The 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is heating up. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
There just isn’t a meaningful difference between these teams at the moment. Both are missing key parts: Jalen Johnson for Atlanta and Jalen Suggs for Orlando. The Hawks have a +0.7 net rating since Johnson went down. The Magic have a -2.2 net rating since they lost Suggs. The Hawks have other injuries, and Orlando has home-court advantage, but a five-point spread on teams in the same range is excessive. In such games, the team with the better half-court shot-creator tends to have a major advantage. Not only do the Hawks have that player in Trae Young, but the player Orlando would use to guard him, Suggs, is obviously out. The last time these teams met, Young posted 28 points and 10 assists. The game before that, it was 38 and six. Without Suggs, he’s going to control this matchup. The Pick: Hawks +5 (via FanDuel)
I’d normally loathe laying seven points in a play-in situation, but the Grizzlies present a unique exception. Forget about actually beating a winning Western Conference opponent, they haven’t even covered a seven-point spread against one of the seven West teams above them in the standings since Jan. 30. No, really: they pushed a seven-point spread against the Lakers on March 29, but they have otherwise played eight combined games against the Thunder, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves and Warriors and lost all of them by eight or more. They’ve been a mess against the NBA’s best teams for three months now. Why would that trend end now? The Pick: Warriors -7 (via FanDuel)
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