NBA Rookie of the Year rankings: Stephon Castle, Jaylen Wells in a close two-man race for No. 1 spot

With two weeks left of the NBA regular season, we’ve reached the point on the schedule where we see all sorts of wacky stat lines and teams tanking incredibly hard, along with some of the best and worst performances from rookies. First-year players either hit a wall and their production falls off a cliff, or they continue to rise, setting the stage for a potential breakout in Year 2.

On teams headed for the lottery, we see the young guys get more opportunity and free reign over the offense. Rookies are getting more prominent roles even on playoff- and play-in-bound teams. Matas Buzelis is the perfect example of that. When the season started, he was being herded between the Bulls and the G League, but after a trade deadline that saw Zach LaVine go to Sacramento, a role has opened up for him in the starting lineup. 

In the 22 games he’s started since early February, he’s averaging 12 points and four rebounds and had a career-high 31 points against the Lakers just last week. He’s received praise from Kevin Durant and had several eyebrow-raising highlights hinting at his future potential. Buzelis’ presence has also coincided with the Bulls going on a bit of a run down the stretch, winning nine of their last 11 games. Maybe this is the start of a budding foundation for Chicago.

With just two weeks left in the regular season, let’s take stock of where the NBA Rookie of the Year race stands.

In the last six games, Ware has been on a tear. He’s averaging almost 15 points and 10 rebounds on 65.6% from the floor and has been one of the few bright spots amidst a stretch where the Heat have gone just 6-13 since the All-Star break.

Ware feasted on Golden State’s lack of size in a matchup against the Warriors, where Jimmy Butler’s return was supposed to be the main attraction. The Heat prioritized getting him the ball in pick-and-rolls and just throwing it up near the rim, hoping he’d corral it for a dunk, which he did.

But Ware has shown more than being just a lob threat. He’s shown flashes of having a more expansive offensive game, with various floaters in the paint, and has knocked down the occasional 3-pointer, too. His size is an obvious plus as a rim protector, which is beneficial to have next to Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt, which has the potential to be a strong defensive duo.

Sarr has come a long way from that Summer League performance, which had many questioning just how much time it would take for him to develop. Since missing three games in late February, he’s putting up 15 points and nearly seven rebounds, and his best performance of the season came in a 34-point outing in a win against the Denver Nuggets.

During that game, Sarr showed off his range, going 5 of 9 from 3-point range, and took advantage of what was oftentimes a breakdown in communication from Denver’s defense, which allowed him to get easy looks around the rim.

Sarr’s defense was ahead of his offense to start the year, so to see him blossom as a scorer as the season winds down is a positive sign for a Wizards team that will be headed back to the lottery at season’s end with hopes of drafting Cooper Flagg. If Washington does land Flagg, pairing him with Sarr will give the Wizards a ton of length and size, and with the progression Sarr’s shown this season, that duo has the potential of being franchise-altering for a team that has struggled to get out of the basement of the league.

There was a game in early March against the Grizzlies that you could point to as a prime example of why Risacher was selected No. 1 overall in the 2024 draft. He finished with 27 points on a ridiculous 11 of 13 from the floor, including 5 of 7 from deep, but it was how he got his points that stands out.

While over half of his points came off 3-pointers where he’s just waiting in the right spot for Trae Young or Dyson Daniels to feed him the ball, Risacher also moves so well without the ball to create opportunities for himself. He runs the floor incredibly well in transition, knows when to cut, how to space the floor properly and where to move to keep himself ready for a scoring opportunity. 

Early in the season, when Risacher struggled with his efficiency, his confidence never wavered. He was never hesitant in letting it fly, even if he had missed the previous five shots. Now that the numbers are evening out, he’s having a more significant impact on both ends of the floor. He’s much more than just a spot-up shooter, too, which he’s shown over the course of the season. 

Wells had been in the front for this award, in my opinion, for most of the season. There hasn’t been a more impactful rookie this season in terms of impacting winning. Wells is going to end the season leading the Grizzlies in most minutes played, which wouldn’t be that big of a deal if it weren’t for the fact that Memphis is going to finish somewhere between No. 4 and No. 6 in the West, so pretty atypical for a rookie to be leading a playoff contender in minutes.

The Grizzlies, though, have been dealing with injuries all season and Wells has been the pain relief to take those issues away. It’s not that he’s just a serviceable rookie you can throw out there for major minutes; he’s taking on the toughest defensive assignments and isn’t struggling to keep up. Defense is where rookies take the longest to develop, but Wells came in and immediately dispelled those long-held beliefs.

The raw numbers don’t jump off the page, so he’s an atypical person you would think of to win Rookie of the Year. But this has been an atypical class. It took a while for everyone on this list to find their footing, but Wells was a permanent starter by Game 6 of the season. It didn’t take long for Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins to see what he had in Wells: a hard-nose defender who is going to work his butt off to stay connected to his man, and an efficient scorer who knows how to play within a role. 

Those two things are attributes every team in the league is looking for, and the Grizzlies found it early with Wells. Being guarded by Wells is like trying to run away from a bee that keeps chasing you. It’ll hover around with its annoying buzzing noise, and when you try to walk (or run) away to lose it, somehow, it ends up finding you again.

Wells has the size to guard multiple positions and can overwhelm smaller guards with his size and length. He can guard as big as Kawhi Leonard or as small as Jalen Brunson and everything else in between. Memphis has entrusted him to defend some of the best players in the league on a nightly basis, and while you’ll get the occasional rookie lapses, the Grizzlies will take that because of all the positives he brings on that end of the floor.

Just look at this three-minute video for proof of his defensive prowess. Wells is going to pick you up 94 feet, stay up in your space and make life incredibly difficult.

And that’s just on defense. Wells may not be a prominent feature for Memphis’ offense, but he shines in his role as a 3-point shooter. He’s also capable of attacking off the bounce, too. The only reason I have him slipping just a bit in these rankings is the major dip in efficiency over the last month. He’s shooting just 31.6 percent from the floor and 26.3% from deep in March, a steep decline from the 45/38 splits he averaged through February. His production on offense has fallen off, but the impact on defense is still there, which is why I have him tied with the next guy on this list. 

There isn’t a rookie having a better month than Castle, who is by far having his best stretch of the season right now, averaging 20.1 points, 4.7 assists and 4.6 rebounds on 47% from the floor during that span. In the last month, what we’ve seen from Castle shows exactly why he’ll be the perfect backcourt mate to De’Aaron Fox and next to Victor Wembanyama for the long haul. 

The 3-point efficiency has been the major reason for this scoring boon, but think of it as a valuable asset in Castle’s scoring arsenal, not the main draw. Getting downhill is where he’s most dangerous, where he has the size and strength to finish through contact. He does a great job of crashing the offensive glass to get second-chance buckets, and when he’s playing off-ball, which will probably be how he’s used most often when sharing the floor with Fox, Castle has a great feel for knowing when to cut and how to create opportunities for himself.

All of that was on display in a 32-point outing against the Thunder in early March, where Castle almost finished with a double-double with eight rebounds, four of which were on the offensive glass. 

The versatility Castle brings on offense will make the Spurs a difficult team to guard once Wembanyama’s back in the fold next season. He can act as the secondary creator next to Fox, be an off-ball threat, and on defense, he will pick up tough assignments and attack them straight on. We’ve already seen him hold his own against Stephen Curry, which is perhaps the toughest challenge there is in the league.

Castle started his rookie campaign slow, and his efficiency is still not as consistent as it needs to be, but he’s come on strong in the last half of the season. Since Jan. 1, he’s leading all rookies in scoring, is fifth in assists, fourth in steals and has a true-shooting percentage that is practically even with Wells. 

While Wells has the team success to back up his performance, Castle has the nightly production and has been trending upwards as the season comes to a close. And it’s not just putting up empty stats against bad teams — he’s certainly doing that too. He’s hanging 20+ points on playoff contenders, many of which have been close games.

It’s hard to ignore how Castle’s been closing the season, and with the opposite directions he and Wells have gone in over the last month, it’s allowed the Spurs rookie to jump slightly ahead in his race. However, Wells has been consistent until the last month, which is why I have them basically tied as the season closes, with the slight edge going to Castle.