. 2 Phillies
Wild Card: No. 6 TBD at No. 3 Brewers (winner plays Phillies)
Wild Card: No. 5 TBD at No. 4 Padres (winner plays Dodgers)
Those TBDs in the National League bracket will be two of three teams: the Braves, Diamondbacks and Mets. The Braves and Mets are scheduled to play a makeup doubleheader Monday at Truist Park, though there is a scenario in which both teams clinch a postseason berth Sunday, and the doubleheader can be avoided. Here are the NL wild-card standings:
- Padres: 93-68 (+5 GB) (clinched top wild-card spot)
- Braves: 88-71 (+1 GB)
- Mets: 87-72 (.5471)
- D-backs: 88-73 (.5466)
The Mets and D-backs are in a virtual tie for the third wild-card spot, though Atlanta has as many as three regular-season games remaining, so they could fall out of a playoff berth entirely despite entering Sunday a game up. As a reminder, all 15 games begin at roughly 3 p.m. ET on Sunday to maximize drama. Here’s what’s at stake on the final day of the regular season proper.
The AL’s No. 5 and 6 seeds
Tigers vs. White Sox (TBA vs. RHP Jonathan Cannon)
Royals at Braves (RHP Alec Marsh vs. RHP Charlie Morton)
The Royals and the Tigers are already locked in as the No. 5 and 6 seeds, we just don’t know in what order yet. Detroit will be the No. 5 seed with a win OR a Royals loss Sunday. The Royals need a win AND a Tigers loss to be the No. 5 seed. Again, both teams have already clinched postseason berths. All that remains for them is seeding, which isn’t particularly high-stakes.
How the Braves can clinch
Braves vs. Royals (RHP Alec Marsh vs. RHP Charlie Morton)
Atlanta has the most straightforward path to a postseason berth Sunday. They’ll clinch a spot with a win OR a D-backs loss. They can not be eliminated Sunday, and if they do clinch a spot, Monday’s doubleheader would only decide seeding for Atlanta. There would be no incentive to go all-out in those two games.
How the Mets can clinch
Mets at Brewers (LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Colin Rea)
Like the Braves, the Mets can not be eliminated Sunday, but they can clinch a postseason berth. They need a win AND a D-backs loss to clinch a spot. If they clinch a spot Sunday, Monday’s doubleheader would only be necessary to determine seeding. If the Braves and Mets both clinch Sunday, commissioner Rob Manfred can cancel the doubleheader and decide seeding another way, presumably using head-to-head record (Atlanta leads the season series 6-5). For fans of chaos like myself, that’s the worst-case scenario. We want meaningful baseball Monday.
How the D-backs can clinch
D-backs vs. Padres (RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. LHP Martín Pérez)
The D-backs are in the most dire situation because they lost the tiebreaker (i.e. season series) to both the Braves and Mets. They can still clinch a postseason spot Sunday though. A win AND losses by both the Braves and Mets punches Arizona’s ticket. In that case, Monday’s doubleheader would be necessary to decide the other spot between the Braves and Mets.
All the possible NL wild-card scenarios
There are eight possible outcomes for Sunday’s Braves, D-backs, Mets quagmire. Here are all eight:
|
W |
W |
W |
ATL WC; NYM needs 1 win Monday; ARI needs 2 NYM losses |
|
W |
L |
W |
ATL WC; NYM WC; ARI eliminated |
|
W |
W |
L |
ATL WC; NYM needs 2 win Monday; ARI needs 1 NYM loss |
|
W |
L |
L |
ATL WC; NYM needs 1 win Monday; ARI needs 2 NYM losses |
|
L |
W |
W |
ATL and NYM need 1 win Monday; ARI needs ATL or NYM to sweep |
|
L |
L |
W |
ATL WC, NYM WC; ARI eliminated |
|
L |
W |
L |
ARI WC; ATL needs 1 win Monday; NYM needs 2 wins Monday |
|
L |
L |
L |
ATL WC; NYM needs 1 win Monday; ARI needs 2 NYM losses |
Got all that? There’s only one scenario in which Monday’s doubleheader is not absolutely necessary: Mets win and D-backs lose Sunday. Doesn’t matter If the Braves win or lose. That would lock the Braves and Mets into the final two wild-card spots, send the D-backs home, and allow Manfred to use the tiebreaker to decide seeding rather than the doubleheader.
The juiciest scenario involves the Braves losing Sunday and both the Mets and D-backs winning. In that case, the Braves and Mets would both go into Monday’s doubleheader needing one win to clinch a spot. So, why not agree to forfeits? One team forfeits the first game, the other team forfeits the second, and you’re both in without burning out your pitching before the Wild Card Series.
That would never happen, of course. Manfred would, presumably, invoke the commissioner’s “best interests of baseball” authority to make the Braves and Mets play Monday’s doubleheader to avoid the farce of two teams clinching postseason berths via forfeits. If they play, the team that wins Game 1 of the doubleheader would have no incentive to play hard in Game 2 though.
The Royals and Tigers are in. They just need to decide who is what seed Sunday. In the NL though, we’ve got this chaotic three-team race for two postseason berths that could spill over into Monday. In a screwed up way, the Braves and Mets will be rooting for each other Sunday. They want each other to get in to avoid the doubleheader.
Read the full article here
