The Denver Nuggets are in an intense battle to be a top-4 seed in the Western Conference and to secure home-court advantage for at least the first round of the playoffs. The Nuggets sit at 43-25 on the season, tied for second with the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. While they won’t catch the Oklahoma City Thunder at 56-12, the Los Angeles Lakers are lurking behind them at 41-25. Denver can’t afford many more slip-ups if it wants the No. 2 seed, especially after a surprising 126-123 home loss in its last game to the Washington Wizards.
The Nuggets have only gone 4-4 so far in March, despite Nikola Jokic putting up an insane stat line of 29.3 points, 13.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game in those eight contests. Jokic and the Nuggets now enter a tricky part of the schedule as they play four consecutive road games—with three of them against playoff teams. The first one takes place Monday, as the Nuggets head to the Bay Area to face off against the Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET. The Warriors are surging after having won their past seven games, and are only 3.5 games out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
In this critical matchup, Denver opened as a 2.5-point road underdog to Golden State, but this spread has climbed up to Denver +4.5. The Warriors are -183 (bet $183 to win $100) on the money line according to SportsLine consensus, while the Nuggets are +152 (bet $100 to win $152).
But what if you want to bet on player props, particularly on whether an epic Jokic performance can snap Golden State’s winning streak? The SportsLine model has you covered. It continuously refreshes the most recent available data and can help you spot the biggest discrepancies in the lines. The SportsLine model, which can be found on every game forecast page on SportsLine under the “Prop Picks” tab, assigns ratings of up to five stars for each projected value play on every NBA slate. Those picks can be integral to building winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy and in same-game parlays on any betting site.
Let’s check out the SportLine model’s three highest-rated player prop recommendations for Nuggets-Warriors and see what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay — and check out the optimal same-game parlay for every game on Monday’s NBA schedule at SportsLine.
Nikola Jokic Under 52.5 points + assists + rebounds (-122): 4 stars
There are four 4-star recommendations for this affair, and all of them involve Jokic. Betting a Jokic Under can be scary but the Nuggets big man hasn’t cleared his points + assists + rebounds prop in four of his past five games against winning teams. The SportsLine model likes that trend to continue, projecting 46.4 points + assists + rebounds against the Warriors.
Stephen Curry Under 26.5 points (-130): 3 stars
Another superstar under? Why not! There’s a small edge for Curry points against the Nuggets, which the SportsLine model has calculated at 26.2. He’s also come up short on his points prop in each of his past five home games against bottom-10 defenses, averaging only 21.0 points over that stretch.
Stephen Curry Over 3.5 rebounds (-162): 3 stars
Let’s make this SGP more cheery by including one over, with the SportsLine model spitting out 4.4 rebounds for Curry. That edge makes it worth including as the third leg despite having to lay -162. In his last five games against opponents with winning records and bottom-10 defenses, Curry has averaged 6.6 boards and gone Over this prop four times.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +421
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