The Denver Nuggets are in position to clinch home-court advantage in the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs, needing a win over the Houston Rockets Sunday to officially lock up the No. 4 seed. After firing head coach Michael Malone shortly before the postseason, the Nuggets will attempt to make another title run behind three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic. The Rockets have already secured the No. 2 seed in the West, but look to be playing their top guys in this contest with only Jae’Sean Tate ruled out on the official injury report.
Jokic has posted a triple-double in his last three games, officially cementing a triple-double average for the 2024-25 regular season. The big man is coming off a strong showing against the Grizzlies with 26 points, 13 assists and 16 rebounds in a 117-109 win. Amidst the turmoil going on behind the scenes, Jokic continues to put up great numbers and keep the Nuggets in the conversation when it comes to title contenders.
The Nuggets are 9-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, priced at -395 (risk $395 to win $100) on the money line. The Rockets are +313 (risk $100 to win $313) underdogs on the money line, with the total set at 234.5.
But what if you’re looking at betting player props, particularly on Jokic turning in a monster stat line? The SportsLine Projection Model has you covered. It refreshes the most recent data and can help you spot discrepancies in the lines. The SportsLine model, which can be found on every game forecast page on SportsLine under the “Prop Picks” tab, assigns ratings of up to five stars for each projected value play on every NBA slate. Those picks can help build winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy and in same-game parlays on any betting site.
Let’s check out the SportsLine model’s three highest-rated player prop recommendations for Nuggets-Rockets and see what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay — and check out the optimal same-game parlay for every game on Sunday’s NBA schedule at SportsLine.
Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 points + assists + rebounds (-120): 4 stars
Jokic didn’t play in the first two meetings between these teams but has gone Over his PRA line in three of the last four games. However, this is a spot where he potentially underperforms. In his last five matchups as a road favorite against a team with a winning record, Jokic has fallen short of his PRA line four times. The SportsLine model projects him at 45.2 PRA Sunday.
Aaron Gordon Under 21.5 points + rebounds (-120): 3.5 stars
Gordon has been inconsistent of late, posting 38 points + rebounds in two of his last five games but going Under 18 points + rebounds in two others. The forward is projected for 18.6 points + rebounds Sunday in SportsLine’s model. In his last five games on the road against a top-10 defense, Gordon has gone Under his points + rebounds line four times.
Christian Braun Under 2.5 assists (+104): 3.5 stars
Despite going Over on his assists prop four times in the last five games, Braun is entering a tough matchup Sunday. In his last five road games, he’s gone below his assists mark four times. The SportsLine model projects him at 2.2 assists in this contest.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +586
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