Has everyone had time to catch your breath? We only had one game on Thursday, but it was as dramatic as they get. The Wild Card Series absolutely delivered plenty of late-inning drama, even when leads didn’t change hands. Saturday brings us four games, maybe the last time with four games in a day in 2024, so hopefully it’s more of the same.
As I’ve warned before, there will be a little overlap — at least with the three latter games — so be prepared to attack this thing with multiple screens.
Let’s grab some gambling plays while we’re here, too.
LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
The Guardians won the season series seven games to six, though the Tigers outscored them by 10 and none of those games came in the final two months when the Tigers got hot. Let’s keep in mind, though, the Guardians were 50-30 at home.
My stance on this series is that the Guardians are better, the Tigers can’t be counted out and it’s extremely unpredictable from one game to the next. That doesn’t make it very easy here in the gambling world.
As for this game, the Guardians’ absurdly good bullpen is rested thanks to their bye and will be able to shorten the game if needed. Bibee can also be extremely stingy, too. The Tigers will look to piece this thing together the way they did Game 2 in Houston.
The play: First five innings, under 3.5 total runs (+100)
I mentioned Game 2 of the Tigers-Astros series and this was the exact play I had there. It was 0-0 through five, as I said it probably would be.
I don’t think there will be much scoring at all in this game, but the scoring that will happen is going to take place later in the game.
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
The Phillies were the better team by six games, were an MLB-best 54-27 at home and won the season series, seven games to six. But the Mets actually had the best record in baseball after June 2 and won three of four the last time these two teams saw each other while the Phillies were only 33-33 after the All-Star break.
The Phillies were able to rest this week while the Mets had to play five games in four days before their day off to travel to Philly on Friday. The Mets are riding a wave of vibes after all these dramatic games.
The play: Zack Wheeler under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-105)
The Mets offense scored zero runs between the second inning in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series and the ninth inning of Game 3 and that was against pitchers who weren’t close to Wheeler’s level (few are, to be fair). Maybe the day off will help, but the point is that they can be shut down and I like Wheeler here. He only allowed two earned runs against them on Sept. 22 in seven innings. I know we need fewer than that, but he’s at home now. He had a 2.31 ERA at home this season.
He’s going to dominate for around seven innings.
A good aspect of this play is we very likely get to avoid any possible late-inning fireworks from the Mets’ offense ruining our fun.
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Gerrit Cole
The Royals are fun and absolutely could win this series. They have strong starting pitching and a young superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. The Yankees are undoubtedly the better team, though. They went 5-2 against the Royals this season, outscoring them by 18. The Royals were only 41-40 on the road in the regular season before winning two one-run games in the WCS.
The plays: Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120); Aaron Judge over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-145)
I like the Yankees to take this game and that means the offense likely revolves around the two superstars. During the regular season, Soto averaged 2.56 H+R+RBI per game while Judge averaged 2.82.
You know how easy it would be to hit both here? Soto singles and Judge homers or Soto doubles and Judge singles him home. One fell swoop. Let’s just get it done in the first inning and then enjoy the rest of the game without sweating.
RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Dodgers had the best record in baseball with 98 wins, despite being ravaged with injuries basically all year. The Padres had the best record in the second half and dealt with injuries of their own. Including their two playoff wins, the Padres are actually 45-19 since losing their first game after the All-Star break. They are also an NL-best 48-33 on the road. The Dodgers, though, are 52-29 at home. The Padres won the season series, eight games to five. But the last time they played each other, the Dodgers won two of three to put the division away.
Get the picture? This could go either way and these teams are playing like powerhouses.
The play: Padres +114
If it can truly go either way, I’m just gonna take the plus money.
The Padres had great success against Yamamoto this year. Even if you wanted to throw out the debacle on Opening Day in South Korea, they scored three runs — on two homers — in five innings against him next time. Since returning from a shoulder injury, he’s only averaged four innings per start. I love how the Padres’ offense looks right now, too.
It’s not without concern. Cease looks unhittable in stretches, but he was lackluster his last time out (5 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and that was in Dodger Stadium, just like this one. The Dodgers’ offense is loaded and has Shohei Ohtani at the top. He stole 43 bases in his last 75 games.
Speaking of, let’s grab another.
The play: Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-150)
The odds of this hitting are pretty strong, that’s why there’s juice. It’s not prohibitive precisely because the chances are so strong. He averaged 2.9 H+R+RBI per game this season. Sitting in the leadoff spot in front of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — not to mention how big a basestealing threat he is now — he’s nearly a sure thing to score a run once he’s on base.
The list goes on: He’s better at home, he’s better against righties, he had a two-RBI double last time he saw Cease, etc. Hard to bet against him.
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