After two games with New York winners on Monday, we head into Tuesday ready for Game 2 of the ALCS while the NLCS combatants get themselves settled in the Big Apple after a cross-country flight. In advance of ALCS Game 2, let’s grab some gambling plays.
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Gerrit Cole
Bibee had a 3.47 ERA in the regular season, but he posted a 2.76 ERA on the road and it was 3.01 in the second half. In the playoffs, the Guardians have removed him after 4 2/3 innings and then 4 innings, respectively. None of the Guardians’ top relievers worked in Game 1 and there is a day off before Game 3, so that means they could be ultra-aggressive here if they so choose. Bibee has faced the Yankees once in his career, but that his second-ever MLB start on May 2 last season.
Cole had a 2.25 ERA in his last 10 regular-season starts and that even included one meltdown (seven runs in 4 1/3 innings on Sept. 14). He then was not very good in Game 1 of the ALDS, but bounced back with a big outing in the clinching Game 4 (7 IP, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K). He faced the Guardians on Aug. 22 this season, pitching six scoreless innings of one-hit ball, though he did walk five.
The play: Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)
Two straight games hitting this prop, so why wouldn’t I run it back? Soto looks great right now with six hits, three RBI and two runs through five playoff games. Many of the factors I’ve already mentioned apply, such as the cushy lineup spot and loving the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. Bibee gets hit harder by lefties, such as Soto, and is more homer-prone on the road, too.
The play: Yankees -1.5 (+130)
Including both the regular season and playoffs, the Yankees are 5-2 against the Guardians with a +18 run differential here in 2024. They are pretty clearly the better team and missed several opportunities to score more runs in Game 1. Yes, I’m aware that you could say the Guardians handed them three of the five runs, but those count. I think Cole is gonna deal and the Yankees’ bullpen is very impressive right now. The Yankees offense won’t go crazy, but it won’t need to. The Guardians will be held down and the final score will be similar to Game 1.
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